Germany Is No Longer Russia's Best Western Friend

[Melech 9,900]

 

 

Germany has been Russia's key partner in Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but there are signs that Berlin is prepared to change this situation  and the sticking issues will take a long time to resolve and could determine the future of Russia-Europe relations as a whole, a--lysts say.

Last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel toughened her rhetoric on Russian President Vladimir Putin in an apparent sign she is prepared to endure a long-term confrontation.

"The actions of Russia [in Ukraine] have called the peaceful order in Europe into question and are a violation of international law," she said in a speech in parliament Wednesday.

"Economic sanctions remain unavoidable and show that in our efforts to get through the crisis we will need patience and perseverance," she said.

In the same week, the annual meeting of the high-profile St. Petersburg Dialogue Germany-Russia forum that was attended by Merkel and Putin in person was postponed indefinitely, the forum's organizer Martin Hoffman told The Moscow Times.

"We are losing Russia not in terms of Putin and elites, but in terms of people at large," Hoffman, the director of German-Russian forum said in a phone interview.

The meeting of the forum's chairs was scheduled for Dec. 1, but was canceled due to Germany's demand to reform the forum for it to include more independent civil society members.

Matter of Principle

Germany has chosen to put the wellbeing of the EU above its own bilateral relations with Russia in deference to the values that define the EU, Fyodor Lukyanov, head of Russia's Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, told The Moscow Times.

"For them, the priority is European unity and the future of the EU, which is increasingly becoming a German organization. It made the choice to act in the name of the EU and underline its leadership," he told The Moscow Times.

Analysts said Merkel is keenly aware of her country's unofficial role as the leader of the EU, and is exercising caution in the knowledge that other state leaders look to Berlin for guidance.

"Merkel expresses the policy of the union as a whole now," Lukyanov said.

Bolstered by the economic centralization that followed the 2008 financial crisis, Germany, whose export-oriented manufacturing has benefited over the last 15 years from the weakening of the euro, found itself in a leading role in Europe; in terms of the Ukraine crisis this role is also strengthened by the country's traditionally strong ties with Russia. 

Germany bailed out much of the EU after the 2008 financial crisis, which pushed the common currency project to the brink of collapse. As a result, the country feels even stronger now about keeping the EU united, and is treading a fine line to avoid sparking divisions among the union's diverse 28 members, a--lysts said.

At the same time, the concept that with power comes responsibility is also driving Germany's Russia policy, experts agreed.

Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said earlier this year that Berlin should assume an expanded and more assertive role in international affairs. The policy, sometimes dubbed the "New Responsibility," called for more German leadership in European affairs.

Germany is no longer squeezed between the U.S. and Russia, said Ulrich Speck, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels.

"Germany cannot be a mediator anymore, because it is an actor now; Germany is the big guy by itself," he said in a phone interview.

Crossing a Red Line

In this situation, a stronger Germany had a choice: It could lead Europe in an attempt to mediate the crisis, reaping benefits from the increased trust with Russia and Putin in particular, or it could toughen its rhetoric and emphasize that the Kremlin has crossed a red line by annexing Crimea.

The key issue in this situation was the legality of Russia's Crimea annexation, which is contrary to the EU rhetoric and values, said Vladislav Belov, head of the German Studies Center at the Russian Academy of Science.

"It is very important for Merkel to maintain strong rhetoric on Putin and Russia, demonstrate her unbending will and independence from Moscow," he said.

On Friday a poll commissioned by ZDF television found that 58 percent of Germans back the EU sanctions even if they damage the German economy, up from 52 percent a month ago. The poll also found that 76 percent supported the sharper tone of Merkel's recent criticism of Putin's policies.

Belov expects that Merkel will keep up the harsher rhetoric for at least three or four months, until the EU has to decide whether it will extend sanctions against Russia or not. In the long term, the status of Crimea will be agreed upon at least informally: The recent plea by former German minister Matthias Platzeck to recognize Crimea as Russian territory is a sign that this process is under way, Belov said.

Personal Chemistry

In a recent in-depth profile of Merkel, the New Yorker magazine reported that Putin had lied to her on at least one occasion: in May, when the official Kremlin statement about a phone call between the two leaders was more positive that the stance Merkel believed they had agreed on in advance. According to the profile, Merkel was furious and canceled a call scheduled for the following week.

A comparison of each of the three official Kremlin statements on phone calls between Merkel and Putin in May revealed nothing that stood out. Overall, Merkel and Putin have spoken on the phone at least 40 times in the last nine months, according to the Kremlin's website. 

Tatyana Stanovaya of the Center of Political Technologies think tank in Moscow said that Merkel's personal enmity toward Putin plays a large role in bilateral dynamics.

"Merkel personally dislikes Putin as a person, so she is putting her stakes on regime change in Russia, which will take some time. She thinks it's impossible to agree upon anything with today's Russia and its leader, who cannot be trusted," Stanovaya said in a phone interview.

While Merkel's predecessor called Putin a "flawless democrat," Merkel reportedly told U.S. President Barack Obama that Putin lives "in another world."

