Bernie's base remains largely male; Biden draws in African Americans

[KleinGa 18,177]

As the dem race continue, a WSJ article provided valuable insight into the standing of each candidate with respect to voting demographics.

As shown, while Bernie has picked up in the amount of Latino voters which will help with already blue states such as California and might help with swing state Florida but he struggles significantly with the African American block and Women. Bernie's base remains largely male as he has the highest percentage of males supporting him.

Biden on the other hand takes the African American block easily and has a strong showing of both men and women. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/2020-democratic-voters-divided-down-demographic-lines-11573214403

 

[Guest]

This will all change once it becomes 3-4 candidates running instead of 20. Most people know nothing about the Candidates running, they go with who they know and familiar with specially that he worked with Obama.

[Lord Temptation 11,209]

Polls are still a thing huh 

[President Biden 5,898]

Biden is the only candidate carrying the African American vote, which is critical in the primaries

[Computer 10,980]

Maybe this is why I struggle with Bernie.  I'm not a Bro demographic and it seems like he has an issue connecting with other voters like me who aren't.  I guess what I'm trying to say is I feel like an old lady.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

This headline misses some important points present even in that article, but I get its probably supposed to be a huge gotcha to Bernie fans or invitation for his detractors...  However, its not because we generally pay attention to the news more intently than some other groups, not gonna lie.  Bernie's base is increasingly a young to middle age and diverse working class group of people. That's been pretty consistent for months now. It's not this all male, all white coalition that some people love to tout as "Bernie Bros"  

Bernie generally leads massively to moderately among young voters. It's not fair to say or even imply that Joe Biden has an informed coalition of black people who generally believe his vision is the best for (black) America evident in his support when his supporters are overwhelmingly  people above the age of 55 who are only mildly engaged politically if at all.

"Mr. Biden’s relatively weak hold on younger voters is apparent even among African-Americans. A substantial two-thirds of older African-Americans, those age 55 and above, say they back Mr. Biden in the Democratic primary, compared with about one-third of blacks under age 55." (emphasis added)

Many believe the elderly vote to be the most likely or important vote, and many polls systematically underrepresent the opinions of young people for this bias, true or not. However, this is  part of the how and why Bernie that was able to vastly overperform in 2016 against all of these kinds of polls and later went on to win or narrowly miss many primary states against Hillary Clinton who was at times polling with 40-60% approval at the beginning of the primary season after her announcing, almost double at times to what Joe Biden is polling in comparison. Yes, the field was essentially two people. Here, a big part of what is keeping Joe Biden insulated against criticism and falls is the size of the field, of which the DNC seems to have no vested interest in narrowing when it comes to debate thresholds... I'm no conspiracy theorist, but the fact is this is helping Joe Biden unduly.

At this point, Bernie, Warren, and *maybe* even Buttigieg could win Iowa. Joe could certainly lose it, and go on to only win South Carolina, while Bernie could take New Hampshire, Liz Nevada, and Buttigieg Iowa. (I don't think Buttigieg will win Iowa, but he has no chance at the nomination either way) I do think Joe needs to be taken down a peg, but smartly, but this race is still his to lose for sure.

[KleinGa 18,177]

3 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

That's been pretty consistent for months now. It's not this all male, all white coalition that some people love to tout as "Bernie Bros"

While it may not be all white, it is mostly male... How does the article dispute that? Im confused as to what you're trying to say. It's not male because it's young?

[Othon 34,299]

6 minutes ago, KleinGa said:

While it may not be all white, it is mostly male... How does the article dispute that? Im confused as to what you're trying to say. It's not male because it's young?

They're saying that these polls (which are conducted on landlines) massively oversample older, more affluent voters, which gives Biden and Warren a huge leg up. The polls over the course of the primary have consistently shown that young women make up more of Sanders' base than men do:

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/gyzjmb/bernie-bros-women-under-45-make-up-a-larger-share-of-bernie-sanders-base-than-men

The two polls this article is based on are pretty massive outliers, and the metrics are pretty suspect. Demographic polling has consistently shown over the course of the primary that Sanders' supporters are extremely diverse.

[Azor Ahai 18,861]

Biden getting black people to vote for him just because he was Obama's VP, meanwhile his policies are no good for their community at all. I really hope he doesnt get nominated.

[Marilyn MonHoe 11,011]

16 minutes ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

They're saying that these polls (which are conducted on landlines) massively oversample older, more affluent voters, which gives Biden and Warren a huge leg up. The polls over the course of the primary have consistently shown that young women make up more of Sanders' base than men do:

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/gyzjmb/bernie-bros-women-under-45-make-up-a-larger-share-of-bernie-sanders-base-than-men

The two polls this article is based on are pretty massive outliers, and the metrics are pretty suspect. Demographic polling has consistently shown over the course of the primary that Sanders' supporters are extremely diverse.

There is also this article that is based off of Pew Research data:

“Concerned citizens across the political spectrum are often guilty of wishfully thinking that, if they say something over and over (and over) again, it’ll magically become true. But new data from the Pew Research Center has refuted one of the most beloved political narratives of recent years. The research reveals that, contrary to popular belief, Bernie Sanders supporters are more female and less white than any of the leading 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. So much for the male, stale and pale Bernie Bro.

Based on polls of registered Democrat or “Democrat-leaning” voters, just 49 per cent of Sanders supporters are white. Elsewhere, white people account for 56 per cent of Joe Biden’s supporters, with Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren tallying at 59 per cent and 71 per cent respectively.

