Japan's Dying Economy Gives Us Glimpse Of Whats Coming

[Economy 52,854]

12 minutes ago, Lord Temptation said:

The economy has been dormant since the 1990s. 1989 was the last boom year for Japan. Ironically, it was also the birth year of the web. And since then, Japan's leadership in applied sciences, particularly electronics, has faltered. Samsung (Korea) and Apple (California) now dominate. Japanese are obsessed with status. Instead of substance. Yes they need more immigration. But the older generation will rather die trying to prevent their idealized racial monocultural society from falling apart. 

Yes i know. It was after their real estate burst of the late 1980s which triggered the beggining if the downward spiral that never ended. Shame cuz they were once leaders in innovation

 

Now they are only known to hoard cash and not invest it or spend it which tends to happen after prolonged periods of deflation. If you start to see money as something that gains value over time, you see no reason to invest it in stocks etc and take risks. As a result little money is put into productive investments. People just let it sit in bank accounts

 

its not just hurting peoples spending habits. Its resulting in poor capital allocation which is hurting entrepreneurship, productivity gains and innovative ideas

 

The Government tries to spend more and prints money. They been doing that for many years and clearly its not working

 

they need to get to root of issue. Acceot more immigrants, invest in their younger generation more heavily, and make reforms in things like raising retirement age to keep people productive linger and lower pension costs (a must for them)

 

 

[Economy 52,854]

7 hours ago, Shipper said:

How about follow America's lead and let immigrants in? That is one sure way of getting the population up. I know a couple of people, Japanese culture enthusiasts aka anime otakus that would love to emigrate to Japan. US has been allowing immigrants in for this purpose but then again the concerns for safety and all these  "immigrants are stealing jobs, raping women, terrorizing the innocent, stealing your dogs whatevers" etc will come about. They might need to go about it? For a country that is very ethnocentric, that would be really difficult. They side eye foreigners like invaders in some parts.

(If you think US is racist, you've never been in ASIA. You probably just don't understand them but they are racist AF. That's why they don't get called out. This is based on my experience though.)

My Country Canada accepts many too. In proportion we accept more than the US actually and Toronto ranks #1 most diverse Country in world

 

North America is indeed doing better than most of developed world but our demographics are still deteriorating because immigrants help but that alone cant completely offeset todays low birth rates and aging population

 

Also the drop in birth rates is Global. One day everyone will want immigrants and will be hard to compete for enough even in wealthy Nations

 

We need to raise retirement age to keep people productive longer and continue technological advancements for higher productivity output per worker to help compensate for shrinking labor force!!!

[Shipper 13,114]

Just now, Economy said:

My Country Canada accepts many too. In proportion we accept more than the US actually and Toronto ranks #1 most diverse Nation in world

 

North America is indeed doing better than most of developed world but our demographics are still deteriorating because immigrants help but that alone cant completely offeset todays low birth rates and aging population

 

Also the drop in birth rates is Global. One day everyone will want immigrants and will be hard to compete for enough even in wealthy Nations

 

We need to raise retirement age to keep people productive longer and continue technological advancements for higher productivity output per worker to help compensate for shrinking labor force!!!

I agree that we need to raise retirement age but I am sure when we retire we will be complaining why we agreed for the retirement age to go up. Wait, how old do your geriatrics in Canada have to retire? Here in the US, 65 is the earliest they can get full benefits but some people still have to wait up to 67. When I'm 65, statistically, Social Security benefits here will be long bankrupt if they do not do anything to change it. I think they should charge those in higher income brackets *cough* the 1% MORE or remove the cap even if they do not need their SS benefits they are freaking billionaires anyways.

I am sure immigrants will not be in short supply. Lots of people from China are willing to emigrate or pay money to have an extra child. I'm an immigrant and a lot of people from where I am from will murder just to move into the US, Canada or even Japan. The problem is how these countries will try to educate and integrate immigrants in the country. Education is one avenue for that but will be difficult if there are language barriers. For Japan, I can tell you it will be difficult as many older people are very traditional. Language is also difficult to learn and they have a rigorous process to pass the Japanese literacy test. My friend is taking it and it is sounds so difficult. I think it is so much easier for english speaking countries since English is more widely spread.

You are in Canada so you guys have universal healthcare we here in the US don't. We are all required by law to pay for health care now though. But basically the younger population, us, are the ones who are paying for the healthcare needs of the older population. I am afraid statistically, we are only experiencing the first part of the baby boomer generation and will not be leveled up until 2050. Hard years will come in the future. Winter is coming!

[Economy 52,854]

11 hours ago, Shipper said:

I agree that we need to raise retirement age but I am sure when we retire we will be complaining why we agreed for the retirement age to go up. Wait, how old do your geriatrics in Canada have to retire? Here in the US, 65 is the earliest they can get full benefits but some people still have to wait up to 67. When I'm 65, statistically, Social Security benefits here will be long bankrupt if they do not do anything to change it. I think they should charge those in higher income brackets *cough* the 1% MORE or remove the cap even if they do not need their SS benefits they are freaking billionaires anyways.

I am sure immigrants will not be in short supply. Lots of people from China are willing to emigrate or pay money to have an extra child. I'm an immigrant and a lot of people from where I am from will murder just to move into the US, Canada or even Japan. The problem is how these countries will try to educate and integrate immigrants in the country. Education is one avenue for that but will be difficult if there are language barriers. For Japan, I can tell you it will be difficult as many older people are very traditional. Language is also difficult to learn and they have a rigorous process to pass the Japanese literacy test. My friend is taking it and it is sounds so difficult. I think it is so much easier for english speaking countries since English is more widely spread.