At the same time, Belov pointed out that when Putin was two hours late for a meeting with Merkel in Milan in October, her advisors told her to cancel it, but the meeting was instead re-scheduled for another time.

"Putin and Merkel spoke for four hours in Brisbane [at the recent G20 Summit], they communicate with each other more than they do with any other world leaders. This is constructive dialogue, but its content is secret," he said.

During the summit in November, Merkel confronted Putin during a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders in a Brisbane hotel, but the four-hour stand-off did not yield much fruit. Several German officials told Reuters following the meeting that they anticipate a long period of confrontation, "akin to a second Cold War."

At the same time, on a number of occasions Merkel has said that she doesn't let personal emotions interfere with her political judgement or logic.

"With Russia now, when one feels very angry I force myself to talk regardless of my feelings," she said in a speech at the German Historical Museum last May as quoted by the New Yorker. "And every time I do this I am surprised at how many other views you can have on a matter that I find totally clear."

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/why-germany-is-no-longer-russia-s-best-western-friend/512482.html

 

 

Poor Russia. Loosing Germany

[KingOfSpain 10,010]

[LaMaisonGaga 23,884]

Good. I hate Russia.

[LeoFameMonster 1,592]

now only if china does the same Russia will collapse and the people will force putin out. But then again, with how accepting the Russian people are about allowing the public and law enforcement to just assault gay people, even the teenage kids, I doubt their frame of mind will lead them into a revolution.

[bumblebee 2,528]

now only if china does the same Russia will collapse and the people will force putin out. But then again, with how accepting the Russian people are about allowing the public and law enforcement to just assault gay people, even the teenage kids, I doubt their frame of mind will lead them into a revolution.

 

 

I would not say people are accepting about the things which you have outlined, I would rather say most of them are indifferent. There is a very small group of hate extremists which leads this stupid and cruel frontier against lgbt community, and the majority of people do not care about it, thus making themselves look as if they are accepting it. 

 

Revolution is the last thing people in Russia should be aiming for. When it comes to politics, it is the evolution of mind and consciousness that would make a lot more sense. There are already some signs of the change in the mood about the government and the politics, particularly among young people. However, Putin is likely to remain the president of this country till 2024, and I will try to explain why. 

 

It's quite hard to put in words the 'mess' which took place in Russia during the 90s, right after the Soviet Union had collapsed. The situation was a nightmare: people were not paid their wages for months, there was a drastic cut in the social benefits, the inflation shoot to horrifying speed, the unemployment level was extremely high, the shelves in the stores were empty. It ultimately ended with Russian government accepting default in the late 90s. 

 

Many people have been through those times, and that's why they see Putin as the guy who came and saved the country from those dark times. They will tolerate currency courses, sanctions, expensive products and violations of lgbt community rights as long as the government provides them with the kind of stability. 

 

On the other hand, there is a younger generation now, and they were too young in the 90s to remember the economic horror which took place back then. They will not tolerate the stupid politics of government and they will be the ones to vocally express tension in the future. However, I think that at the next presidential election thew will still represent the minority of voters.

 

On the China though: they are not considered the most democratic country in the world either  I doubt they will join the sanctions politics        

   

[HANZ 4,380]

now China needs to leave Russia and they are 100%  ****ed up

 

 

   

[RAMROD 117,040]

Well, I guess they will ally with Muslim countries now.

[Dolev 867]

Well, I guess they will ally with Muslim countries now.

That'd be a new low. I see no stable Muslim countries right now that Russia could ally with. They're all fighting radical Islam and having economy issues.

[HANZ 4,380]

Well, I guess they will ally with Muslim countries now.

russia and muslim countries= the worst of the worst in the world

 

just imagine that

 

[Luc 4,776]

now only if china does the same Russia will collapse and the people will force putin out. But then again, with how accepting the Russian people are about allowing the public and law enforcement to just assault gay people, even the teenage kids, I doubt their frame of mind will lead them into a revolution.

China sees the bwnefits of having Russia as a partner... amd they even support North Korea so long way to go

russia and muslim countries= the worst of the worst in the world

 

just imagine that

 

Nah. Russia is seeking partners in Central Asia and East Europe. Russians are probably the most Islamophobic people in the world, and they hate muslims even more because of Chechenya

[HANZ 4,380]

Nah. Russia is seeking partners in Central Asia and East Europe. Russians are probably the most Islamophobic people in the world, and they hate muslims even more because of Chechenya

they literally hate everything I see

[bionic 50,111]

I swear one of the Germany threads we had within the past week said that they were. That was a swift falling out.

[LeoFameMonster 1,592]

I would not say people are accepting about the things which you have outlined, I would rather say most of them are indifferent. There is a very small group of hate extremists which leads this stupid and cruel frontier against lgbt community, and the majority of people do not care about it, thus making themselves look as if they are accepting it. 

 

Revolution is the last thing people in Russia should be aiming for. When it comes to politics, it is the evolution of mind and consciousness that would make a lot more sense. There are already some signs of the change in the mood about the government and the politics, particularly among young people. However, Putin is likely to remain the president of this country till 2024, and I will try to explain why. 

