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New Billboard changes could negatively impact Gaga in the US

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Klou

As some of you may know, Billboard changed their US Hot 100 rules in March of this year. For those that want more info from their site regarding the change, you can go here:

http://www.billboard...006453952.story

Now some of you may not be good at math or understand the logic completely, so I'll try my best to make it simple first and then explain in detail afterwards for those that want the nitty gritty. Basically, the Hot 100 now focuses more on Airplay and less on Digital Sales while also giving streaming more of an edge. This is bad for Gaga because it would mean she has to have even MORE digital sales in her first week to make a #1 debut. It's hard to accrue a good amount of AirPlay in the first week and streaming would be limited as well.

If I had to bet my money on whether Gaga will debut at #1 or not, I would bet my money in her favor, but not with absolute certainty like I would have before. I did some calculations on Judas as an example... If she were to debut Judas now with the same statistics, it would debut around #16. Because of the low AirPlay and low streaming, it would push it out of the top 10. Justin Bieber is also a good example with how he has been charting. He sold over 500K with Boyfriend, but still missed the #1 spot. Also, his other promo singles sold 150K+ in their debut week, but charted around #20, which is rather low considering they were all in the top 5 digital sales for the week.

If Gaga has lots of airplay this next era, then she should be fine, but if she doesn't, then she will be screwed. Her debut single needs to sell a massive amount of digital copies, have some airplay, AND streaming to hit the #1 spot. Again, I think she will do it, but it won't be by a landslide like it was before.

*This affects all artists, but will negatively impact those who don't have radio backing. It will, in turn, benefit those who seem to have consistent radio backing (Rihanna, Katy Perry, etc.). For Gaga's follow up singles, she will still need that radio support for them to do well.

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Now for those who want the exact calculations:

The Billboard Hot 100 takes Digital Sales and Radio Airplay into consideration (and a small amount of streaming). Before the change, these two parts were about 50/50 in factoring the Hot 100 position. Now, after the change, it's more like 44/56 with digital sales losing out. Also, digital streaming plays more of a factor.

The exact calculation for a Hot 100 position is as follows (provided by our own very loved Magoo!):

*points = 62% x sales/K + 80% x airplay (A.I. millions) + 5% x on demand streaming/K

This amount is then compared to other songs on the chart and ordered appropriately.

I calculated Judas as follows:

162(.62) + 14(.80) + 100(.05) = 117

The amount of 117 for Judas would place the song 16th on the chart.

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J e s s e

:ohno:

"They have as much in common as dinosaurs and goldfish: the cracker kind!" - Penelope Garcia

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Bamboo

This impacts everyone negatively though. :shrug: Rihanna doesn't really get overplayed, except for WFL, and her sales aren't always super high, except for WFL, but anything is possible. That might be why they might be focusing more on dance music with this album.

It might benefit Kety though :(

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E  r  o  s

I'm sure we'll all buy the single, but since radio counts more, and streaming now plays into it, then I'm guessing we'll have to request it more on radio, while also streaming it on the sites that they factor in. If most of the fans did that, would that not at least somewhat help to compensate for the lower factoring of digital sales?

EROSOFFICIAL.COM/MUSIC

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Robotboy

impact gaga negatively? its the same for all artists. and.. who cares?

Remember that you are unique. Like everyone else.

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Klou

This impacts everyone negatively though. :shrug: Rihanna doesn't really get overplayed, except for WFL, and her sales aren't always super high, except for WFL, but anything is possible. That might be why they might be focusing more on dance music with this album.

It might benefit Kety though :(

It does impact everyone, but it actually HELPED Where Have You Been reach #5 because it had massive airplay. If Gaga can get airplay on the levels Rihanna gets, then she should be fine, but Rihanna has always edged out Gaga in terms of radio (overall).

impact gaga negatively? its the same for all artists. and.. who cares?

As I said, it could negatively impact her if she doesn't have good airplay. The charts favor artists who have lots of airplay right now, so if she ends up getting good radio backing, then she will be fine.

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Kermit the frog

That's bad, but I really don't care anymore.

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Bamboo

It does impact everyone, but it actually HELPED Where Have You Been reach #5 because it had massive airplay. If Gaga can get airplay on the levels Rihanna gets, then she should be fine, but Rihanna has always edged out Gaga in terms of radio (overall).

As I said, it could negatively impact her if she doesn't have good airplay. The charts favor artists who have lots of airplay right now, so if she ends up getting good radio backing, then she will be fine.

I guess it really depends on the next era :shrug: and it will vary from song to song. It will also be negative for Rihanna too because when her singles flop they flop on radio HARD! and they never catch on afterwards.

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Americano

She could put it on VEVO as well though. (A lyric video) and try to service it to Rhapsody, etc. first week

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Klou

She could put it on VEVO as well though. (A lyric video) and try to service it to Rhapsody, etc. first week

Yes please :yes:

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_Lam

Really well explained thank you for this thread !

If Gaga focus on something more radio friendly, there shouldn't be any problem considering she is still on of the biggest radio queen (Poker Face, Bad Romance... even BTW). And it affects everyone.

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RAMROD

Gaga will be living on the Radio next era. Or at least that's what many hoping for. Beat that Bruno Mars' ass, Gaga! :pawsup:

(ノ◕ヮ◕)ノ✧*:・゚ ♥ The ♥ Clowns ♥ Have ♥ Made ♥ Me ♥ Dance ♥ And ♥ Go ♥ Crazy ♥

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iWontBeTonight

So does billboard now count vevo/youtube, pandora, iheartradio app, and all those?

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