More women support Sanders than his two female frontrunner opponents too. Women make up 53 per cent of Sanders supporters, compared to 49 per cent of Warren supporters and 48 per cent of those who support Biden and Harris.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/sanders-supporters-bernie-bro-poll-less-white-women-2020-democrat-candidates-a9070531.html

 

Bernie has even more women supporters than Warren and Harris while having the least amount of white supporters. So much for the BeRnIe BrO narrative 

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

49 minutes ago, KleinGa said:

While it may not be all white, it is mostly male... How does the article dispute that? Im confused as to what you're trying to say. It's not male because it's young?

It's two things.

1) This means of polling has the potential (and often the history of, which is why I brought up 2016) to underrepresent potential voters and should be taken with a grain of salt specifically for Bernie who is running a campaign of grassroots outreach towards people that will be invisible in this kind of polling. The amount as to which is impossible to determine, but the existence is definitely confirmable, ala his massive overperformance in almost every place in the primary season last election cycle, especially in the places where he was expected to lose big.

2) Your framing isn't accurate even if we accept this poll as entirely correct.

You could have just as easily said "Biden's base remains largely old, Bernie draws in young people and strong Latinx communities" if you wanted to and that would also be evident in the data. That's why this article in WSJ is titled "The Voting blocs propelling Biden, Warren and Sanders" - its more responsible framing.

When you couple that with your own personal excerpts like "he (Bernie) struggles significantly with the African American block and Women" you're in the ballpark of misrepresenting things and it fits a certain narrative whether you mean for it to or not.  Bernie does not struggle significantly with African American voters, he has been since the beginning of his campaign the 2nd highest in approval and support with that group of people across the board, with the key distinction being correctly identified in this article of Age. That's why I pointed out the quote I did, your current post could lead people to make the assumption that this is not true, especially if it is the popular conception of the Sanders demographic.

 Secondly, many polling demographic breakdowns have put Bernie ahead in the women vote compared to Warren, again depending on age even recently. This one for example only has a difference between them of 6 points - This is a landline poll, but lets say its 100% accurate. That would still mean that he is is effectively  only 3 points outside of the margin of error behind Warren in support of women. In this case, a better title to address Sanders support amongst Women would be to say that he may be waning slightly, not that "he struggles significantly" or that his support  is therefore  "largely male" 

Even better, the graphics in this polling are wonky. Unless I'm misreading something, the divided pie chart would show that Bernie has 21% support of Democratic Men right now, but later in the article they say he also has 21% support of Women ("Despite Mr. Sanders’s appeal among younger voters, more women under age 55 say they support Ms. Warren than Mr. Sanders, 27% to 21%) yet this is depicted as being a less significant number. Why does this not reflect reality? If Bernie has 21% support among Democratic men AND women, why are we taking away "Bernie's support is mostly male" when this exact poll says otherwise? Why shouldn't it read :

 "Bernie has almost equal support of women and men, despite losing some ground with women recently to Warren" (as in, his previous polling would indicate he had stronger support from women than men, but this poll identifies that Warren is pulling away self identified liberal women with college degrees in the 18-39 bloc)

It's because of framing. I wish I could find the direct polling data this article pulls from but I can't seem to find their source beyond their reporting of the source, so I am pulling entirely from the article itself.

... If you want to look at "significant struggle" then talk about Pete Buttigieg's abysmal 0-1% approval with the black community across all ages, education levels, etc. Just to give an example of a fair, consistent polling # that is worth mentioning. Biden's coalition of support is mostly unenthusiastic or reluctant, and overwhelmingly old. You could say that it is "diverse" in the sense that its not only old *white* people, but there are more metrics to note when we see voting blocs that are frequently discounted in the grand scheme of things. This group of people are registered and intend to vote per WSJ's reporting, but that doesn't mean they will, we know that from exit polling etc. after every election.

TL;DR:

Bernie's support is not "largely" male and a large chunk of his support comes from people that are fundamentally underrepresented in this style of polling method (that is landline polls towards only registered voters that *intend* to vote), so we should be careful to make headlines like this that misrepresent reality, otherwise we should expect this polling won't be entirely accurate if it maintains this methodology when voting actually starts. 

[RAMROD 117,005]

"Bernie Bros" make sense now 

The polar opposite for MAGA Trumpsters. But as nasty and aggressive. President Coin to President Snow. 

[Whispering 18,865]

46 minutes ago, Azor Ahai said:

Biden getting black people to vote for him just because he was Obama's VP, meanwhile his policies are no good for their community at all. I really hope he doesnt get nominated.

They are historically pragmatic voters, who vote in a block. They vote for who they know and who has spent time building a relationship with their communities. They will switch only if it looks like another candidate is gaining ground and is going to be the nominee for sure. 

[KleinGa 18,177]

50 minutes ago, Azor Ahai said:

Biden getting black people to vote for him just because he was Obama's VP, meanwhile his policies are no good for their community at all. I really hope he doesnt get nominated.

I agree! Biden does not have what is needed to defeat Trump. I need the dems to wake up 

[Mister G 10,512]

5 minutes ago, KleinGa said:

I agree! Biden does not have what is needed to defeat Trump. I need the dems to wake up 

Why would they ever do that? Biden is the worst choice. I’d rather take my chances with Warren.