Economy 52,844 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/ According to CBC the largest Canadian News network, with a compiled number of different polls they have reached an estimated probability of the outcomes for election - 49% Chance Trudeau and Liberals will win but with minority Government - 11% Chance Trudeau will win enough seats for majority Government -37% Chance Conservatives will win by minority -2% Chance Conservatives will win by majority -1% chance of another unseen outcome Interesting to note Conservatives are expected to win popular vote but not the most seats A further rare turn of events, the left-wing NDP as usual are expected to get the 3rd most in popular votes but due to higher concentrations of supporters by region, the Bloc Quebecois may get the 3rd most seats this time even tho both the NDP and Green party are expected to get more general votes Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
March34th 1,973 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 i really don't like trudeau as a politician but i'd rather he get re-elected than the conservatives winning. although i'm voting green Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petie Estie 5,704 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Just to reiterate for anyone reading -- probability isn't the same as his polling numbers. In 2016 the american election was close, but hillary had enough of a polliing lead of like...5% nationwide that her probability of winning was like 80%. Just so happened that the outcome was part of the 20% of possible outcomes. Anyway I hope he wins so I don't have to worry about Canada along with the rest of the world. lol Call your therapist...it's Petie Estie Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJRocketMan 2,684 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 31 minutes ago, SEANGT said: Just to reiterate for anyone reading -- probability isn't the same as his polling numbers. In 2016 the american election was close, but hillary had enough of a polliing lead of like...5% nationwide that her probability of winning was like 80%. Just so happened that the outcome was part of the 20% of possible outcomes. Anyway I hope he wins so I don't have to worry about Canada along with the rest of the world. lol Hillary won the popular vote though, so while Donald Trump won, most people didn’t want him, and he was elected on unwelcome terms. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, SEANGT said: Just to reiterate for anyone reading -- probability isn't the same as his polling numbers. In 2016 the american election was close, but hillary had enough of a polliing lead of like...5% nationwide that her probability of winning was like 80%. Just so happened that the outcome was part of the 20% of possible outcomes. Anyway I hope he wins so I don't have to worry about Canada along with the rest of the world. lol They definitely are going district by district and seat by seat on the probabilities cuz even tho Conservatives likely have an edge on popular vote it looks like Liberals still have a likely edge on seats which is what counts for example the Bloc Quebecois have almost no voter support, but the few that do support them are concentrated in the same areas (mostly pockets in Quebec) which makes seat wins possible The NDP for example has the support of like a fifth of the population but its spread out Nationally and few areas have enough concentration for many seats to be won im surprised the NDP are polling so poorly tho. Usually they pull better numbers. They are expected to possibly loose half their current seats this election Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, AJRocketMan said: Hillary won the popular vote though, so while Donald Trump won, most people didn’t want him, and he was elected on unwelcome terms. Well thats how elections work the liberals arent forecast to win the popular vote here but likely will still win election Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinTrudeau 2,419 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 In before the election this Monday looks like this for the Liberals... I fell down the stairs once as an actor. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, JustinTrudeau said: In before the election this Monday looks like this for the Liberals... Yeah in rooting for the Liberals so hopefully they dont loose not cuz i love Trudeau or the Liberals but the main alternatives (Conservatives and NDP i think are worse) i often support the Conservatives but this time around they are promissing too many things i think are wasteful spending not to mention some bad ideas for the housing market in my opinion Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinTrudeau 2,419 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, Economy said: Yeah in rooting for the Liberals so hopefully they dont loose not cuz i love Trudeau or the Liberals but the main alternatives (Conservatives and NDP i think are worse) i often support the Conservatives but this time around they are promissing too many things i think are wasteful spending not to mention some bad ideas for the housing market in my opinion Even with the polls, I honestly have no idea where we will go. Guess we have 3 more days before we find out Also, I wish people vote more. There are so many advanced polls, and ways to mail in your vote. Universities had polling stations pop up (my university included) which made it easier for students/young people to show up. If we have a higher voting turnout, the results would be different. But atlas... I might see that 60% turnout rate again I fell down the stairs once as an actor. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 2 hours ago, JustinTrudeau said: Even with the polls, I honestly have no idea where we will go. Guess we have 3 more days before we find out Also, I wish people vote more. There are so many advanced polls, and ways to mail in your vote. Universities had polling stations pop up (my university included) which made it easier for students/young people to show up. If we have a higher voting turnout, the results would be different. But atlas... I might see that 60% turnout rate again Its such a tight race so yeah its hard to know Polls are considered to have a margin for error of up to 3% 19 times out of 20 The race is so tight that its well within the margin of error for polls so we could get some unexpected results Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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