You are in Canada so you guys have universal healthcare we here in the US don't. We are all required by law to pay for health care now though. But basically the younger population, us, are the ones who are paying for the healthcare needs of the older population. I am afraid statistically, we are only experiencing the first part of the baby boomer generation and will not be leveled up until 2050. Hard years will come in the future. Winter is coming!

Here in Canada retirement age is also 65 but they are raising "Old Age" security to 67 starting in 2024. Old age security is a $500/month bonus everyone gets regardless of how much they worked or didnt. Its suppostu be a supplement to retirement, but raising old age security to 67 may force some people to work until 67 because many wont survive on mandatory CPP pension alone if they made no RSP accounts.

 

Also China has the worlds fastest growing middle class, at some point in a few decades not many will want to leave

 

my point is Globally population will hit decline and everyone will want immigrants and they will be in short supply. We may be forced to accept more uneducated immigrants purely for population

[Shipper 13,114]

1 hour ago, Economy said:

Here in Canada retirement age is also 65 but they are raising "Old Age" security to 67 starting in 2024. Old age security is a $500/month bonus everyone gets regardless of how much they worked or didnt. Its suppostu be a supplement to retirement, but raising old age security to 67 may force some people to work until 67 because many wont survive on mandatory CPP pension alone if they made no RSP accounts.

 

Also China has the worlds fastest growing middle class, at some point in a few decades not many will want to leave

 

my point is Globally population will hit decline and everyone will want immigrants and they will be in short supply. We may be forced to accept more uneducated immigrants purely for population

One thing is for sure the health care industry will increase. We need more people to take care for the older generation. It is a good thing that there are entry-level health care jobs like CNA etc that will somehow solve demand.

I think the more middle class China has means they can afford more children and might want have more? I don't know but I think you are right because the more economically sound people become they tend to want less children based on data you have given from first world countries and declining birth rates. Then again, they may want more children because it is culturally seen as signs of prosperity etc?

You posts are always interesting and true to your name because it is about the economy.

[SissyFromSpace 20,884]

Interesting read.

[Economy 52,854]

1 hour ago, Shipper said:

One thing is for sure the health care industry will increase. We need more people to take care for the older generation. It is a good thing that there are entry-level health care jobs like CNA etc that will somehow solve demand.

I think the more middle class China has means they can afford more children and might want have more? I don't know but I think you are right because the more economically sound people become they tend to want less children based on data you have given from first world countries and declining birth rates. Then again, they may want more children because it is culturally seen as signs of prosperity etc?

You posts are always interesting and true to your name because it is about the economy.

In China they now allow 2 children not just one...

 

but yes, development tends to lead to lower birth rates. People focus on careers and have children later and fewer of them. I think part of it becomes cultural

 

in Africa where many people live rurally and work to feed themselves but dont have careers, they have more children. Africa has the highest birth rate in the world and they also happen to be the least developed

 

birth control is also becoming more and more used in developing Countries. Even Countries like Mexico or India are seeing birth rates drop

 

you could argue global population peaking at 9 billion in 2050 (according to estimates) is good for environment. Growth forever isnt sustainable for out planet, but it will be an economic disaster if we dont make major reforms cause our economy simply isnt designed to shrink.

 

Global population growth is down to 1% annually. Thats the slowest rate in a long time

 

TV sci fi movies showing earth super over-populated in future is just that, FICTION! Because in reality everything points that within our life times (we will be old by then) global population will in fact prak then enter terminal decline

[CallMe 577]

Switzerland doesn't take in a lot of migrants. We're doing quite fine though. Someone explains that to me pls ? (Not saying it's fine, it drives me mad, but i'm just wondering if the "all the countries will want migrants" is fully true based on the experience of my country)

[TiphEret 1,320]

Ok but what change do you suggest? Is this the limits of capitalism as such or the kind of capitalism we apply? Also what do you think of mouvement like decroissance and such basically instead of consuming and trying to grow extensively, trying to be sustainable, limit growth and consume less? Can this contradict our current economy? 

[Economy 52,854]

1 hour ago, CallMe said:

Switzerland doesn't take in a lot of migrants. We're doing quite fine though. Someone explains that to me pls ? (Not saying it's fine, it drives me mad, but i'm just wondering if the "all the countries will want migrants" is fully true based on the experience of my country)

I thought switzerland had tones of immigrants

 

either way. Demographics is merely 1 factor and not the sole factor that will determine anything

 

Switzerland is very competitive for all kinds of reasons and companies want to invest there

[Economy 52,854]

53 minutes ago, TiphEret said:

Ok but what change do you suggest? Is this the limits of capitalism as such or the kind of capitalism we apply? Also what do you think of mouvement like decroissance and such basically instead of consuming and trying to grow extensively, trying to be sustainable, limit growth and consume less? Can this contradict our current economy? 

Raising retirement age, and increased productivity per worker (something technology and automation does) can help

 

But ultimately our economic system does well with growth because some aspects of it resemble a ponzy scheme so it must grow

 

The way our economy works, it does poorly if economic activity shrinks

 

If population decreases and demand for everything falls, we see what has happened in Japan...

 

Companies do not invest to expand because demand for most goods is falling, prices fall into deflationairy spiral, people hord cash because money gains value so you dont invest money in anything useful you just let money sit in bank, banks have little demand for credit because businesses arent borrowing and people arent either so financial system goes dormant...

 

Additionally the Government can no longer overspend sustainably because the economy cant outgrow its debt ratio so we have to put up with austerity when we have low economic growth

 

A system designed to expand malfunctions when its forced to shrink or not grow