The Cure predicted to sell 74k by Kworb

[Gardevoir 9,632]

Just now, leecy said:

just like Lemonade

 

and what about that?  

[JohnWayne23 5,227]

I have a feeling this number will be increased today, when they do their lil update

[donutellha 13,819]

9 hours ago, Skrill said:

WHERE CAN I GET THAT PHOTO?!

I have no idea it's from @Phoenix's status i think

It's from the coachella interlude 

[pdaines 209]

8 hours ago, JohnWayne23 said:

I have a feeling this number will be increased today, when they do their lil update

 

1) Kworb probably won't give us another update until at least tomorrow, or maybe the next day when it can be final. 

2) Based on my earlier calculations, Kworb's projection was based on a pure best guess continuation of the extant sales curve (which to that point had been essentially flat with no drop-off). Since there has been some drop-off since then, in order for the prior estimate to be low, the song would actually have to increase in sales between now and the end of the week -- and it is almost certain to follow the opposite trend. 

Don't get me wrong -- holding at #1 on iTunes for three days after release is genuinely impressive and potentially signals a hit. But to the extent that the total sales projection seems low, it is more a symbol of just how far and how quickly sales have been falling than anything else. Streaming is increasingly the driving force of the industry (and unfortunately it isn't Gaga's strong suit at the time being)... 

Overall, I'm sticking to my last projection yesterday of around 67K sales by the end of the week.

Confidence interval: I think it is unlikely that the song will have sold fewer than 62K or more than 71K by the end of the day tomorrow. There is more downward potential because of the very real possibility that the song could accelerate substantially in its decline by tomorrow (as songs tend to do soon after their initial peaks, particularly when not yet driven by strong radio airplay growth).