US Charts Discussion - Track "Applause" here!

[Guest]

Imagine if Gaga pulls those single #'s?

Born This Way sold 448k copies in only three days, I am sure ARTPOP's lead single will debut with ~800k. Gaga's been gone long enough, a lot of people miss her music and if it really is a damn catchy song, it WILL break records. If they promote it well, even a 1mil debut could be possible.

[hausofmike 127]

200k tbh

[Cherry 17]

Gaga's first week will be 350-400k at the very least, how high it goes really depends on the song. I don't think it will hit a million, though. I think it will be a few more years before we see a song sell that much in one week.

[Sora 1]

Lana coming for wigs  

[Arturo 40,746]

Here for that 12th Top 10 and 4th #1 :cry:

[Guest]

Her VERY long absence, the size of her dedicated fanbase, the general hype around her, and the supposedly futuristic and revolutionary way of kicking this era off will let her debut with a record-breaking number. It is Gaga after all, if she and Interscope play it right, a million debut is definitely possible.

Remember- Born This Way sold 448k in its first three days and another 509k in its second week. That concludes 957k digital copies in 9 days. Subtract the last three days of the second week and the Grammy boost, and we should have ~750-800k in 7 days.

Now with the current dry situation and competition in pop music, I would definitely expect more than 800k copies.

[Jase 13,289]

iTunes Update

 

01. Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell) - Robin Thicke

02. We Can't Stop - Miley Cyrus

03. Holy Grail (feat. Justin Timberlake) - Jay-Z

04. Radioactive - Imagine Dragons

05. Get Lucky (feat. Pharrell Williams) - Daft Punk

06. Same Love (feat. Mary Lambert) - Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

07. Cups (Pitch Perfect's “When I’m Goneâ€) [Pop Version] - Anna Kendrick

08. Can't Hold Us (feat. Ray Dalton) - Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

09. Cruise (Remix) [feat. Nelly] - Florida Georgia Line

10. Treasure - Bruno Mars

 

11. Clarity (feat. Foxes) - Zedd

12. Safe and Sound - Capital Cities

13. Come & Get It - Selena Gomez

14. Take Back the Night - Justin Timberlake

15. Love Somebody - Maroon 5

16. I Want Crazy - Hunter Hayes

17. Mirrors - Justin Timberlake

18. Boys 'Round Here (feat. Pistol Annies & Friends) - Blake Shelton

19. Wagon Wheel - Darius Rucker

20. The Way (feat. Mac Miller) - Ariana Grande

 

21. Just Give Me a Reason (feat. Nate Ruess) - P!nk

22. The Other Side - Jason Derulo

23. I Need Your Love (feat. Ellie Goulding) - Calvin Harris

24. My Songs Know What You Did In the Dark (Light Em Up) - Fall Out Boy

25. Crash My Party - Luke Bryan

26. I'm Out (feat. Nicki Minaj) - Ciara

27. Tom Ford - Jay-Z

28. Gone, Gone, Gone - Phillip Phillips

29. Runnin' Outta Moonlight - Randy Houser

30. #Beautiful (feat. Miguel) - Mariah Carey

 

31. Cruise - Florida Georgia Line

32. Wake Me Up - Avicii

33. Counting Stars - OneRepublic

34. Don't Ya - Brett Eldredge

35. Sail - AWOLNATION

36. Round Here - Florida Georgia Line

37. Redneck Crazy - Tyler Farr

38. I Love It (feat. Charli XCX) - Icona Pop

39. Parking Lot Party - Lee Brice

40. Mind Your Manners - Pearl Jam

 

Bubbling Under

 

44. Crazy Kids - Ke$ha

46. Royals - Lorde

56. Summertime Sadness [Lana Del Rey vs. Cedric Gervais] [Cedric Gervais Remix] - Lana Del Rey & Cedric Gervais

64. Bubble Butt (feat. Bruno Mars, Tyga & Mystic) - Major Lazer

66. Beneath Your Beautiful (feat. Emeli Sandé) - Labrinth

70. Right Now (feat. David Guetta) - Rihanna

[Ozzy8923 9]

