Whole of Italy on lockdown due to COVID-19

[Monster7 5,697]

5 minutes ago, Faysalaaa said:

The good news is during summer, the virus will start dying specially in hot countries.

South European countries in two months

[Eido 3,681]

7 minutes ago, Faysalaaa said:

The good news is during summer, the virus will start dying specially in hot countries.

Is that you trump? 

As of right Now, the virus is not dying anywhere in the southern hemisphere... And it's summer there

[Maarck 194]

We are locked until 3rd of April. It’s necessary because there are too many people affected by the virus. I don’t know how the situation is in other countries but I suggest you to stay at home as long as you can

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Eido said:

Is that you trump? 

As of right Now, the virus is not dying anywhere in the southern hemisphere... And it's summer there

I love how confident you are to call me "Trump" when you are the one who is misinformed. Most caronaviruses decline during warmer weather, but scientists are not 100% sure about this specific carona. And its not widely spread in the Southern Hempisphere.

This is not about your personal politics and hate for Trump, stop politicizing everything and actually care about the issue.

"Another factor that could potentially slow the spread of coronavirus is the changing of the seasons.

For a variety of reasons, some viruses — but not all — become less transmissible as temperatures and humidity rise in the summer months. The viruses themselves may not live as long on surfaces in these conditions. Also, human behavior changes, and we spend less time in confined spaces. “A lot of how the outbreak ends or at least how things progress in the next few months really depends on if this is seasonal,” Grubaugh says."

Source: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
 

 

[Miaou 39,013]

Wow just wow  

[Luc 4,776]

1 hour ago, Karl said:

I understand that it's a brand new virus without a vaccine and that it is obviously dangerous to older people, but at the same time, so is the Flu, and we don't close borders every year when that happens. Just all seems a bit extreme to me for the amount of deaths that have occurred which is very few. 

Disclaimer: I'm not here to cause panic, I'm here to get rid of the delusion that it's something alike the flu. If you're a person who panicks too easily, don't read.

[SPOILER]

The average infected of this virus infects about 2.5 more people. If I had the virus, I would give the coronavirus to 2(.5) people, those would give it to 6 others, those to 16, those to 39, those to 97. If you count these all up, you go from 2 to a total of 160 infected in just 5 sequences.

In just 17 such sequences, you're at 60 million, or almost all of Italy.

Compare that to the seasonal flu, with an R0 of 1.3 people. That means that it would've taken 60 of these sequences to reach the 30 million affected last season in the US. Basically, the coronavirus spreads around 4 times as fast. Of course, you can't get the virus twice, so the R0 slows down over time, but this applies to both the coronavirus and flu equally and thus my comparison stands.

 

Then we have to consider the death rates. The death rate of a seasonal flu is 0.1%. That means that 30 million affected in 60 'sequences' led to 30000 deaths. The death rate of the coronavirus is around 4%. That means that 60 million affected would lead to 1.5 million deaths in just 17 'sequences'. 

 

The flu is seasonal. We know it will have largely disappeared by April. We can't say that about the coronavirus yet. There's absolutely no reason to assume it will disappear in summer just yet.

 

Basically, the coronavirus is far more contagious and far more deadly.

[/SPOILER]

 

I don't actually expect the coronavirus to get that far. Washing your hands, not touching your face, avoiding physical contact with people, sneezing in your elbows, not travelling between states let alone countries, putting people in quarantaine, it brings the R0 down significantly. Look at Shanghai for example, which (with 22 million people) only has 400 infections, despite being an economic centre in China. What Italy is doing right now is approaching the Chinese strategy, which helped bring the R0 near zero, leading to the virus almost disappearing from China by now. But if you want to avoid having so many people die (like in the worst-case scenarios), you will have to contain the virus at an early stage. Italy is already quite far, if they had let it spread a month longer we'd be looking at at least 40000 deaths and 1 million affected. Western Europe should take similar measures, and so should US states with outbreaks. Because if we let it spread for long, our hospitals get full, and people who would've otherwise survived the disease won't because they don't get the care they need. We should be reasonably panicked, which means doing more than what Western Europe and the US are doing right now, preferably taking the Italian strategy a week before you're at the stage where Italy is right now (and in Western Europe and some US states, we're a week or week and a half before where Italy is right now).

Not taking this disease seriously puts you in the same category as anti-vaxxers, putting yourself and your surroundings at risk.

