Gaga needs a music video to debut in the Top 10

[Arizona Sky 10,913]

Lets have a chart lesson, she'll we?! To secure a Top 10 debut on Billboard Hot 100, she'll need to release the video on the same day as Perfect Illusion's release. Here's why:

Lets take a look at the rough Billboard Hot 100 formula - Sales / 1,000 + Streams / 120,000 + Audience impressions / 1,005,000

Lets say PI doesn't have a music video out on the same day, here's my rough estimates: 135k sales / 6m streams / 40m AI 

She'll receive roughly 223 points which will place her at at #12 debut if she released this week.

Now lets say she releases the video, my rough estimates are: 135k sales / 10m streams / 40m AI

She'll receive roughly 256 points which will place her at a #7 debut if she released this week.

Before you drag me with my stat estimates, I would like to say I am very educated in this field and pay close attention to the charts. Take the positions with a grain of salt though, as competition changes from week to week. I am using this weeks chart as my reference point. For sales, 135k downloads seems reasonable for a Lady Gaga lead single in 2016. Some of you may not know that sales have been rapidly declining ever since late 2014. To put things into perspective, 'Work' is a 9 week #1 hit yet it has only sold 1.7 million copies in the USA. Applause debuted with 218k in 2013. In 2016, that would be around 110k. Streaming is more important than you think it is, and it will take a while to ease into, especially for someone like Gaga who has weak streaming stats and hasn't released an album in the streaming era. Streams counted towards the Billboard Hot 100 chart combine YouTube views as well as on-demand streaming services such as Spotify, Apple Music, Tidal, etc. However, all the streams come from the USA only. YouTube is very global. For example, only 14% of Calvin's views come from the USA. For Gaga, I'd say 25% seems about right. On-Demand streaming services are also very global. On Airplay, I gave her the benefit of the doubt and assumed that she would have a good radio deal, but if she didn't, she would be lucky to pass 30m AI. My point is that the music industry is ever changing and it is not as easy to get to #1 as it was back in 2011. Streaming will be crucial in determining how this era plays out success wise. I'm not trying to act chart obsessed or anything like that, because I'm really not, I just enjoy playing around with things like this and I thought it would be interesting to share.

[GagaSkeletonWay 2,080]

 

[alaska5000 752]

Who cares where she debuts, as long as it takes off eventually.

[REALITY 77,917]

#Musicnotthebling

[Luke78619 23,467]

I agree, music video is needed, good job on these stats

[FlopSlurper 34,336]

How many children should she sacrifice to get a #1 debut? 

[Seeka 12,372]

God, I saw charts and reported you so this could be moved.

[Arizona Sky 10,913]

Guys, keep the negative comments to yourself. Reply if you have something to say that relates to this topic 

[Jinzo 9,639]

I agree I'm actually worried.. But imagine she releases the video the same week next week it'll plummet hard if people don't stream it

[Noah 26,994]

I think the Audio or Lyric Video she'd upload will get at least 8M Views. Britney reached 4.5M with almost no promotion and since Gaga is more in GP's minds than Britney, I think 8M would be possible.

If the Music Video is good she could even pass 12-15M in the first Week. With Applause we were at 11.5M so she'd be able to do the same again.

Gaga obviously has a Radio Deal with iHeart Radio, which means her Audience will be huge. 

I am quite confident and say - do not go for a MV in the debut Week. There are Songs that leave the Top 10 on iTunes within the first Week, and I don't want Gaga to have a Top 10 debut and then be out of the Hot 100 after 4 Weeks. I'd rather have longevity. 

[Klou 2,414]

Nice analysis.

The negative posts are completely unnecessary. The OP is just stating something that is mostly fact. Just take it as it is or leave.

[OBEY 57,109]

you're right, but she probably won't cause that's what would be the good thing to do

[Daydream 541]

I'm on the fence with the music video being released the same day/week as the single. I reckon that releasing a music video shortly after the single's release will help with the charts, but I am apprehensive that it will subsequently cut the single's longevity. For instance, it's better for the song to debut low and reach higher once a music video is released than to release the single with a music video only for it to maintain its chart position or go lower. However, like you said, streaming, sales, and airplay are also a predominant factor so we just need to have faith in the song. 

[weed 75,076]

7 minutes ago, Noah said:

I think the Audio or Lyric Video she'd upload will get at least 8M Views. Britney reached 4.5M with almost no promotion and since Gaga is more in GP's minds than Britney, I think 8M would be possible.

If the Music Video is good she could even pass 12-15M in the first Week. With Applause we were at 11.5M so she'd be able to do the same again.

Gaga obviously has a Radio Deal with iHeart Radio, which means her Audience will be huge. 

I am quite confident and say - do not go for a MV in the debut Week. There are Songs that leave the Top 10 on iTunes within the first Week, and I don't want Gaga to have a Top 10 debut and then be out of the Hot 100 after 4 Weeks. I'd rather have longevity. 

preach it sister!!! Spotify + YouTube (audio+lyric video) + Apple Music, it's at least 20M streams altogether in my book. 'closer' by chainsmokers lyric video has 74M views on youtube after 3 weeks.... 'cold water' has almost 120M after a month... I think Gaga can get good numbers.

[Ares 808]

I'm sure the numbers for her will be good regardless of a video or not if the Single is as much of a smash hit as the team at iHeartRadio seems to think it'll be.

Quick question, how did adele do so well with her album? I know it was obviously a smash hit but I'm curious as to how it became such a hit.. Please lmn if any of you guys know!