2026 US Midterm Elections

[REALITY 80,421]

Please, I hope to god this is the year Texas flips. If Talarico can't do it, I fear that no one can

[Nessun Dorma 10,664]

Fingers crossed that we’ll have good news today/in the coming days!

[calpky 382]

My prediction is that there is no blue wave or tsunami because the people in this country are genuinely dumb as hell. Never underestimate the power of stupidity, hatred, racism, bigotry and spite. But even if gas prices do swing votes and somehow people vote dem, the republicunts in charge will find some way to rig it.

I mean we're talking about fascist here, do you really think they're just going to give up their power and be like "okay, you won fair and square, arrest us for all the crimes we’ve done". Not even a chance, we're basically Russia now. They’ll never give up power, Project 2025 wasn’t a fictional book.

[bxr 3,803]

Palantir down ~7% at market open 

[Bronco 29,614]

28 minutes ago, calpky said:

mean we're talking about fascist here, do you really think they're just going to give up their power and be like "okay, you won fair and square, arrest us for all the crimes we’ve done". Not even a chance, we're basically Russia now. They’ll never give up power, Project 2025 wasn’t a fictional book.

I mean historically, even looking back on this year....yeah. 

Orban

Vuĉić

Both left without a fight when they saw the scale of opposition facing them was insurmountable. 

The Soviets did it in the 80s when the USSR was collapsing inwards.

If you look at the actions of current Republican leaders - Coryn has deliberately used his role to starve paxton of campaign funds.

Massie has used his seat to embarrass and harass white house staff.

And most importantly, Vance has turned on Trump and is trying to build his exit route through last week's leak to Tucker Carlson (it literally couldn't have been anyone else).

Trump has to go in 2028. And the midterms being a blue wave is the perfect launch pad for the Republican establishment to finally start cutting him loose and building their 2028 strategy. 

Only 2 people need republican successes tonight - Musk specifically in Texas, and Thiel more generally. 

But Thiel has been withdrawing a lot of his wealth and attention from the US since January and increasingly moving it to Latin America. So he's been quieter than usual in the midterms because Brazil and Argentina are his current public endgame. (Again thank you Brazilians for backing Lula)

If any rigging is in place/planned its Florida & Texas. More likely Texas, the people who make the rigging work seem to have a hate boner for DeSantis and are kind of hoping the gerrymandering ****s his 2028 shot. 

[calpky 382]

8 minutes ago, Bronco said:

I mean historically, even looking back on this year....yeah. 

Orban

Vuĉić

Both left without a fight when they saw the scale of opposition facing them was insurmountable. 

The Soviets did it in the 80s when the USSR was collapsing inwards.

If you look at the actions of current Republican leaders - Coryn has deliberately used his role to starve paxton of campaign funds.

Massie has used his seat to embarrass and harass white house staff.

And most importantly, Vance has turned on Trump and is trying to build his exit route through last week's leak to Tucker Carlson (it literally couldn't have been anyone else).

Trump has to go in 2028. And the midterms being a blue wave is the perfect launch pad for the Republican establishment to finally start cutting him loose and building their 2028 strategy. 

Only 2 people need republican successes tonight - Musk specifically in Texas, and Thiel more generally. 

But Thiel has been withdrawing a lot of his wealth and attention from the US since January and increasingly moving it to Latin America. So he's been quieter than usual in the midterms because Brazil and Argentina are his current public endgame. (Again thank you Brazilians for backing Lula)

If any rigging is in place/planned its Florida & Texas. More likely Texas, the people who make the rigging work seem to have a hate boner for DeSantis and are kind of hoping the gerrymandering ****s his 2028 shot. 

I do not share the same outlook or optimism, but I hope you're right and I'm just dooming! 

[PartySick 176,174]

6 minutes ago, Bronco said:

If any rigging is in place/planned its Florida & Texas. More likely Texas, the people who make the rigging work seem to have a hate boner for DeSantis and are kind of hoping the gerrymandering ****s his 2028 shot. 

I really hate to give DeSantis an ounce of credit, he's repulsive, but he doesn't seem to be as willing as someone like Rubio or Vance to go that extra MAGA mile. He's worse than classic conservative evil (Bush, Romney, those types) but not as bad as today's Trump party.

I get the sense that he would prefer to win or lose in a fair election than cheat to win (or worse, cheat and lose anyway).

Though he isn't above pre-election riggery, like redrawing FL's congressional map to net Reps more seats.

Or maybe this is just my sun baked brain rotting from having him as my governor for nearly a decade  

[PartySick 176,174]

A fun tidbit, I was listening to NPR's podcast and they said models have been so heavily weighted in favor of Reps this year that the NYT's poll that has El-Sayed up by 11 right now would have him up by 16 if they used the 2024 models/weighting.

2024 polls were pretty accurate, only underestimating Reps by about 2 or 3 points, so that's reassuring.

We're all dooming about a polling miss but what if the pollsters have overcorrected and are undercounting Dems like they did in 2022 and every special election in 2025? 

With a 2022 styled polling miss, we're talking 55+ Democratic senators with real potential for the next president to have a Democratic supermajority in the senate.

