ASIB's Oscar Chances Are Slim

[PunkTheFunk 121,513]

While everyone is melting down over Vegas-Gate, I thought I'd whip out Microsoft Excel and analyze ASIB's Oscar chances.

I compiled a list of films that won Best Original Song at the Oscars over a span of 40 years -- starting in 1976 with Barbra Streisand's version of "A Star Is Born" and ending in 2016 with "La La Land" -- and their American release months.

Here's what I found:

 51% of films that won Best Song were released in November or December. These are prime months for releasing Oscar bait + the voting members of the Academy are more likely to remember songs from films released closer to the Oscar ceremony. Even the 1976 version of ASIB was released in December.

 The spike of winners in June = Disney movies. Toy Story 3, Tarzan, Pocahontas, and The Lion King were all released in June. 

 10% of films that won Best Song were released in May.

 If you only look at the past 25 years, only ONE film that has won Best Song was released in May. This film was An Inconvenient Truth, a documentary about climate change.

 Since 2011, all Best Song winners have been released in either November or December. 

The verdict:

The change of ASIB's release date killed its Oscar chances. Merry Christmas everyone!

[MonSwiftAnton 3,652]

But if the oscars chances are slim, we still have the razzies. (Not because she's going to be that bad but because she's Gaga.)

[ryanripley 86,575]

i never expected it to impact the oscars at all, so i'm good!

i'm just very excited to see her act again and get to fairly judge it rather than judge on a character that basically emobies TFM/BTWga

[MarcusBones 3,343]

3 minutes ago, PunkTheFunk said:

While everyone is melting down over Vegas-Gate, I thought I'd whip out Microsoft Excel and analyze ASIB's Oscar chances.

I compiled a list of films that won Best Original Song at the Oscars over a span of 40 years -- starting in 1976 with Barbra Streisand's version of "A Star Is Born" and ending in 2016 with "La La Land" -- and their American release months.

Here's what I found:

 51% of films that won Best Song were released in November or December. These are prime months for releasing Oscar bait + the voting members of the Academy are more likely to remember songs from films released closer to the Oscar ceremony. Even the 1976 version of ASIB was released in December.

 The spike of winners in June = Disney movies. Toy Story 3, Tarzan, Pocahontas, and The Lion King were all released in June. 

 10% of films that won Best Song were released in May.

 If you only look at the past 25 years, only ONE film that has won Best Song was released in May. This film was An Inconvenient Truth, a documentary about climate change.

 Since 2011, all Best Song winners have been released in either November or December. 

The verdict:

The change of ASIB's release date killed its Oscar chances. Merry Christmas everyone!

Sis, you're my favorite 

 

but how muhfuggin long did it take to compile all of this!? lmao

 

and don't be too negative! The Academy seems to love Gaga and Bradley, also seeing how it's his directorial debut and her first major film role, I think it will stay on their minds

[PunkTheFunk 121,513]

Just now, MarcusBones said:

but how muhfuggin long did it take to compile all of this!? lmao

Not long surprisingly! Just navigated to the Best Song Winners page on Wikipedia and opened each film in a new tab.

[pedrohemg 7,802]

When they moved it to May they already had in mind they wouldn't send it to the Academy, I think.

[MarcusBones 3,343]

6 minutes ago, pedrohemg said:

When they moved it to May they already had in mind they wouldn't send it to the Academy, I think.

I'm sure they will send it to the Academy...

 

Gaga is all about her accolades, you can tell she honors them and she wants that EGOT in her career.

 

She lives for the applurze.

[Matangi 3,050]

this is all massively speculative though... I don't think it will have Oscar chances because it will not be an outstanding film, however

[TheRoof 21,600]

24 minutes ago, PunkTheFunk said:

Not long surprisingly! Just navigated to the Best Song Winners page on Wikipedia and opened each film in a new tab.

FBI could never

[gag 22,449]

But its previous scheduled date was September 28, 2018, a month where only 1 award was given, its chances were even worse in October at 0.

Which means by moving it from September to May, statistically, they've improved their chances of an Oscar.

[Damon 10,896]

I really don't care but thanks

[Edonis 25,996]

You need to do a linear regression or correlation analysis to be sure this is statistically significant sis 

But I low key wouldn’t be that surprised, hence the change of date to a summer release as opposed to fall/winter 

[little legend 0]

who cares about Oscars, WW success,sales, critical acclaim?

our fave was unofficial an indie artist since 2016 and an official certified indie artist since yesterday

our Vegas Queen 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ToxicHot 6,425]

12 minutes ago, Edonis said:

You need to do a linear regression or correlation analysis to be sure this is statistically significant sis 

But I low key wouldn’t be that surprised, hence the change of date to a summer release as opposed to fall/winter 

Totally random, but I HATE how I know exactly what you're talking about since I just took a course this past semester called "Quantitative Research Methods". And I agree, this tea is not statistically significant. 

 

[JR Gg 12,985]

The release date doesn't hurt her chances at 'Best Song' at all tho 

Take a look at the winners and y'all would realise that the songs are normally written by renowned songwriters or sung by renowned singers. 

Gaga WILL at least be nominated