Tom Steyer ends presidential campaign

[Morphine Prince 109,656]

 

[FATCAT 60,888]

I think everyone saw this coming. Expect a couple dropouts after ST too.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

41 minutes ago, FATCAT said:

I think everyone saw this coming. Expect a couple dropouts after ST too.

It'll depend on the margins of Bernie's delegate lead most likely.

If it is under 350 (which is very possible esp. if Biden gets 15% in Cali (he's currently around 8% or so) then Pete/Amy will be free to drop out because it'll have done enough damage to Bernie's lead for a contested convention where they will take the nomination from him. Gabbard is a rogue agent at this point. Warren is likely going to stay in all of the way to the convention, I think - even if she loses MA, because she isn't running to win, she's running to have bargaining power with her few hundred pledged delegates at a contested convention.

There's no way a contested convention results in a unified party to defeat Donald Trump though. 

[weed 78,937]

the most wholesome nominee (at least irrelevant enough for dirt to be brought up or I just don't know ****)  I hope he's content 

[Bt1 5,213]

6 hours ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

It'll depend on the margins of Bernie's delegate lead most likely.

If it is under 350 (which is very possible esp. if Biden gets 15% in Cali (he's currently around 8% or so) then Pete/Amy will be free to drop out because it'll have done enough damage to Bernie's lead for a contested convention where they will take the nomination from him. Gabbard is a rogue agent at this point. Warren is likely going to stay in all of the way to the convention, I think - even if she loses MA, because she isn't running to win, she's running to have bargaining power with her few hundred pledged delegates at a contested convention.

There's no way a contested convention results in a unified party to defeat Donald Trump though. 

I cant with you people. Buttigieg and Amy will only hurt Biden and Bloomberg, not Bernie. 

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

12 hours ago, Florin said:

I cant with you people. Buttigieg and Amy will only hurt Biden and Bloomberg, not Bernie. 

Most recent national poll has Buttigieg supporters 2nd choice being Bernie for the first time this cycle. As of now, him dropping out would help Bernie more than other candidates, who would have more spread out distributions.

Amy is a ??? but doesnt have significant support nationally in the first place and only really exists at this point in Minnesota. So, she's out of the race after ST I think. I don't see another reason to stay in for her, and she will have 0 bargaining power at the convention as well.

[Bt1 5,213]

3 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

Most recent national poll has Buttigieg supporters 2nd choice being Bernie for the first time this cycle. As of now, him dropping out would help Bernie more than other candidates, who would have more spread out distributions.

Amy is a ??? but doesnt have significant support nationally in the first place and only really exists at this point in Minnesota. So, she's out of the race after ST I think. I don't see another reason to stay in for her, and she will have 0 bargaining power at the convention as well.

 2nd choice polls are complicated.  There is probably a reason why there arent many around.

I believe more other metrics. For example, we saw Biden going down in the polls when Bloomberg got up. We saw Bernie going up when Warren went down. I dont remmember seeing polls where something similar happened with Buttigieg and Bernie. However in Iowa, NH and Nevada we saw Biden, Pete and Amy fighting for similar voters and when one did better, another one lost some points. 

[President Biden 5,898]

28 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

Most recent national poll has Buttigieg supporters 2nd choice being Bernie for the first time this cycle. As of now, him dropping out would help Bernie more than other candidates, who would have more spread out distributions.

Amy is a ??? but doesnt have significant support nationally in the first place and only really exists at this point in Minnesota. So, she's out of the race after ST I think. I don't see another reason to stay in for her, and she will have 0 bargaining power at the convention as well.

most recent national poll also had Bernie nearing Biden in SC. Look what happened. Polls don’t mean ****.

 

on the other hand, as a Buttigieg team member who closely follows his staff & even talks to some of them, most are NeverBerniers. They also disdain Liz and Amy a fair amount. Most likely his high level endorsements & supporters would back Joe. Also likely Pete endorses Joe and gets an endorsement to run for Senate/Governor or top choice cabinet role.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

2 minutes ago, Florin said:

 2nd choice polls are complicated.  There is probably a reason why there arent many around.

I believe more other metrics. For example, we saw Biden going down in the polls when Bloomberg got up. We saw Bernie going up when Warren went down. I dont remmember seeing polls where something similar happened with Buttigieg and Bernie. However in Iowa, NH and Nevada we saw Biden, Pete and Amy fighting for similar voters and when one did better, another one lost some points. 

So, because there aren't an overwhelming number of second choice breakdowns in polls, we should look at even more subjective observations about "who goes up when compared to others" to find the truth?   That doesn't follow. You can't just look at a result and guess how it happened, you have to at least be informed at the possible explanations for the phenomenon. Looking at data crosstabs in depth would tell you why those things happened and help you make predictions in the future.

Also, there are a decent amount of polls with second choice breakdowns in their cross tabs that simply don't publish them in headlines or create elaborate graphics to display these points if you dig deeply. There are other interesting data points that don't get talked about, but are I would say relevant. Morning Consult is a B/C rated pollster for their general just result predictions, but their breakdowns are very detailed and have been pretty good so far.

