DMR Iowa Poll: Pete Buttigieg Rockets To The Top As A Clear Frontrunner

[PartySick 172,436]

3 minutes ago, PunkTheFunk said:

Hillary won Iowa in 2016 and became the nominee

Obama won Iowa in 2008 and became the nominee (and president)

John Kerry won Iowa in 2004 and became the nominee

Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 and became the nominee

Wait

Now I'm legitimately (but mildly) concerned. I mean, we could definitely do worse but still

[Hybrid AT 78]

1 minute ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

We're months away from any actual votes being cast, Buttigieg has consolidated all of the millions he's taken from billionaires in the incredibly white state of Iowa, and it's... literally the only state where he's even remotely competitive.  He's double digits behind the rest of the competition in the national polling. 

The user who posted this is a hardcore Buttigieg stan and has been posting literally every single poll that's been good for him in an attempt to make him look like a top tier candidate when, in reality, all these polls really do is indicate that he's attempting to buy Iowa and is banking on white people to save his campaign. 

My goodness, you're SO delusional and such a Pete hater. I have to set this **** straight.

He has had over 600k+ donors that have donated to him (580k before Q3 deadline and 25k+ after Oct debate). He had "23 billionaires" that donated to him in Q2 the maximum legal amount of $2800 set by the FEC. As of 2019, there are 621 billionaires in the US. So if you're comparing the billionaire fraction you're focusing on 3.7% of the billionaires. And let's zoom out now. If you're comparing his billionaire donors to his total donors, the ratio is 23:600,000. That is 0.0038% of his donors. Now imagine how embarrassing you sound. His avg donation for Q3 was $32. 32 DOLLARS.  That's $6 more than Warren. He had no senate funds like Warren/Sanders to transfer from, a very small email list, no donor networks. He built his operation from scratch by working hard, making himself available to every media outlet possible early on in the race. If you're pressed, just say it, take the L and move along.

Are you saying everyone who's supporting him in Iowa is a billionaire? Jfc you're *this* close to slipping off the cliff of delusion. Watch your steps and you might actually fall off.

 

[Hybrid AT 78]

5 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

None of those people were polling at 0-1% with black people and losing in all other battleground states outside of the first four

 

I'm not trying to be a downer, but media loves cycles, and "Pete Buttigieg surging!" is a fun story for a few days at a time. It doesn't dismiss all of the polling data we have about general election matchups, voter demographics, and expected turn out - none of which has been kind to him  He's still in a solid 4th position across the country, with Kamala flopping and moving to 5th. The amount of support he would have to drain from Biden and Warren to win the nomination, before it becomes mathematically impossible for him to win enough delegates to be the nominee is a very high bar. Not impossible, but very very improbable given some kind of major scandal or amazing win or hit in a debate or town hall or something that is able to last for months. Obama did win Iowa and go on to be the nominee, but I've already discussed in length why that happened, the conditions that led up to it, and how they dont seem to be in force at all here. Pundits on MSM LOVE the "Iowa = you win" narrative, but its short sighted and clickbait.

Support him if you want - volunteer for him, get him more name recognition. But be cautiously optimistic, it just isn't very practical to throw your money behind a candidate that is uniquely unable to capture the third largest voting bloc in America after Latinos (who will surpass black people for the first time in 2020 by about 2 million potential voters.) He's not doing great there either.

 

He's in fourth position nationally BECAUSE of lower name recognition than Biden/Warren/Sanders. That's also why he's losing to Trump in head-to-head matchups right now. Most people have still not started paying attention to the race. Obama was known nationally far more then than Pete is at this stage. He was a Senator, Pete is a Mayor. And we're still 3 months away from primaries. Minority voters want to back someone who can actually beat the Republican candidate. If you don't think minority voters will not give him a second look if he wins Iowa and finishes top 3 in NH, then I say think again. They will. He might not win SC but he can still finish strong there.

[PartySick 172,436]

5 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

I have to set this **** straight

Why do you support Pete? Just curious since it's not a common stance here. Most people like Warren or Sanders more for obvious reasons.

Some like Trump but...they're weird...

I'd also like to hear the positives so I can delude myself in the event of his primary success should it happen

[Lion Heart 15,041]

18 minutes ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

 

[Othon 34,299]

22 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

My goodness, you're SO delusional and such a Pete hater. I have to set this **** straight.

