MR Is Being Set Up to Be Gaga's Bigger Hit

[JohnWayne23 5,227]

Why you ask? It all has to do with a sort of loophole in the Billboard Hot.

Once a song is below #50 and has charted for more than 20 weeks, it gets knocked off the chart and can't come back. 

 

Well the way MR has charted it's going to benefit a lot from that rule, because while a good portion of her hits have been knocked out between 19 weeks and 24 weeks, MR will chart past that.

 

This week MR will have spent 16 weeks on the Hot 100, spending its first 11 weeks in the bottom half of the Hot 100 (racking up points for the song). Since its 12th week, the song has picked up and has charted in the top 30 of the Hot 100. The song will continue to do so (aside from this ed sheeran week, but she'll still receive more points than she did last week for the song, so chart placement doesn't matter), because radio is adding it at a rate that it BEYOND exceptional. This means that its almost a given that the song will be on the chart longer than 20 weeks and most likely much more. Had MR started only charting 4 weeks ago, its charting time would've been a lot less. So there's 11 weeks in the bottom half of the hot 100 really helped the songs performance. 

 

An example:

The Edge of Glory started charting in the top 10 the week it came out. In its 13th week it fell out of the top 10, sliding down the chart and after its 24th week it was knocked out because it would have charted lower than the #50 spot. Had the song started at a lower position and then climbed into the Top 10 spot, The Edge of Glory would have been a bigger hit (mostly likely bigger than Applause *because Applause it Gaga's #5 hit in the US and TEOG is her #6*) because it would have racked up more weeks and more points. 

 

The Edge of Glory (2011) *11 weeks in Top 10*
1st Week: #3 - PEAK POSITION
2nd Week: #19
3rd Week: #8
4th Week: #7
5th Week: #6
6th Week: #6
7th Week: #6
8th Week: #6
9th Week: #6
10th Week: #7
11th Week: #8
12th Week: #10
13th Week: #12
14th Week: #14
15th Week: #16
16th Week: #21
17th Week: #25
18th Week: #29
19th Week: #34
20th Week: #31
21st Week: #37
22nd Week: #40
23rd Week: #44
24th Week: #50
(knocked out)

 

So this is what MR looks like now:

Million Reasons (2016/2017) *1 week in Top 10 (so far)*
1st Week: #76
2nd Week: #57 
3rd Week: #57 
4th Week: #96
5th Week: #52 
6th Week: #62
7th Week: #70 
8th Week: #83 
9th Week: #86
10th Week: #96 
11th Week: #97 
12th Week: #4 - PEAK POSITION
13th Week: #18 
14th Week: #30 
15th Week: #30 (still charting)

 

 

My chart freak opinion is that MR will continue to climb (I believe to anywhere at the #13 spot and higher), racking up more and more weeks on the chart. It will eventually decline and by the time it declines the song will have spent at least 30 weeks on the chart. Longer than 13 of her singles. 

 

Honestly, this could turn out to be a bigger hit an "Applause", making it Gaga's 5th biggest hit. And that's my honest, informed prediction

Her Top 10 hits in the US would be:

1. Just Dance
2. Poker Face
3. Bad Romance
4. Born This Way
5. Million Reasons
6. Applause
7. The Edge of Glory
8. Paparazzi
9. Telephone
10. LoveGame

 

 

 

[JupiterDrive 2,788]

maybe on mars

[Decodekid 28,263]

i have a feeling it might go #15 

BUT YALL NEED TO STREEAM 

[PerfectIllusion 6,616]

5 minutes ago, JohnWayne23 said:

 

Honestly, this could turn out to be a bigger hit an "Applause", making it Gaga's 5th biggest hit. And that's my honest, informed prediction

 

 

 

This is a lil bit over the top  

Nevertheless, MR is doing really well for a ballad

[Red 97,985]

... this is tragic 

[Radio Ga Ga 5,671]

I really hope it does, but that means radio has to keep rising and sales have to be stable

She should donate half a million dollars to Spotify so she can get higher streams tbh

[ElectricAlley 1,737]

Little strange to see MR doing so well. When I first listened, I didn't really see it as anything other than a album track ballad. But I'm pleased to see it succeed. (Although many other songs on Joanne we're more deserving IMO)

[Guest]

You can't compare raw-download-impact eras with streaming era of nowadays

[The Fame Joanne 5,985]

3 minutes ago, vivre sa vie said:

You can't raw-download-impact eras with streaming era of nowadays

Streaming is included in the charts. So it can be compared 

OT: No way it will do better than Applause. MR had one week in the top 10, Applause was there forever

[Guest]

Just now, The Fame Joanne said:

Streaming is included in the charts. So it can be compared 

yes but nowadays the streaming is the thing for charting. MR was number one on iTunes before SB and it didn't even enter top 50 on the hot 100

[dit 46,473]

It will for sure be one of her hits with the most longevity ever. I completely agree with you and anyone who is a chart enthusiast and knows what they are talking about will agree with you too.

BTW I LOVE how you explained all of this in the OP in a way that is simple and easy to understand for everyone. Very good thread.

 

[The Fame Joanne 5,985]

2 minutes ago, vivre sa vie said:

yes but nowadays the streaming is the thing for charting. MR was number one on iTunes before SB and it didn't even enter top 50 on the hot 100

Yes bc it lacked streaming and wasn't that popular with the GP. Bc the charts are calculated differently today, we can conpare todays charts, with the charts of the sales-era

[Killa 17,478]

That would be kinda funny tbfh

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

Okay I'm lost. Am I the only one who didn't understand what is actually being said here? 

[Bio 23,538]

The songs is free-falling on iTunes and has no streaming support tho. It's hanging in there because of the radio and I don't see how that could go for much longer. I think the song will peak at 90m AI overall.