Chances of Trump Winning 2020?

[NotMyFlop 1,979]

Dreadful as it sounds, Trump winning re-election is a very plausible concept; one that Democrats should not shrug off. 

Republicans, under the pretense of the wall, are unifying. Culturally speaking, the narrative is that conservatism (and the values within that time) are being bullied, threatened and lamented. Republicans are acting like it's this culture war; a war with dire consequences. This is dangerous for LGBTQIA+ and persons of color. In the case of Covington Catholic High School (and about any scandal from the administration), we are seeing that Republicans are willing to abandon all morality in order to obtain that power. Extreme forgiveness, for even the grossest sects of their base, is a crucial strategy for them in 2020. These people will ultimately pull Trump to another four years. 

Impeachment, of course, is not a radical concept anymore. With 34 officials falling at the hand of Mueller's two-year-long investigation, the bets (and rumors) are saying Donald Trump Jr could be the next. If "Individual 1" is, in fact, Trump himself, then we can hope that the investigation's conclusion comes quickly and the punishment is swift and harsh. In all honesty, the results of the investigation are the key factor in 2020.  If Trump is indicted, well then Democrats almost surely will glide into the presidency. If Trump is never indicted, it would nail the "witchhunt" narrative, and would easily allow him reelection and a Republican president for likely a decade or more. 

Democrats are (currently) very united: they are pushing climate control, expanding rights for everyone, Medicare for all, etc. It's a fairly consistent platform and the energy to rid of the toxicity in the administration. That is good news. However, there are currently 11 Democrats in the race for 2020. Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden could run -- and Beto O'Rourke is going to make a decision before the end of this month. The party unity will inevitably not last; the 15 potential candidates will have to begin separating themselves from the pack -- prove WHY they are worthy for the office. This was the same reason Democrats became so divided in 2016. People were too invested in their candidate to vote for another. Democrats have to play very smartly in this cycle in how they handle opponents. 

Democrats have the younger vote essentially secured. With four more years of Millennials and Gen-X individuals (hopefully) voting and four more years of baby boomers passing away, that leaves the field even more unpredictable than 2016.  We need younger people to vote, but historically, they will not. 

2020 will be an interesting cycle. Where 2016 was off-the-walls and unhinged a majority of the time, I expect 2020 to be more calculated and strategic. Trump can't afford insane antics to carry him again, but he also can't afford to not appeal to the people whose antics inspire. Democrats can't rely on a moral superiority complex and expect to be handed the win. 

2020, in my opinion, will literally be an election of morality. 2016 was defined as the "who is the lesser of two evils", but this will be "what is right and what is wrong". 

My odds are currently set for 60% chance Democrats winning, 40% chance Trump wins. 

What are yours? 

[FATCAT 60,909]

50/50, leaning towards Dems. Everything is on the line.

[NotMyFlop 1,979]

1 minute ago, FATCAT said:

50/50, leaning towards Dems. Everything is on the line.

The only reason I currently have Democrats with the edge is because of the Shutdown. That was a colossal failure on Trump's end. Folding to Pelosi even peeved his base. That's not something that will be forgotten.  

[Married the Night 3,955]

Trump will be re-elected.

[rumours 45,521]

Depends on who the Democratic candidate ends up being

[weed 79,277]

We should impeach him a few months before re-elections so he can't run and americans will hopefully not elect Mike Pence  

[DeleteMyAccount 11,881]

Supreme Court. That's what's on the line. I mean, the line has been crossed already, but with RGB.. yea I don't want to take any chances.

[Retron 2,605]

About the same as in 2016. 

Everyone I know pretty much think he's over, no chance.

That's very much not the case. He can absolutely win again.

[SiliconeMonster 1,617]

More likely than I think we're willing to admit. It depends strongly on the choice of Democratic candidate which I fear will again screw us over. Hopefully he loses but the fact that he made it to the White House in the first place makes me lose faith.

[Robo Ga 15,617]

I have a very bad intuitive feeling he will win again. 

 

[PunkTheFunk 125,733]

I can see it happening unfortunately. His approval ratings right now are not that disastrous. The economy is doing okay and unemployment is still very low. His base still adores him. Also historically speaking, presidents tend to get 2 terms.

[DC 25,164]

I'm personally an independent, and if I could, I would vote for Howard Schultz. He seems like he really understands the situation we're in and he'd help provide the best security and actually listen to us citizens and immigrants.

Also, I hope Donald Trump doesn't win in 2020. He might've done good to the economy, but if he keeps doing what he's doing now, we're not even gonna have a country to complain about 

[sarahb 17,216]

I even dreamt about this damn election last night (I'm not even American ) and I don't remember who won but just the thought that he could be re-elected felt awful 

[FATCAT 60,909]

19 minutes ago, NotMyFlop said:

The only reason I currently have Democrats with the edge is because of the Shutdown. That was a colossal failure on Trump's end. Folding to Pelosi even peeved his base. That's not something that will be forgotten.  

It hasn't really blown up yet either. Trump supporters know that wall hasn't been built. This change of slogan will split his base.

Source: Am Southerner, know southerners!

[gabeoz 7,915]

I'd say that at the moment his chances of winning are 60/40. No matter how large his disapproval is, incumbents are already very hard to beat. The GOP will stop at nothing to try to get Trump re-elected, even if it means sacrificing what's left of their party morals. The shutdown really hurt his approval across the board but this upcoming funding deal with either be a big hit or miss with his base. A big determining factor will be the final report of the Mueller investigation.