...Delusional? You're the one creating threads every single time the guy currently in 4th place in the national polling (by double digits) has a decent poll in ONE early primary state while dismissing all of the legitimate criticism he's received for his record, his mediocre policy proposals, and his abysmal performance with non-white voters. 

You're also posting tweets from Buttigieg's own campaign staffers as hard, impartial evidence. 

22 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

He built his operation from scratch by working hard, making himself available to every media outlet possible early on in the race.

He's had an entire network of Washington insiders and former Democratic operatives sign onto his campaign, including countless wealthy, well-connected bundlers that have helped him raise millions of dollars. Hundreds of individuals and couples have raised over $25,000 each for the guy. The idea that he's built his campaign from scratch is... insane. 

22 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

Are you saying everyone who's supporting him in Iowa is a billionaire? Jfc you're *this* close to slipping off the cliff of delusion. Watch your steps and you might actually fall off.

Literally what the h*ll are you talking about?  The voters indicating that they might vote for him now (the vast majority of whom say they're not settled on any specific candidate), are not "all billionaires". I'm saying that he's backed by billionaires and wealthy interests and that they've helped him raise his money, which is an undeniable fact.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

2 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

He's in fourth position nationally BECAUSE of lower name recognition than Biden/Warren/Sanders. That's also why he's losing to Trump in head-to-head matchups right now. Most people have still not started paying attention to the race.

And we're still 3 months away from primaries. Minority voters want to back someone who can actually beat the Republican candidate. If you don't think minority voters will not give him a second look if he wins Iowa and finishes top 3 in NH, then I say think again. They will. He might not win SC but he can still finish strong there.

Sorry but this is heavily presumptuous. It's true he doesn't have the name recognition of Biden/Sanders/Warren (in that order), but that doesn't imply it is why he loses in head to head matchups. And there's no reason at all to assume that name recognition and more people starting to tune into the primary  will directly translate into support for him any more than it will for any other candidate  You like him yes, but people obviously prefer other candidates depending on their life experiences and political worldview, so there's no way to predict how people who are undecided or not paying attention will decide later. Just as much as you like him, those new people that are undecided or don't know who he is yet might entirely think hes hog-wash and ignore him. The only metrics we have that are remotely useful for predicting this come in second choice votes, the strength of the candidates support in their bases, existing trends in demographic support, and if the policies/messaging of the candidates are about reaching out to new people. Pete and Warren are big "second choice" candidates, and Bernie and Biden are big "first choice candidates" with Bernie having the distinction that a majority (Around 60%) of his support is solid and not looking to vote for someone else. You would have to break down the demographics of name recognition into specific distinctions for racial groups, ages, gender, etc. to really have a grasp on how those people might feel about him.

And there's no inherent reason why black people and latinos would jump from Biden to Pete any more than Bernie or Warren, both of whom could still win Iowa and also "finish top 3 in NH/SC"... That's just wishful thinking. They could, or they could not. Will some people who are skeptical about his "electability" be impressed by a win in Iowa and decent placings elsewhere? Yes, but I'm saying temper your expectations. Obama was a special case, not the norm.

 

[Hybrid AT 78]

15 minutes ago, PartySick said:

Why do you support Pete? Just curious since it's not a common stance here. Most people like Warren or Sanders more for obvious reasons.

Some like Trump but...they're weird...

I'd also like to hear the positives so I can delude myself in the event of his primary success should it happen

A lot of reasons.

I support him not only because he's intelligent and empathetic, but also has a very strong and comprehensive policy platform. I like a lot of his plans(full platform: peteforamerica.com/issues) – his M4A Who Want It gives people a choice between private insurance and public plan, his national service plan which makes national service voluntary and paid but gives people of different backgrounds an opportunity to come together, his mental health plan, his LGBTQ and women's agenda, his Douglass Plan which is the biggest and broadest anti-racist policy proposal that targets areas such as maternity crises, black entrepreneurship, home ownership, education etc. There's also the recently released veteran's plan and college affordability plan. He's also young, a millennial and has a 100k+ student debt between him and his husband so I trust him on issues like college affordability, climate change, technology and data privacy. And I love his husband Chasten, who's an amazing and kind human being, a public teacher and a strong advocate for children and I want to see him as the First Gentleman of The United States.

Most importantly, he's trying to unify the country which is sorely needed right now after Trump. He's a pragmatist who has a progressive platform but is trying to bring everyone in to the conversation. And as corny as it might sound, he does give me hope for a better future.