[Shadow 6,762]

2026 House Election Interactive Map

https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/

[Bronco 29,614]

7 minutes ago, PartySick said:

I really hate to give DeSantis an ounce of credit, he's repulsive, but he doesn't seem to be as willing as someone like Rubio or Vance to go that extra MAGA mile. He's worse than classic conservative evil (Bush, Romney, those types) but not as bad as today's Trump party.

I get the sense that he would prefer to win or lose in a fair election than cheat to win (or worse, cheat and lose anyway).

Though he isn't above pre-election riggery, like redrawing FL's congressional map to net Reps more seats.

Or maybe this is just my sun baked brain rotting from having him as my governor for nearly a decade  

I think he'd support rigging if he had the backing purely because if his gerrymander turns into a dummymander (which is potentially happening) it takes his 2028 hopes out back and shoots em ol yeller style. 

[Morphine Prince 110,662]

Republican candidate Ada Calvo won the Guam governorship, flipping the seat from Democratic control

It’s over! Pack it up, Libs! 

[PartySick 176,174]

Officially marking this as my prediction for tonight.

🔴 I have high hopes for Florida but I'll settle for the Republican-lite Jolly as governor since I don't think there's enough juice to squeeze from this state to get my girl Nixon over the line. But, as long as I live here, she's got my vote for whatever else she runs for.

🔵 Ossoff in Georgia and Cooper in North Carolina have basically already won.

🔵 I don't see a world where El-Sayed loses to Rogers in Michigan. He's netting 90+ on the black vote and there aren't enough Jews terrified by his "let's stop killing kids in Gaza" deal to make him lose.

🔵 Minnesota is uncomfortably tight but I don't see Flanagan losing. That state definitely needs some TLC from the party though.

🔵 New Hampshire shouldn't be on this map but the Republican is from a political dynasty so...sure. But Pappas will be the first openly gay man in the US senate so that's fun  

🔵 Brown takes it in Ohio, Acton wins the governor race there too. Vivek really f*cked himself in the end there with the whole "my opponent is lying about being raped at 12" thing and the only thing anyone knows about Husted is he likes data centers and Trump thinks he has a nice ass.

🔵 I think Peltola will win in Alaska simply because it's a coin-flip election and the wind is at the back of anyone with a D next to their name. But she better stop being messy  

🔵 I think the clock has finally run out for Collins. Maine is a blue state and the only reason they kept electing her, a Republican, is because she acted more as an independent. This time? Her approving Trump's SCOTUS picks, not fighting the tarriffs with Canada, and not stopping this Iran war which has exploded the cost of just existing in Maine's climate has all lost her every ounce of goodwill. She rubberstamps Trump's agenda which has led to the sentiment in Maine shifting to "she's invited to the bbq but we don't want her in the senate anymore". Jackson isn't a stellar candidate but, as a generic Democrat, he'll beat Collins.

🔵 Kansas is another coin-flip but...man, we're talking about KANSAS  Reverend Hamilton has made an incredible case to be the first Democrat elected to the senate there in nearly a century and Marshall is just terrible. If Hamilton loses, it's literally only because "I support Republicans" is in the blood of every Kansan West of Kansas City.

🔴 Iowa is so similar to Kansas in regards to the type of people voting there but Hinson is the rare Republican this cycle that isn't a total clown. I think Sand wins the governor race but Turek just barely loses due to people splitting their tickets. People are generally more willing to cross party lines for a state race than a federal race.

🔵 And the golden goose this election, the thing that could rewrite politics for decades, I really, truly do believe Talarico is taking Texas tonight  Blexas is only possible because Paxton, Trump's pick, is so unbelievably repulsive. Repugnant, criminal, disgusting, just downright vile and such a turnoff to any Independents or soft-Republicans who would have had no issue picking Cornyn. But Blexas happening once is opening a can of worms that Republicans are terrified of.

 

 

Excited to see how right or wrong I am

[LateToCult 42,455]

First sign that Beccera isn’t a complete imbecile. 
 

 

[Morphine Prince 110,662]

National Early Vote (Total) 

2026  58,677,062
2022  45,920,446

[Economy 53,356]

1 hour ago, Bronco said:

I mean historically, even looking back on this year....yeah. 

Orban

Vuĉić

Both left without a fight when they saw the scale of opposition facing them was insurmountable. 

The Soviets did it in the 80s when the USSR was collapsing inwards.

If you look at the actions of current Republican leaders - Coryn has deliberately used his role to starve paxton of campaign funds.

Massie has used his seat to embarrass and harass white house staff.

And most importantly, Vance has turned on Trump and is trying to build his exit route through last week's leak to Tucker Carlson (it literally couldn't have been anyone else).

Trump has to go in 2028. And the midterms being a blue wave is the perfect launch pad for the Republican establishment to finally start cutting him loose and building their 2028 strategy. 

Only 2 people need republican successes tonight - Musk specifically in Texas, and Thiel more generally. 

But Thiel has been withdrawing a lot of his wealth and attention from the US since January and increasingly moving it to Latin America. So he's been quieter than usual in the midterms because Brazil and Argentina are his current public endgame. (Again thank you Brazilians for backing Lula)

If any rigging is in place/planned its Florida & Texas. More likely Texas, the people who make the rigging work seem to have a hate boner for DeSantis and are kind of hoping the gerrymandering ****s his 2028 shot. 

Wait leak? Vance turned on Trump?

 

What leak is this???? What did i miss?