PunkTheFunk 124,425 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Mirror, mirror, over here Which pop girl will flop this year? I've discovered a way to predict whether or not a pop girl's next album will flop using my crystal Koons ball Google Trends. PunkTheFunk's Theorem (aka The Law of Flop) states: "If, after an album cycle is complete, a pop girl is less popular on Google than she was before she released that album, her next album will most likely flop." This is not exactly rocket science. As a pop star, your goal upon releasing your album is to increase -- or at the very least, maintain -- your level of popularity. Basically, you want to be in a better shape at the end of the album cycle than you were at the beginning. If you find that your star has risen even further after your album cycle is complete, people will be more likely to buy your next album. And if you find instead that your level of popularity has decreased to a new low, well, you're more likely to flop the next time around I analyzed the Google search popularity of a couple of "pop" girls (pop meaning mainstream, not necessarily the genre) and tried to see if my method could "predict" some of their past successes and flops. Some things to keep in mind: - Google ranks search interest on a scale of 0 to 100, 0 being "I don't know her" and 100 being "Queen of the Internet". The scores of all pop girls have been normalized based on Gaga's popularity. - I define these terms as follows: Album Cycle (AC): The time between the release of the first single and the release of the last or fifth single, whichever is first. Let's be honest, anything past the fifth single is stale ) Inter-Album Period (IAP): The time between two album cycles. - I'm only counting solo studio albums. No compilations/greatest hits/remixes. I take the average search interest during the inter-album periods and compare them based on percentages. If the percentage is negative, the next album will probably flop by that pop girl's standards. e.g. IAP between albums 1 and 2: average search interest is 45. IAP between albums 2 and 3: average search interest is 32. That's a decrease of 29%, so album 4 will flop. ... Gaga: IAP between TF and TFM (July 2009 to Oct 2009): 50 IAP between TFM and BTW (July 2010 to Feb 2011): 54 <-- 8% increase. BTW will be a success. IAP between BTW and ARTPOP (Nov 2011 to Aug 2013): 20 <-- 63% drop. ARTPOP will flop IAP between ARTPOP and Joanne (March 2014 to Sep 2016): 10 <-- 50% drop. Joanne will flop Adele: IAP between 19 and 21 (Oct 2008 to Nov 2010): 3 IAP between 21 and 25 (Nov 2011 to Oct 2015): 18 <-- 500% increase. 25 WILL SMASH Katy Perry: IAP between One of the Boys and Teenage Dream (April 2009 to May 2010): 10 IAP between Teenage Dream: The Complete Confection and Prism (May 2012 to August 2013): 16 <--60% increase. Prism will smash. IAP between Prism and Witness (Aug 2014 to Feb 2017): 13 <-- 19% drop. Witness will flop. The math has spoken hennies. Christina Aguilera (post 2004 since Google doesn't go back that far) IAP between Stripped and Back to Basics (the earliest date available - Jan 2004, a few months after the last Stripped single to June 2006): 11 IAP between Back to Basics and Bionic (Nov 2007 to April 2010): 5 <-- 55% drop. Bionic will flop. (I tried predicting Lotus and it predicted a bigger success than Bionic; her spikes in popularity from Burlesque and The Voice probably skewed the data. Then again, if Xtina had done some decent promo for Lotus, maybe it would've had the potential to do better than Bionic? ) Taylor Swift (starting from Speak Now because I'm too lazy to go back that far ): IAP between Speak Now and Red (Jul 2011 to Aug 2012): 17 IAP between Red and 1989 (Jun 2013 to Aug 2014): 19 <-- 12%. 1989 will smash. IAP between 1989 and TS6 (Aug 2015 to if she released her lead single this month, Jun 2017): 20 <--5%. TS6 will be a success if released today, but it's not a very comfortable margin. If she waits too long she could flop. ... My textbook "Introduction to Matheflopical Analysis: A Mess, A Kii, A Differential Equation" comes out this summer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
donutellha 13,819 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 suddenly I enjoy statistics in math class Spoiler seriously tho THE DEDICATION Walk down the runway but don't puke, it's okay. You just had 10 donuts today. Without frosting. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasi 10,923 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 I read the title as "I can forecast polyps". I don't understand pineapples, so I don't eat bananas. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy scheisse 22,254 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Damn I would love to see Taylor flop cause her ego inflated with 1989 lol But anyway v interesting. Also that Gaga peak is massive ahhh those were the days Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
msisux 2,261 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 These google analysis threads are so intense I also think there's a chance of Taylor flopping just because of how much overexposure she had during the 1989 era. When is your book available for preorder? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunkTheFunk 124,425 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Colleen said: When is your book available for preorder? #Soon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAMROD 109,347 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Forecast new Lana album then?!! (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ✧*:･ﾟ 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥𝘢 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥𝘢, 𝘥𝘪𝘥𝘯'𝘵 (*´艸｀*) ♡♡♡ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edonis 28,950 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Little Joannesters are going to CUM for you with that forecast sis But this is all so very interesting. It almost felt like an academic journal slay a bit, king of quality threads Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
migamiga 12,101 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Curious what Rihanna's numbers look like. She just keeps getting more and more relevant. Also beys numbers before and after 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werk 13,166 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Britney please Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunkTheFunk 124,425 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, RAMROD said: Forecast new Lana album then?!! She's not exactly a mainstream act (i.e. people are not Googling that much) so I don't think it'll work tbh, but I'll give it a shot Ultraviolence to Honeymoon (Dec 2014 to Aug 2015): 6 Honeymoon to Lust for Life (Sep 2015 to Feb 2017): 4 <-- Flop? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAMROD 109,347 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Just now, PunkTheFunk said: She's not exactly a mainstream act (i.e. people are not Googling that much) so I don't think it'll work tbh, but I'll give it a shot Ultraviolence to Honeymoon (Dec 2014 to Aug 2015): 6 Honeymoon to Lust for Life (Sep 2015 to Feb 2017): 4 <-- Flop? That's terrible (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ✧*:･ﾟ 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥𝘢 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥𝘢, 𝘥𝘪𝘥𝘯'𝘵 (*´艸｀*) ♡♡♡ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altair 2,000 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 okay but gaga did joanne to herself Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJK273 2,700 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 "This is Karen Smith. It is currently 68 degrees and there's a 99.9% chance Witness is already a flop." Messy, Petty, Beautiful, Covergirl Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyanLights 15,576 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 You should do other artists, like Rihanna and Beyoncé Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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