US Charts Discussion - Track "Applause" here!

[hausofmike 127]

ARTPOP mess

[Ozzy8923 9]

If Robin performs at the VMA's, then we have a serious problem. 

[Arturo 40,746]

Did we even get any performers today?

[Ozzy8923 9]

I should also mention that he'll be releasing his album later this month! Predictions?

 

I say 400K if he promotes. 200K at least based off the success of the lead single and the fact that the album is also called Blurred Lines so people might look up and the song and end up finding the album instead and then just buying it. 

Edited July 17, 2013 by Ozzy8923

[Arturo 40,746]

I should also mention that he'll be releasing his album later this month! Predictions?

 

I say 400K if he promotes. 200K at least based off the success of the lead single and the fact that the album is also called Blurred Lines so people might look up and the song and end up finding the album instead and then just buying it. 

300k

[Klou 2,365]

I think the lead will have more than 70M its first week, tbh. It should get around 50M alone in its first day. Streaming will be hard to decipher because she's a worldwide artist - most of the views/streams will come from outside the U.S.

 

 

I was being conservative with Gaga's numbers and exaggerating with Blurred Lines to create a "worst case" scenario of sorts.

[hausofmike 127]

Robin Thicke racks a sixth week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with "Blurred Lines," featuring T.I. and Pharrell, equaling the longest command for a leader this year. Plus, as Jay Z's album "Magna Carta... Holy Grail" rockets onto the Billboard 200 at No. 1, "Holy Grail," the lead single from the set, debuts on the Hot 100 at No. 8.

As "Lines" spends a sixth week at No. 1 on the Hot 100, the song ties Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' "Thrift Shop," featuring Wanz, for the longest run atop the ranking this year. "Shop" led for four weeks in February before ceding the summit to Baauer's "Harlem Shake" for five frames. "Shop" then returned for two more weeks at No. 1 in April. (Bruno Mars' "Locked Out of Heaven" wrapped a six-week command the week of Jan. 26, but, having ascended to No. 1 the week of Dec. 22, 2012, only four of its weeks on top were tallied in 2013.)

"Lines" leads Radio Songs for a second week, gaining by 15% to 179 million all-format audience impressions, according to Nielsen BDS. Dating to the chart's December 1990 launch, only four songs have logged higher weekly audiences: Mariah Carey's "We Belong Together," which peaked with 212 million the week of July 9, 2005; Beyonce's "Irreplaceable" (196 million, Jan. 20, 2007); Alicia Keys' "No One" (192 million, Dec. 22, 2007); and Mario's "Let Me Love You" (190 million, Feb. 5, 2005).

"Lines" tops the Digital Songs chart for a seventh week, selling 384,000 downloads (down 9%) in the Nielsen SoundScan tracking week. With the total, the song passes 3 million sold to date (3.2 million). "Lines" spends a second week atop the subscription services-based On-Demand Songs chart (2.6 million U.S. streams, up 37%, according to BDS) and pushes 3-2 on Streaming Songs (6.6 million, up 12%). It notches a sixth week at No. 1 on Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs and a ninth week atop R&B Songs.

"Lines" slightly widens its lead on the Hot 100 over Daft Punk's "Get Lucky" (also featuring Pharrell), which ranks at No. 2 for a fifth week. As "Lines" gains by 1% in overall chart points and "Lucky" loses 2% of its total, "Lines" claims a 76% lead in points (after leading by 70% last week).

"Lucky" lifts 3-2 on Radio Songs (139 million, up 7%) and slips 2-4 after tallying six weeks atop On-Demand Songs (1.6 million, down less than 1%), 4-5 on Streaming Songs (4.3 million, up less than 1%) and 5-6 on Digital Songs (157,000, down 12%).

"Lucky" leads Dance/Electronic Songs for a ninth week, passing Baauer's "Harlem Shake" for the longest domination since the chart launched in January.

Miley Cyrus' "We Can't Stop" posts a third week at No. 3 on the Hot 100. It ranks at No. 1 on Streaming Songs for a fourth week (7.4 million, down 5%); logs a third week at its No. 2 peak on Digital Songs (216,000, up 3%), passing 1 million in sales (1.1 million); and advances 49-37 on Radio Songs (33 million, up 26%).

Imagine Dragons' "Radioactive" stays at No. 4 on the Hot 100, while topping Hot Rock Songs for a 17th week. It bullets again at No. 4 on Radio Songs (112 million, up 7%); climbs 6-4 on Streaming Songs with a 12% gain to 4.7 million streams, a new weekly high; and, although it dips by 3% to 179,000 downloads sold (holding at No. 4 on Digital Songs), the track passes 4 million in sales since its release (4.2 million).

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' "Can't Hold Us," featuring Ray Dalton, rebounds 6-5 on the Hot 100, after spending five weeks at No. 1. It tops Rap Songs for a 13th week.

