Sanders leading in new Iowa poll

[derpmonster 22,412]

39 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

PS back in October where was everyone saying Sanders should withdraw so Warren can win? Seems like it only ever goes one way.

Because one of them is simply a better candidate, someone whose voting record shows they oppose war as opposed to empty promises. 

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

30 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

I don't think it's to prop up a centrist (despite whatever people like Ryan Grim may have written on the topic); factually speaking, Bernie Sanders was just as hyped by mostly-young people back in 2016 and wasn't able to turn that into a nomination either, so until the polls show Bernie with a real lead, what reason would any journalist have to posit that he's in the lead? They can't write their polling coverage based on who gets the most applause at a debate or who draws the  biggest crowd at a rally.

So, Bernie didn't win in 2016, therefore there is no reason to report on him favorably this time even when he does well? Is that your position? Because if not you might want to read this again and reflect.

I didnt suggest they say "Bernie is winning the nomination!" when he is not, that would be highly presumptuous (though Biden has not been seen with the same scrutiny, there is always a "presumptive" lead from the DNC + Dem establishment)

He has the highest average of polls in Iowa now, not because hes been losing them all, but because he has been in first place in several, and second as well. It is not too much to ask that they accurately cover that, don't put Elizabeth Warren as second when she's third, don't abuse cross tabs of their own polls/pollsters, and give every candidate their due diligence regarding their chances of winning. Most people who watch CNN or even MSNBC probably don't know that Bernie is doing well, is in second place and has a serious chance of winning the nomination because the way they discuss him doesnt suggest that. They however might believe Buttigieg is still the rising star who is going to win the whole thing once he wins Iowa "just like Obama"  

Also... They literally do discuss crowd sizes and "biggest applause" when it comes time to do actual "analysis" of their findings and reportings? Buttigieg and Warren both had coverage on these things   

 

[HorusRa2 5,005]

1 hour ago, PoshLife said:

Funny, I never see polls posted here that show Biden in the lead, like yesterday's polls of Nevada and South Carolina. Selection bias, mayhaps?  

Anyway, comparing today's poll to the most recent poll from the same pollster (from back in early November) finds that in that timeframe, Buttigieg has fallen WAY down and Sanders has moved up several points, while Biden and Warren are basically exactly where they were. (If you're comparing this poll to any other recent poll from a different pollster, you're ignoring house effect.)

I certainly don't expect Biden to win in Iowa, given it's a caucus state and caucuses tend to favor the most passionate people who can afford to spend hours of their time caucusing. Things will continue changing particularly as there's a debate coming up in Iowa later this month, but if this poll ends up being the result, all four of them will get delegates (you have to reach 15% of the vote). FiveThirtyEight wrote recently that Biden can most afford to lose Iowa compared to the other frontrunners and still end up with the most  total delegates: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-the-front-runner-but-there-is-no-clear-favorite/

It's an interesting poll, but it's just one data point. Put it with the others.

We don’t have a national primary. It’s state by state. And if you wanna talk selection, I mean morning consult shows a statistical tie between Bernie and Biden among Super Tuesday states as a whole. 

Yes Biden is leading is Nevada and SC but if he places 3rd or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire, *I* guarantee you he loses NV and only wins SC with single digits. He’ll enter Super Tuesday with no delegate lead and then when Bernie smashes in CA after winning 3/4 early states Bernie leaves Super Tuesday with a small lead and Biden crumbles from there. 

[MJHolland 12,725]

4 hours ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

They literally aren't, the MoE is 3.7% amongst "likely" voters, and 1.8% amongst simply "Registered" voters.... Bernie is at 20% and Biden is at 15%. Even if you want to argue that 20 and 17% are within the MoE, that would mean that Bernie and Warren are in a statistical tie for first, but it still places at least Biden in a tie for second, and possibly Buttigieg depending on how even that "16%" is.

But that isn't actually important to my point, which is one about framing.

CNN has taken similar "margin of error" polls that have put Buttigieg, Warren, and Joe in first, second, third, and even fourth, and had headlines that just say "X is in first place" or even the most iconic "a strong fourth place for Buttigieg" but the second Bernie is in first close to Iowa, its a "tight race." Let's not act like we don't know how media bias affects our beliefs and assumptions  

In fact, many people have made little image compilations throughout the last year of CNN's incredibly lax framing of polling data compared to independent (and even other partisan) sources. 

 

 

That’s not how MEO works my fiends 

Based on sampling, Biden could be 3 points higher AND Sanders 3 points lower

Aside from MEO, this poll shows the race in is extreme flux and changing very quickly, probably on a weekly basis 

Its very much a toss up at this point 

[RAMROD 118,171]

Boot Edge Edge

[Economy 53,171]

I notice Iowa gets mentioned a lot in election why is that? doesn't it only have like 3 million people?

 

Does it have disproportionately more electorial votes or something? What makes it so important?

