DIVA 666 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 54 minutes ago, Aura Veil said: I hope people realize that bernie and trump attract anti-establishment and independent voters. If Bernie doesn't win the democratic nominee, then there exists the likelihood that those Bernie supporters may become radicalized by Trumps rhetoric. Consequently, this gives him even stronger numbers to face off against Shillary Clinton. I hope Bernie comes out as the winner for the sake of this country. Do you watch the drunken peasants??? We're all Stronger Together! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aura Veil 2,395 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said: No way. Bernie supporters believe in almost the opposite of what Trump says. This will not happen. If anything, most Bernie supporters will vote for Hilary or will not vote at all (many are young). I really hope Bernie wins, but I fear that him losing the nominee will validate all of the anger his supporters have towards the DNC. They will see her connections within the DNC as the reasons he wasn't the nominee. Furious Bernie Sanders voters would rather vote for an anti-establishment nominee than Clinton. His supporters have to be allocated somewhere, and Clinton's inconsistent track record might repel any Bernie voters. This is the most nerve wracking election I've ever kept up with. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AddMeOnMYSPACE 2,097 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Bernie is so hot Can't wait to vote! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yves 1,891 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I really do hope that Bernie would win. He's the best candidate out there. I do wish that Gaga's isn't good friends with the Clintons so she can support him but you know. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mast 980 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Warholian said: That's ridiculous. I'd love for you to provide those sources though as every single professional political analyst will tell you otherwise. Summary of the mock election: http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/video/mock-election-predicts-bernie-sanders-president-36168337 actual mock election: http://wiumpe.com/ Polls showing Bernie winning: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html The average for Clinton/Trump is Clinton +2.0 as well, if you were wondering. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warholian 6,880 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Mast said: Summary of the mock election: http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/video/mock-election-predicts-bernie-sanders-president-36168337 actual mock election: http://wiumpe.com/ Polls showing Bernie winning: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html I have no doubt any candidate can beat Trump. What you said is that there are polls showing Bernie Sanders getting the nomination. You also didn't really specify that you were only referring to a general election with Trump as the Republican nominee. With any other nominee he wouldn't have a chance of winning. Trump would literally the easiest candidate to beat in general election history. Kevin Parker, Mac Demarco, Mark Ronson, and a stoned Lady Gaga. Need I say more? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mast 980 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Just now, Warholian said: I have no doubt any candidate can beat Trump. What you said is that there are polls showing Bernie Sanders getting the nomination. You also didn't really specify that you were only referring to a general election with Trump as the Republican nominee. With any other nominee he wouldn't have a chance of winning. Trump would literally the easiest candidate to beat in general election history. No, I said (Western Illinois University's) mock election predicted Bernie winning the nomination and the office. Then, I stated that polls show Bernie winning against Trump. Also, did you check Real Politics at all? Because what you're saying is false. According to RCP averages: Bernie would win against trump by +2.0. The same is true for Hillary. A Bernie/Rubio election would result in Bernie losing to Rubio by -1.0. A Clinton/Rubio would result in Clinton losing by -3.0. Bernie would still have a better chance at winning. Bernie/Carson would result in Bernie winning by +0.5. Clinton/Carson would result in Hillary winning by +0.5 as well. Bernie/Bush would result in Bernie winning by +3.0. Clinton/Bush would result in Clinton winning by +2.4. The point is that that in all the match ups, Bernie has a better chance at winning the general election than Clinton if he were to get the nomination. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAMROD 117,118 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 That's cool! People gotta know As for Hollery, (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ✧*:･ﾟ ᶠʳᵒⁿᵗ ᵗᵒʷᵃʳᵈ ᵉⁿᵉᵐʸ (*´艸｀*) ♡♡♡ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