 

It's quite hard to put in words the 'mess' which took place in Russia during the 90s, right after the Soviet Union had collapsed. The situation was a nightmare: people were not paid their wages for months, there was a drastic cut in the social benefits, the inflation shoot to horrifying speed, the unemployment level was extremely high, the shelves in the stores were empty. It ultimately ended with Russian government accepting default in the late 90s. 

 

Many people have been through those times, and that's why they see Putin as the guy who came and saved the country from those dark times. They will tolerate currency courses, sanctions, expensive products and violations of lgbt community rights as long as the government provides them with the kind of stability. 

 

On the other hand, there is a younger generation now, and they were too young in the 90s to remember the economic horror which took place back then. They will not tolerate the stupid politics of government and they will be the ones to vocally express tension in the future. However, I think that at the next presidential election thew will still represent the minority of voters.

 

On the China though: they are not considered the most democratic country in the world either  I doubt they will join the sanctions politics        

   

Some really interesting things you just said. Although I cannot agree with you saying that they are not accepting of it they just don't care/ indifferent. Being indifferent to the cruel and violent treatment of teenagers, allowing citizens to attack gay people in the street for no reason, having police forces brutal attack gay kids and then turning a blind eye is almost the same as doing the violent act yourself. Mind you this has become a law that was passed through their government by the people who represent the people. Putin did not start this law but he allowed it because he saw that the Russian people supported it. I have heard many people throughout my life say that Russians are cold, mean, unfriendly and rude. I myself never thought this about Russians until recent events with the LGBT and Ukraine who made me believe what a lot of people have said. I cannot accept your argument that they are just indifferent to the cruel punishment that their citizens, themselves inflict on LGBT people. 

 

Regarding china well I agree they aren't the most democratic country in the world but they have more ties with the western world than Russia. With that being said we have influence on foreign policy with China and I believe it is only a matter of time before China joins the band wagon. Once the oil from Canada starts to flow to china they will start to distance themselves from Russia.

 

This is a huge mess and Putin is just making things worst. I feel sorry for the people in Russia who don't share this brutal mentality but will suffer the sanctions.  

[LeoFameMonster 1,592]

China sees the bwnefits of having Russia as a partner... amd they even support North Korea so long way to go

Nah. Russia is seeking partners in Central Asia and East Europe. Russians are probably the most Islamophobic people in the world, and they hate muslims even more because of Chechenya

 

China does see the benefits with Russia and it is all oil. Once the oil from Canada starts to fill up China's thirst then they will distance themselves from Russia. China has more ties to the Western world than it does with Russia and North K so if a war started or we pressured China they would 100% jump ship and ally with the west. China knows where their bread is buttered and if the west falls then China will crumble. China's best bet is to follow in line with the rest of the free world because there is no larger consumer of China's products than the free world.

[bumblebee 2,528]

Some really interesting things you just said. Although I cannot agree with you saying that they are not accepting of it they just don't care/ indifferent. Being indifferent to the cruel and violent treatment of teenagers, allowing citizens to attack gay people in the street for no reason, having police forces brutal attack gay kids and then turning a blind eye is almost the same as doing the violent act yourself. Mind you this has become a law that was passed through their government by the people who represent the people. Putin did not start this law but he allowed it because he saw that the Russian people supported it. I have heard many people throughout my life say that Russians are cold, mean, unfriendly and rude. I myself never thought this about Russians until recent events with the LGBT and Ukraine who made me believe what a lot of people have said. I cannot accept your argument that they are just indifferent to the cruel punishment that their citizens, themselves inflict on LGBT people. 

 

Regarding china well I agree they aren't the most democratic country in the world but they have more ties with the western world than Russia. With that being said we have influence on foreign policy with China and I believe it is only a matter of time before China joins the band wagon. Once the oil from Canada starts to flow to china they will start to distance themselves from Russia.

 

This is a huge mess and Putin is just making things worst. I feel sorry for the people in Russia who don't share this brutal mentality but will suffer the sanctions.  

 

First of all, thank you for your response, but you got me all wrong about the indifference/accepting thing. In no way am I trying to justify the behavior of Russian people who pay no attention to this whole violent movement against the establishment of lgbt community in Russia. I just wanted to point out that this cruelty in no way differs from the United States, where even nowadays there are plenty organizations there which claim to be 'religious' or 'semi-religious' with the 'GOD HATES FA**S' campaigns, gay converters and all this bullsh**. It is just that people in the United States stand bravely and openly against them, while Russian people neither endorse nor condemn it.

 

Secondly, on China. I suppose you've heard about the new course which their government has proclaimed? They are now trying to switch from the export growth model, when they were heavily reliable on the USA/Europe purchasing powers, to the inner consumption growth model, when they are trying to foster the purchasing power among its 1.357 billion population. So their ties with the western world, although still strong, will see some change in the future. Also, if you pay attention to the UN news, you know that China rarely votes together with UK, USA and France on the resolution in the Security Council. It either doesn't vote at all or backs Russia's side.