[pachinko 10,775]

Bernie has my vote and donations! 

[Morphine Prince 110,034]

10 minutes ago, Economy said:

I notice Iowa gets mentioned a lot in election why is that? doesn't it only have like 3 million people?

 

Does it have disproportionately more electorial votes or something? What makes it so important?

It’s the first state where votes will be cast. February 3! So the media coverage the winning candidate gets is crazy and can boost a campaign. Iowa is also a swing state in the general.

 

[Economy 53,171]

2 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

It’s the first state where votes will be cast. February 3! So the media coverage the winning candidate gets is crazy and can boost a campaign. Iowa is also a swing state in the general.

 

I know it's a swing state but I know there's much bigger swing states like Florida

 

But I didn't know it was the first tho.

 

In my Country the election is just a 1 time and 1 day thing, we don't even elected party leaders . US election is so complicated by comparison 

 

[Morphine Prince 110,034]

1 minute ago, Economy said:

I know it's a swing state but I know there's much bigger swing states like Florida

 

But I didn't know it was the first tho.

 

In my Country the election is just a 1 time and 1 day thing, we don't even elected party leaders . US election is so complicated by comparison 

 

Get ready for the meltdowns and drama less than a month from now

 

[Economy 53,171]

10 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

Get ready for the meltdowns and drama less than a month from now

 

Sure why not. US elections are like a soap opera with heavy drama and media influence. Feels more like a reality tv show than democracy tbh. I live for each episode

 

Here in Canada election campaign time lasts usually about 7-8 weeks (it can vary a bit by year) and then it's only 1 day to vote. Quite boring by comparison 

 

The messy thing is tho that unlike the US where a term lasts 4 years everytime, here a minority Government can result in elections every 1-2 years

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

27 minutes ago, MJHolland said:

That’s not how MEO works my fiends 

Based on sampling, Biden could be 3 points higher AND Sanders 3 points lower

Aside from MEO, this poll shows the race in is extreme flux and changing very quickly, probably on a weekly basis 

Its very much a toss up at this point 

You're right, that is possible, I derped  

However, It doesnt change my point that I keep having to repeat, which is that framing is important.

As I've said, it's not that its an unfair or inaccurate framing to say that this is a tight race, it is that they seem to selectively care when to employ such fairness. The Des Moines Register just flat out said "Bernie Sanders leads the Iowa Poll for the first time, just weeks before the Iowa caucuses" - which is also a fair framing. 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2020/01/10/iowa-poll-2020-bernie-sanders-lead-iowa-caucus-president-election/4426492002/

Now, if we're going to argue that all reporting on polls that take into account MoE should be similarly unbiased in their framing and headlining, so as to be entirely accurate, I would be happy to agree in theory, but since we've had to hear about "Pete Buttigieg comes in a Strong Fourth place" countless "Warren surging into the lead" (while being behind Bernie and sometimes even mixing up their poll data), "It's a two person race between Warren and Biden" (while still being behind Bernie), etc. etc. from this same network not to mention several other instances, you'll indulge me in my complaint.

[Bt1 5,213]

7 hours ago, Morphine Prince said:

Funny, you must have missed them because they have been posted in the past. Trying to point out selection bias that isn’t there, perhaps? 

Receipts? Where are the threads with the polls mentioned by that user? 

[Guillaume Hamon 7,057]

9 hours ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

CNN has taken similar "margin of error" polls that have put Buttigieg, Warren, and Joe in first, second, third, and even fourth, and had headlines that just say "X is in first place" or even the most iconic "a strong fourth place for Buttigieg" but the second Bernie is in first close to Iowa, its a "tight race." Let's not act like we don't know how media bias affects our beliefs and assumptions  

They're not even subtle at hiding who they want to push for while pretending to be neutral and fair lmao!

9 hours ago, M Monstre said:

but we really need Bernie. He can go toe-to-toe with Trump in a way that no other candidate can. 

True, nearly all the others candidates would have a certain number of  their past votes& statements used against them to portray them as hypocritical when they'll bash Trump for not doing this or that...

Sanders has a very consistent record overall  so he can't be "easily debunked overnight" as many of the dems running in this campaign...

9 hours ago, PoshLife said:

Funny, I never see polls posted here that show Biden in the lead, like yesterday's polls of Nevada and South Carolina. Selection bias, mayhaps?  

I mean  plenty of huge medias are doing a selective bias against Sanders all the time so showing that it's more nuanced with a voice that's not heard in most mainstream medias is surely needed lol.

Also nobody denied that Biden was leading nationally with a nice advance so far. When they show the good results of sanders they always put that in context so it's not a bias when you say it all and also discuss what's usually not commented much.  

[Guillaume Hamon 7,057]

4 hours ago, pachinko said:

Bernie has my vote and donations! 

Yaaaaaaay you're not having a daddy who can campaign for 2 different healthcare plans in 5  months anymore!

Welcome!!  .