“Roma” will win the Oscars, ASIB only best original song

[freebit 6,069]

I think the current hurdle for ASIB is that it's a love story, nothing politically "important." However, (to my chagrin, but to its favor) it's kind of a plus that it's so male-centric, to the point that it has crossed over into the "male weepie" subgenre of romance movies. I've noticed lot of men are kind of into it. The fact that a lot of film critics are men and could relate to it also helped its critical appeal IMO. AMPAs is still predominately male.

13 hours ago, Mulholland said:

Roma's path to Oscar victory is more difficult than you'd think given the critical acclaim and Cuaron's involvement. 

For one thing, the Academy has been very resistant towards Netflix in general. Netflix is working overtime to blow past that by giving the film a bigger (by their standards) theatrical release before it hits the streaming service, but it's too early to tell whether that's enough to win over the Academy. (Additionally: I think it's only playing in 3 or 4 major cities in North America.) And from everything I have read from critics and experts on Oscar campaigns, Roma is a movie that needs to be seen in a theater to be appreciated fully. Even with the theatrical run, MOST people are still going to watch it on Netflix. 

That's problematic because it's a 3-hour, black-and-white movie in a foreign language with no movie stars in it. Will people actually watch it, or will they be on their phones the whole time? Will they turn it off after 30 minutes or an hour because apparently it's somewhat slow? There are even some critics who have said the film is kind of cold and emotionally distant even though they like it overall. That's a tough prospect. Add in the fact that Netflix doesn't release viewership info, so no one can default to box office numbers to support the idea that a lot of people saw/liked it. 

I can see it winning Best Director, but Best Picture? It could happen, but that's an uphill battle. 

IA Netflix will be a possible hurdle for them. A lot of them are from movie studios who see Netflix and other streaming platforms as a threat to their profits. 

I'm not saying ASIB will win, since I never believed it to be a true frontrunner for BP, but I don't think it's impossible either. 

[JohnWayne97 550]

I said NO !! 

[Zilla 13,343]

Sadly this will probably happen, they always fall in love with one film and sadly I feel like it'll be that one although I hope I'm wrong!

[James Gibson 3,347]

I can see ASIB getting Original Song, Actor, Sound Mixing and even Cinematography with some ease.

Picture, Actress and Supporting Actor may happen but it depends on the support going when the televised award start rolling. We don't know how muh the industry lvoes it (even thought it seems like a lot)

Roma is def getting foreign language, maybe a couple techinical awards (cinematography maybe), director seems like a good bet. But I don't see best picture> I think the frontrunner is yet to appear (tho it could be ASIB)

[Miracle 14,068]

3 hours ago, Kimmo said:

Ok I’m sorry to tell you guys but Roma has been getting so much acclaim, its already tied with ASIB at winning best picture, but here’s the thing, Alfonso Cuaron is a mastermind and on top of that he is loved by The Academy there’s no way critics will let this movie loose for best picture. Just look at the trailer, the cinematography is mesmerizing, the movie lacks a lot of music to let the elements take over 

“Roma has very little accompanying music. You only hear music when the characters hear or play music. This lack of background noise allows other sounds to establish the setting. The house has a dog and several bird cages. The dog barking, the birds chirping; it adds tremendous realism to the plot” -Julian Roman

The only two from runners now predicted to win best picture is ASIB and Roma since “BlacKkKlansman” and “First Man” are already falling on popular votes 

ASIB is winning the expert predictions by 13 votes and Roma is getting closer now with 11 votes on the expert 

Here’s who voted  ASIB : 

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Ed Douglas (Weekend Warrior),  Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Dave Karger (IMDb), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (USA Today), Chris Rosen(Radio.com), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Sasha Stone(Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).

Here’s who voted Roma :

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Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Alicia Malone (TCM), Andrea Mandell (USA Today),  Scott Mantz (Collider), Michael Musto(NewNowNext),  Claudia Puig (KPCC), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) and Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times).

At this point we can pretty much say that the only award we have on lock is Best Original song 

While you’re at it check out Gravity and Childern of Men two of many of his best works!! 

Best Actress is another possibility.

[Andy McQueen 4,484]

I think "Mary Poppins Returns" might be a strong competition in the song and music/soundtrack category as well tbh. (According to test screenings and previews, it's really good.)

[Melech 9,870]

4 hours ago, Mulholland said:

white movie in a foreign language

Cause foreign languages means bad movie, right ?  

[FentyGa 14,340]

Yeah, I feel like Roma winning would make more sense, but I still think Gaga has best actress in the bag
Certainly best song

[FentyGa 14,340]

14 minutes ago, Andy McQueen said:

I think "Mary Poppins Returns" might be a strong competition in the song and music/soundtrack category as well tbh. (According to test screenings and previews, it's really good.)

Of course my two faves (Lin and Gaga) have to be up for awards the same year

[Gypsy Life 118,907]

Thank you for the input Oscar expert.

[Andy McQueen 4,484]

Just now, FentyGa said:

Of course my two faves (Lin and Gaga) have to be up for awards the same year

They are my favorites too!  So I don't mind either winning tbh.
"Mary Poppins Returns" otherwise might not be nominated but people tend to forget the original "Mary Poppins" movie was nominated for 13 Academy Awards with winning 5 Oscars, so it's a possibility if the film is really good and I still hope "A Star Is Born" might earn enough categories as well. (Since ASIB is probably under drama and MPR under comedy/musical, they might have a change to both win, Lin and Gaga ...) 

 

[KleinGa 18,177]

Wait, is ROMA a Netflix film? If so, then would this be the first time a streaming movie won Best Picture? That would be HUGE 

[Poker 3,312]

So the movie deserves an Oscar because a dog barks and a bird chips? 

[Doncho 27,241]

26 minutes ago, Andy McQueen said:

I think "Mary Poppins Returns" might be a strong competition in the song and music/soundtrack category as well tbh. (According to test screenings and previews, it's really good.)

True. However ASIB has the advantage of being released earlier, wich means the songs and soundtrack are already very well known. It will be an interesting category. I think Shallow will prevail as the favorite to win though

[ShayCristoforo 10,223]

Realistically I don't think ASIB is deserving of Best Picture. But yes for Song, Acting, Directing.