Florida Georgia Line's "Cruise," featuring Nelly, slips 5-6 on the Hot 100, although it crosses the 5-million-sold barrier (5.1 million) with its latest frame (158,000, down 18%). The song rules Hot Country Songs for a monstrous 20th week, moving within one of tying the record for the longest stay at No. 1 since the chart premiered in its earliest form in 1944.

Bruno Mars' "Treasure" bumps 8-7 on the Hot 100, bounding 8-6 on Radio Songs (83 million, up 6%) and 20-15 on Streaming Songs (2.2 million, up 3%). Despite a 9% decline to 131,000, the song passes 1 million in sales so far (1.1 million).

Jay Z notches the year's second-highest Hot 100 debut (trailing only Baauer's "Shake," which, aided by the addition of YouTube streaming data to the chart, launched at No. 1 the week of March 2), as "Holy Grail," featuring Justin Timberlake, bows at No. 8. The cut begins at No. 3 on Digital Songs (196,000) and No. 16 on Streaming Songs (2.1 million). It rises 48-47 on Radio Songs, although with a 9% drop to 26 million.

Of his 72 prior Hot 100 entries, Jay Z had debuted at a higher rank only with "Swagga Like Us" (with T.I. and featuring Kanye West and Lil Wayne), which opened at No. 5 the week of Sept. 27, 2008. Timberlake, meanwhile, nets a new best Hot 100 start. Of his previous 23 Hot 100 hits, he'd begun at a high of No. 22 as a guest, with Timbaland, on 50 Cent's "Ayo Technology" (Aug. 25, 2007).

Upon the debut of "Grail," Jay-Z racks his 20th Hot 100 top 10, extending his mark for the most top 10s among rappers. Lil Wayne and Ludacris share second place with 18 each. Timberlake tallies his 14th top 10 with the entrance.

As previously reported, Jay Z's "Magna Carta... Holy Grail" storms the Billboard 200 with 527,000 copies in its first week, the second-largest sales frame of the year. (2013's biggest week belongs to Timberlake's "The 20/20 Experience," which opened with 968,000.) It's Jay Z's 13th No. 1 on the ranking, extending his record for the most leading sets among soloists.

Rounding out the Hot 100's top 10, Timberlake's former No. 2 hit "Mirrors" descends 7-9, while Anna Kendrick bullets for a second week at No. 10 with "Cups (Pitch Perfect's When I'm Gone)." The song holds at No. 8 on Digital Songs (121,000, up 3%); reaches the Streaming Songs top 10 (13-9; 3 million, up 9%); and advances 19-16 on Radio Songs (57 million, up 13%).

[Klou 2,365]

"Lines" slightly widens its lead on the Hot 100 over Daft Punk's "Get Lucky" (also featuring Pharrell), which ranks at No. 2 for a fifth week. As "Lines" gains by 1% in overall chart points and "Lucky" loses 2% of its total, "Lines" claims a 76% lead in points (after leading by 70% last week).

 

 

[Arturo 40,746]

*waits for Take Back the Night's debut*

[wiltedbliss 914]

I wanted Miley to go to #2 :cryga:

[Hamlet 67]

I wanted Miley to go to #2

Just wait one more week and she will get it (hopefully)

[Klou 2,365]

I wanted Miley to go to #2

She will. Just have to wait for airplay to catch up.

[Arturo 40,746]

She will. Just have to wait for airplay to catch up.

It'll be Miley's second #2

[nick4bty 2,758]

Blurred Lines is going to snatch Mariah's weave. This is unbelievable. This song is so ****ty, and it's going to end up breaking one of the biggest records in Billboard existence. 

 

I have no idea how his album is going to sell. He has a built-in audience, and now he has a bunch of new fans from this Blurred Lines mess. Could be 300,000+, but I'm going to guess around 200,000. 

 

Holy Grail could be a good template for guessing Gaga's debut. He landed at #8 with just under 200k sales, 26 million AI, and 2.1 million streams. Gaga will likely triple the sales, double the AI, and double-triple the streams. Considering Blurred Line's *expected* dropoff in the next month, it should have no trouble debuting at #1. However, if BL's radio airplay is too strong to be reached, it will debut at #2. No way will it be anything less than that.

[Arturo 40,746]

Blurred Lines is going to snatch Mariah's weave. This is unbelievable. This song is so ****ty, and it's going to end up breaking one of the biggest records in Billboard existence. 

 

I have no idea how his album is going to sell. He has a built-in audience, and now he has a bunch of new fans from this Blurred Lines mess. Could be 300,000+, but I'm going to guess around 200,000. 

 

Holy Grail could be a good template for guessing Gaga's debut. He landed at #8 with just under 200k sales, 26 million AI, and 2.1 million streams. Gaga will likely triple the sales, double the AI, and double-triple the streams. Considering Blurred Line's *expected* dropoff in the next month, it should have no trouble debuting at #1. However, if BL's radio airplay is too strong to be reached, it will debut at #2. No way will it be anything less than that.

Yup. WCS and GL are way too weak to not be overtaken by Gaga's single. The anticipation though