A little late, but here are my predictions:

Single:

Gaga - 800k

Britney - 400k

Eminem - +350k

Katy - 250k

Rihanna - 150k

Album:

Eminem - 800k

Gaga: 650k (depends on the promotion and how the people will react when she comes back)

Katy - 260k

Rihanna - 70k

I am not aware of Britney's average album debuts. Ozzy, feel free to take that part :)

Very good predictions! Except for Rihanna.

 

 

Well, right now she doesn't seem to be able to do over 500K like she did in 2008. 

 

Her opening week sales are:

BOMT [released in January]: 125K

Oops! [released in May]: 1.3M.

Britney [released in Nov.]: 745K or around there. 

ITZ [released in Nov]: 600K+ 

Greatest Hits: My Prerogative [released in Nov]: 255K+

Blackout [released in October]: 290K 

Circus [released in Dec.]: 505K.

FF [released in March]: 275K. 

 

FF was predicted to do over 300K in the spring. Predictions decreased after she did promotional performances which were received very poorly both by fans and the GP, which hindered the albums first week sales. Circus benefited from the fact that she was actually in shape and the promotional performances were a significant improvement from her previous televised performance at the 2007 VMA's, so people ate it up. 

 

This time around, I think the performances will actually be good! If that is the case, along with a possible Target deal, then I predict 300K-400K or, a smaller margin would be 350K-400K. This is also assuming the first single does well and adds to the hype machine around her album releases. 

Edited July 13, 2013 by Ozzy8923

[ryhanna 3,507]

.

Yas, just like MTN

Don't take this personally, but I've seen this kind of thing posted around the forum a few times and it bugs me. Marry The Night performing poorly around that time of year doesn't mean that any single released around that time is doomed.  

[Pop Art 1,773]

Don't take this personally, but I've seen this kind of thing posted around the forum a few times and it bugs me. Marry The Night performing poorly around that time of year doesn't mean that any single released around that time is doomed.  

 

True, but what is also true is that many songs do suffer from the infamous radio Christmas freeze, and we now know that even GaGa isn't guaranteed to be safe from it.

[ryhanna 3,507]

True, but what is also true is that many songs do suffer from the infamous radio Christmas freeze, and we now know that even GaGa isn't guaranteed to be safe from it.

That's true, but it's not like Christmas releases are automatic failures.

[Cherry 17]

True, but what is also true is that many songs do suffer from the infamous radio Christmas freeze, and we now know that even GaGa isn't guaranteed to be safe from it.

"MTN" didn't fail because of the "radio freeze"; there were plenty of other factors.

[Arturo 40,746]

KIIS FM just posted about ARTPOP and the single on Facebook. Ready to hear it played to death on the station

But they got the single date wrong. They said 7/19 not 8/19 I corrected them

[Pop Art 1,773]

That's true, but it's not like Christmas releases are automatic failures.

 

I know. I think it;s just that collectively, us chart freaks are still scarred from Marry The Night's under performance, and so we'll always be wary of singles released during the holiday season. (Or at least that's how I am.) However, we also know that GaGa can do well single wise during this time period - just look at Bad Romance.

"MTN" didn't fail because of the "radio freeze"; there were plenty of other factors.

 

Oh I know, but that was a definite factor.

[Cherry 17]

Oh I know, but that was a definite factor.

Not really, because all the "freeze" does is halt the AI growth of songs for a week or so. If the song was selling better, it would have continued to grow into 2012. But it wasn't, and thus it didn't.

The main reason it didn't do so well was because she had four other singles on the radio in the 7-8 months leading up to its release.

Plenty of songs have been released at the same time as "MTN" and went on to be smash hits.

Edited July 13, 2013 by Cherry