[TimisaMonster 31,073]

Woah...this is getting to become more and more like a movie...wtf

[littlepotter 76,610]

1 hour ago, Sailor Joon said:

I really love Italy (who doesn't), but I'm kind of disappointed by Stupid Love's performance there, especially since Gaga mentions that she's Italian like every other hour, so this might be like God's punishment or something 

SIS EYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Akiki 3,900]

1 hour ago, Varys said:

I wonder why the death toll in italy is so high compared to other countries 

Maybe the italian population is older and ill. 

[AJM 1,520]

This is really scary. I hope everyone in Italy is okay and stays safe. 
 

it’s worrying for us in the UK because our PM is basically saying “wash ya hands lol” and that’s about it. 
 

I am worried because where I live in the UK is holding one of the biggest horse racing event in the year as of tomorrow. Hundreds of thousands from the country and Ireland are coming here for a whole week, infact one case was confirmed here this morning. 
 

I am actually working at the racecourse this week and the amount of texts I’ve had from them saying to always wash my hands and take extra precautions is ridiculous. People are calling for it to be cancelled but we will see what happens 

[Miaou 39,013]

Italian government is taking the right decision 

Macron should take notes. Still no measures in France while the cases are now almost at 1500 (+300 in the last 24 hours) and 30 dead

This is a mess 

[Thrasher 22,980]

I'm Italian and I reckon that's the better thing to do. Until some hours ago, the country was just divided into two zones (one dangerous and on lockdown and the other one not) but that sounded simply a foolishness. This way, everybody should feel his sense of civic duty and understand what's right to do and what's not. 

There's literally no room in intensive care anymore in hospitals. We can't reach the point when doctors have to choose who's better to be admitted to hospital and who's not (even if we're already in that phase probably), the virus has to be contained. That's how they've sorted out things in China.

[Whispering 18,865]

1 hour ago, Faysalaaa said:

The good news is during summer, the virus will start dying specially in hot countries.

They don’t know if this will react like the regular flu or not, in being seasonal:

 

Marc Lipsitch, DPhil Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

“Several people, including the US president, have suggested that the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes, COVID-19, will go away on its own in the warmer weather that will come in the Northern Hemisphere in coming months. Some have even suggested that the experience with SARS in 2003 provides evidence for this assertion.

The short answer is that while we may expect modest declines in the contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 in warmer, wetter weather and perhaps with the closing of schools in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, it is not reasonable to expect these declines alone to slow transmission enough to make a big dent.”

[Eido 3,681]

1 hour ago, Faysalaaa said:

I love how confident you are to call me "Trump" when you are the one who is misinformed and uneducated on the subject. Most caronaviruses decline during warmer weather, but scientists are not 100% sure about this specific new carona yet. And its not widely spread in the Southern Hempisphere.

This is not about your personal politics and hate for Trump, stop politicizing everything and actually care about the issue.

"Another factor that could potentially slow the spread of coronavirus is the changing of the seasons.

For a variety of reasons, some viruses — but not all — become less transmissible as temperatures and humidity rise in the summer months. The viruses themselves may not live as long on surfaces in these conditions. Also, human behavior changes, and we spend less time in confined spaces. “A lot of how the outbreak ends or at least how things progress in the next few months really depends on if this is seasonal,” Grubaugh says."

Source: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
 

 

Lsjsjdhhdjsh

I was just joking about the fact that Trump said this sentence and that it sounded like you quoted him. But ok I guess 

[Enomis 333]

As an Italian and a med student, I believe it's the right decision.

CoVid-19 doesn't seem to be extremely virulent, but we've got a free National Health System in Italy. It'll collapse if the number of old patients admitted to ICU doesn't decrease.

We cannot afford it economically and we'd face serious  difficulties in providing health assistance to  citizens.

What is truly important right now (for us and for every citizen of any nationality) is to follow some basic lifestyle procedures (such as washing hands frequently and trying not to be close to another person, at least less than 1 meter).

The virus is circulating fast and has already spread everywhere very likely. Numbers are gonna only increase. But we gotta collaborate all together, all over the world, to face this emercengy.

Patients with comorbilities and the old ones  could face serious polmonitis (also death) potentially. Moreover, there are countries with poor medical equipment or prevention policies. We have to protect these fragile categories.