Trump almost tied with Clinton, loses big to Bernie

[brendablethyn 536]

Donald Trump has nearly pulled even with Hillary Clinton, according to the results of the NBC News/SurveyMonkey weekly tracking poll released Tuesday.

While Clinton is looking to wrap up the Democratic nomination with a strong performance in the final group of states on June 7, her advantage in a hypothetical matchup against the Republican nominee has dwindled by the week. Over the last seven days, Clinton led Trump 47 percent to 45 percent, with the Manhattan businessman drawing 2 points closer since the last weekly survey.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders maintained a 12-point lead over Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head general election contest, 52 percent to 40 percent.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-trump-hillary-clinton-223713

[DiscoHeaven23 35,007]

"A survey monkey poll"

 

I used those to do projects in high school.

[brendablethyn 536]

8 minutes ago, DiscoHeaven23 said:

"A survey monkey poll"

I used those to do projects in high school.

It's a professional and respected poll done in association with NBC, it's not some school project.

[LebaneseDude 6,146]

I keep seeing these results and wondering why they don't translate to the voting booth.

Probably because they're national polls and are about as relevant to the election as Gaga is to Gothic rock.

 

[Luc 4,776]

15 minutes ago, LebaneseDude said:

I keep seeing these results and wondering why they don't translate to the voting booth.

Probably because they're national polls and are about as relevant to the election as Gaga is to Gothic rock.

 

Because a lot of Sanders voters would never vote Hillary, while almost all Hillary voters would vote Sanders in a Sanders vs. Trump election.

Completely made up numbers, but to give an indication of the reason why Sanders does better against Trump:

50% of Sanders supporters (let's say 20% of the country) wouldn't vote Hillary in a Hillary vs. Trump election. Let's say about 10% of these would go to Trump

10% of Hillary supporters (let's say 30% of the country) would not vote for Sanders in a Sanders vs. Trump election.

So in the end, Sanders would be a better choice for presidential nominee, because most Hillary voters would vote for Sanders in a Sanders vs. Trump election, while most Sanders voters wouldn't vote for Hillary in a Hillary vs. Trump election right now.

 

Of course, this is right now. As soon as Sanders has officially lost, the Hillary camp will gain some extra support. Can't say that the Sanders supporters who hate Hillary now, would really abstain or vote Green or vote Trump in 6 months from now.

[LebaneseDude 6,146]

8 minutes ago, Luc said:

Because a lot of Sanders voters would never vote Hillary, while almost all Hillary voters would vote Sanders in a Sanders vs. Trump election.

Completely made up numbers, but to give an indication of the reason why Sanders does better against Trump:

50% of Sanders supporters (let's say 20% of the country) wouldn't vote Hillary in a Hillary vs. Trump election. Let's say about 10% of these would go to Trump

10% of Hillary supporters (let's say 30% of the country) would not vote for Sanders in a Sanders vs. Trump election.

So in the end, Sanders would be a better choice for presidential nominee, because most Hillary voters would vote for Sanders in a Sanders vs. Trump election, while most Sanders voters wouldn't vote for Hillary in a Hillary vs. Trump election right now.

 

Of course, this is right now. As soon as Sanders has officially lost, the Hillary camp will gain some extra support. Can't say that the Sanders supporters who hate Hillary now, would really abstain or vote Green or vote Trump in 6 months from now.

Meh most Sanders supporters will vote Clinton over Trump when it comes to the election. Most of it now is just grandstanding.

Before the Democratic convention is over though, any national polling is beyond useless especially since people are likely to sway the numbers to make their team look like the advantage. I wouldn't be shocked if Bernie supporters said they'd vote for Trump over Clinton to make her look bad.

For the independents that prefer Sanders, many of them do not even know him. The GOP will make sure to brand Sanders as an anti-American socialist by the time they're through. God knows there's plenty of source material untouched because Hillary has avoided going negative on Sanders to keep his supporters on her good side.

Then there's the Independents and even Republicans who would claim to vote for Sanders over Trump when they'll end up just voting for Trump. They'll do what they can to fracture the competition, and they've succeeded alright.

The national polling is even more useless because the USA has the electoral college system, so aggregate polls are pointless.

Only need to look at swing states and Clinton does marvelously in all of them, better than Sanders in many, one example being Florida...the only state Clinton needs to win to win the election.