The dynamics you are talking about were entirely predictable in the way they went, even if #s are flexible. As someone that follows polls pretty extensively, it actually isn't that complicated. For every candidate other than Bloomberg we now have a year's worth of polling, and we know what the demographic base of every single candidate is (bloomberg is shaky, but we have an idea) because of how consistent it is. So, Bernie going up when Warren goes down we could more accurately say it was actually Bernie gaining her support for a myriad of factors beyond just him having a + and her having a -. Similarly, we know why Bloomberg and Biden are connected based on what demographics of people move between the two. Bernie has benefitted from the Moderate vote being mostly undecided, changing all the time, and from the fact that while he has his own lane (no one else does even close to as good as he does with younger voters, very liberal voters, latinos of all ages, or independents) he also does decently with the core base of every other candidate, coming in 2nd or 3rd. He has the most evenly split and literally diverse base (which is already an amazing sign towards general election strength, Dems ignoring all of this are stupid as hell) The only real significant deficiency he has at this point is with conservative older AA voters (which is what happened in SC), but even then he has gained since the beginning of the race and since voting has started. He has made a decent amount of gains with older voters in general, improving from beyond only an 18-29 stranglehold to now winning nationally with 18-55 voters. 

There havent been an influx of polls showing a Pete fall Bernie rise or vice versa because there just havent been many polls since this flip happened, which was like 2 days ago  Also, there hasnt been much in terms of media narrative that has been a +/- to Bernie or Pete. Bernie came out of the debate unscathed nationally and even CBS debate watchers rated him the best. Pete was also pretty solid, so there isn't reason to expect some kind of shift yet. It's just an emerging dynamic, and we will see how it plays out. Pete is also fundraising by being Anti-Bernie pretty explicitly. His entire campaign now is a Third Way inspired "lets take out Bernie!" machine, so it could still change if he gets more effective lines of attack.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

30 minutes ago, Halsey said:

most recent national poll also had Bernie nearing Biden in SC. Look what happened. Polls don’t mean ****.

 

on the other hand, as a Buttigieg team member who closely follows his staff & even talks to some of them, most are NeverBerniers. They also disdain Liz and Amy a fair amount. Most likely his high level endorsements & supporters would back Joe. Also likely Pete endorses Joe and gets an endorsement to run for Senate/Governor or top choice cabinet role.

No it didn't.

A National Poll is literally NOT a SC poll by definition  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/south-carolina/

He was clearly projected to win SC by double digits even going into SC with a 41-25 distribution, and even though some polls showed him nearing Biden, we know from exit polls that a decisive factor was Clyburn's endorsement. It essentially negated the +s Bernie had been making with Black voters in the weeks and month or so up to SC. Steyer also underperformed.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/national/

^ These are unrelated.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Scroll down to Second Choice. He is at 21%, Biden and Warren are both at 19%

And just to be frank, knowing his staff =/= knowing the voters opinions. Each candidate only really has some degree of influence, but no control over their supporters. That's why reports of a "Klobuchar go to make Biden viable" "Klobuchar go to make Warren viable" alliance between those 2 camps in IA was ineffective. They ended up going to Pete on second choice, which was predictable based on second choice polling, even if their campaigns tried to sway them another way.

[Bt1 5,213]

4 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

So, because there aren't an overwhelming number of second choice breakdowns in polls, we should look at even more subjective observations about "who goes up when compared to others" to find the truth?   That doesn't follow. You can't just look at a result and guess how it happened, you have to at least be informed at the possible explanations for the phenomenon. Looking at data crosstabs in depth would tell you why those things happened and help you make predictions in the future.

Also, there are a decent amount of polls with second choice breakdowns in their cross tabs that simply don't publish them in headlines or create elaborate graphics to display these points if you dig deeply. There are other interesting data points that don't get talked about, but are I would say relevant. Morning Consult is a B/C rated pollster for their general just result predictions, but their breakdowns are very detailed and have been pretty good so far.

The dynamics you are talking about were entirely predictable in the way they went, even if #s are flexible. As someone that follows polls pretty extensively, it actually isn't that complicated. For every candidate other than Bloomberg we now have a year's worth of polling, and we know what the demographic base of every single candidate is (bloomberg is shaky, but we have an idea) because of how consistent it is. So, Bernie going up when Warren goes down we could more accurately say it was actually Bernie gaining her support for a myriad of factors beyond just him having a + and her having a -. Similarly, we know why Bloomberg and Biden are connected based on what demographics of people move between the two. Bernie has benefitted from the Moderate vote being mostly undecided, changing all the time, and from the fact that while he has his own lane (no one else does even close to as good as he does with younger voters, very liberal voters, latinos of all ages, or independents) he also does decently with the core base of every other candidate, coming in 2nd or 3rd. He has the most evenly split and literally diverse base (which is already an amazing sign towards general election strength, Dems ignoring all of this are stupid as hell) The only real significant deficiency he has at this point is with conservative older AA voters (which is what happened in SC), but even then he has gained since the beginning of the race and since voting has started. He has made a decent amount of gains with older voters in general, improving from beyond only an 18-29 stranglehold to now winning nationally with 18-55 voters. 

There havent been an influx of polls showing a Pete fall Bernie rise or vice versa because there just havent been many polls since this flip happened, which was like 2 days ago  Also, there hasnt been much in terms of media narrative that has been a +/- to Bernie or Pete. Bernie came out of the debate unscathed nationally and even CBS debate watchers rated him the best. Pete was also pretty solid, so there isn't reason to expect some kind of shift yet. It's just an emerging dynamic, and we will see how it plays out. Pete is also fundraising by being Anti-Bernie pretty explicitly. His entire campaign now is a Third Way inspired "lets take out Bernie!" machine, so it could still change if he gets more effective lines of attack.

Wow. U really like to write long comments, no matter how many times people ask u to keep it a little shorter. 

How many polls did u saw where Bernie was the second choice for Pete supporters? With what numbers? Because if it is something like : bernie 20 biden 19 bloomberg 18 and 40% undecided or not supporting another candidate, this conversation is so unnecessary. 

2nd choice polls with 6 candidates in the race are stupid. That's my opinion. U can like it or not. We will never know who is right, because no one is dropping from the race, so let's move on.