shane_c 480 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 If Sanders did get the nomination THEN he would be attacked by the Republican candidate, Republican party, conservative media... and scrutinized by the press and his poll numbers would plummet. Polls now about the General Election mean almost nothing unless its a candidate that the voters are very familiar with. Hillary's numbers are more predictive because the voters know her and their opinion about her probably wouldn't change much. And Hillary has been under attack by the republican party and the press for over two decades. Until this year nobody had any idea who Bernie Sanders was, and most voters still don't know much about him. The truth is if it was Sanders against Trump Trump would probably win easily because Sanders is too far left for the electorate. Voters just don't know that yet, but they would if he ever became the nominee. Those same kind of pols show Ben Carson doing well in the GE too and he's totally unqualified and too extreme. Its the same with him, voters dont know much about him. You cant use polls like that to predict a GE. You've got to have a sense of what the majority of voters believe and what would happen to a candidate once they faced scrutiny in a GE. Someone too far left or too far right cannot win. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warholian 6,880 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Mast said: No, I said (Western Illinois University's) mock election predicted Bernie winning the nomination and the office. Then, I stated that polls show Bernie winning against Trump. Also, did you check Real Politics at all? Because what you're saying is false. According to RCP averages: Bernie would win against trump by +2.0. The same is true for Hillary. A Bernie/Rubio election would result in Bernie losing to Rubio by -1.0. A Clinton/Rubio would result in Clinton losing by -3.0. Bernie would still have a better chance at winning. Bernie/Carson would result in Bernie winning by +0.5. Clinton/Carson would result in Hillary winning by +0.5 as well. Bernie/Bush would result in Bernie winning by +3.0. Clinton/Bush would result in Clinton winning by +2.4. The point is that that in all the match ups, Bernie has a better chance at winning the general election than Clinton if he were to get the nomination. Polls matching up candidates before the primaries have a ridiculously wide margin of error. When we're talking about Bernie maybe performing better than Clinton by 1 or 2% it means absolutely nothing. What matters here is who will get the nomination. Clinton's near certain to win Iowa. Bernie may or may not get New Hampshire, but Clinton will devour South Carolina, leading her into the nomination. I really don't know why the western Illinois poll said what it said as Clinton is poised to win the nomination with primary wins in Iowa and South Carolina, but after more research into their mock election I really think they're full of ****. That's their laughable election map predicting Hawaii to turn red, Mississippi to turn blue (first since 1980), Nebraska to turn blue (the first time since ****ing 1968, and only once has it happened since 1940), Illinois to turn red (the first time since 1992), Oklahoma to turn blue (the first since 1968)... It's insane. You're telling me Bush couldn't even pull Florida, the state he governed successfully for years? This alone should devalue anything they put out. Bernie Sanders isn't going to win the nomination, trust me. He'd have to have massive luck in Iowa and a miracle in SC. Kevin Parker, Mac Demarco, Mark Ronson, and a stoned Lady Gaga. Need I say more? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mast 980 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 On 1/10/2016 at 4:44 AM, Warholian said: Polls matching up candidates before the primaries have a ridiculously wide margin of error. When we're talking about Bernie maybe performing better than Clinton by 1 or 2% it means absolutely nothing. What matters here is who will get the nomination. Clinton's near certain to win Iowa. Bernie may or may not get New Hampshire, but Clinton will devour South Carolina, leading her into the nomination. I really don't know why the western Illinois poll said what it said as Clinton is poised to win the nomination with primary wins in Iowa and South Carolina, but after more research into their mock election I really think they're full of ****. That's their laughable election map predicting Hawaii to turn red, Mississippi to turn blue (first since 1980), Nebraska to turn blue (the first time since ****ing 1968, and only once has it happened since 1940), Illinois to turn red (the first time since 1992), Oklahoma to turn blue (the first since 1968)... It's insane. You're telling me Bush couldn't even pull Florida, the state he governed successfully for years? This alone should devalue anything they put out. Bernie Sanders isn't going to win the nomination, trust me. He'd have to have massive luck in Iowa and a miracle in SC. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/arg-january-dems-iowa-nh Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wahkeenasitka 1,995 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LebaneseDude 6,146 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 On 1/10/2016 at 1:47 AM, SISTERV said: Unless Carly Fiorina (the republican dark horse) is up against Hillary. I love how passionate you are about Carly Fiorina Edited just now by LebaneseDude. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SISTERV 3,887 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 1 hour ago, LebaneseDude said: I love how passionate you are about Carly Fiorina Thank you. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
shane_c 480 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A Year Out, Ignore General Election Polls, They have little relationship to the final outcome. George H.W. Bush was ahead of Bill Clinton by 21 percentage points (Clinton won) they also had Jimmy Carter defeating Ronald Reagan by 16 percentage points in the 1980 election (Reagan won by a landslide) George W. Bush had a 12-percentage-point advantage over Al Gore in the early polls for the 2000 election, but Gore went on to win the national popular vote by half a percentage point https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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