 

[Othon 34,299]

28 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

Sorry but this is heavily presumptuous. It's true he doesn't have the name recognition of Biden/Sanders/Warren (in that order), but that doesn't imply it is why he loses in head to head matchups.

This is so true. I mean, Bernie beat Trump by 10 to 15 points in head to head match-up polls in the 2015 and 2016 primary, and he was a virtual unknown with the entirety of the political establishment working to undermine his campaign, while Buttigieg has received glowing press from the time he entered the race. There's absolutely no excuse for those numbers.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

7 minutes ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

This is so true. I mean, Bernie beat trump by 10 to 15 points in head to head match-up polls in the 2015 and 2016 primary, and he was a virtual unknown with the entirety of the political establishment working to undermine his campaign, while Buttigieg has received glowing press from the time he entered the race. There's absolutely no excuse for those numbers.

I didnt even think of that. That's true.

Bernie's 2015 campaign compared to Buttigieg's 2020 campaign really shows a stark contrast. Both were deemed "meteoric" rises to political fame and stardom by MSM, but the nitty gritty between them shows their differences in support.

15 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

A lot of reasons.

I support him not only because he's intelligent and empathetic, but also has a very strong and comprehensive policy platform. I like a lot of his plans(full platform: peteforamerica.com/issues) – his M4A Who Want It gives people a choice between private insurance and public plan, his national service plan which makes national service voluntary and paid but gives people of different backgrounds an opportunity to come together, his mental health plan, his LGBTQ and women's agenda, his Douglass Plan which is the biggest and broadest anti-racist policy proposal that targets areas such as maternity crises, black entrepreneurship, home ownership, education etc. There's also the recently released veteran's plan and college affordability plan. He's also young, a millennial and has a 100k+ student debt between him and his husband so I trust him on issues like college affordability, climate change, technology and data privacy. And I love his husband Chasten, who's an amazing and kind human being, a public teacher and a strong advocate for children and I want to see him as the First Gentleman of The United States.

Most importantly, he's trying to unify the country which is sorely needed right now after Trump. He's a pragmatist who has a progressive platform but is trying to bring everyone in to the conversation. And as corny as it might sound, he does give me hope for a better future.

So hear me out. This is my point. The exact reasons yo've said that you support him are the exact reasons I DON'T support him. What is to stop any new or currently unrepresented or undecided vote from coming to the same conclusion as me? Nothing. Every campaign is about messaging, policy, ideology, and communication. Pete's messaging doesn't speak to me, or the intersection of  communities and identities that I live with in a positive way. Pete's messaging currently isn't speaking well to black people. What is to stop the new people that will hear about him from listening to what he says, and then just deciding they don't like him?

If you want that to change, go advocate for it, get black people to advocate for it as well. Just recently there was the issue of some black leaders who were touted as being in support of the Douglass plan, and they recanted and said they had not explicitly signed on to endorse it afterall - which makes him look bad. The stuff with the Police chief makes him look bad, etc. There are legitimate concerns from black people about his policy. If you think they are wrong, talk to them about it. As I said in my first post, I don't bring up his #s to be a downer. I believe hard work and collective action can bring about change, so if you believe in him as a candidate, go caucus for him, donate, be a dialer, volunteer, etc. It takes a village is an understatement. That's how Bernie Sanders went from a relative nobody as well to getting something like 43% of the vote in 2016 primaries.

[Seeka 12,372]

Pete's not gonna win but he's opening the door for future QUILTBAG candidates. 

He's cool and all but he cannot sweep America by storm. 

[MJHolland 12,725]

First they ignored, then they made fun, and now they attack.

Next step, we win Iowa.

Going to tag @OG Gaga Stan so they can slap me with that "Sad" react 

[Hybrid AT 78]

9 minutes ago, MJHolland said:

 

Going to tag @OG Gaga Stan so they can slap me with that "Sad" react 

I'm #TeamPete till the end. No matter how the primaries play out. 

[pachinko 10,753]

2 hours ago, ALGAYDO said:

Still don’t understand why any progressive would support something like him, but good for him. An openly gay man being so high in the polls is amazing, never thought I’d see the day. Hopefully we’ll get a good one next time! 

What's wrong with him? 

[FATCAT 60,886]

The thing is, Kerry won Iowa and became the nominee but Kerry wasn't 1st in the polls. Obama surged late but many weren't expecting him to win Iowa. As far as the race is concerned, it's tied up between the Top 4 and it will be until election night decides.