2026 Midterm Discussions (Polls, updates, and more)

[PartySick 174,681]

3 hours ago, Bronco said:

18% approval for Trump

3 hours ago, Bronco said:

Generic ballot:

Dems 64%

GOP 29%

Holy moly. 

[Bronco 28,054]

Just now, PartySick said:

Holy moly. 

He's lost the lead with every group except white voters (single digit lead) and non-college educated voters (single digit lead as well). 

Also trailing with every age group except the 45 to 64 age bracket. 

And that swing with the hispanic/latino vote 👀

Basically lost his entire 2024 voter base minus the core 35ish%. 

Excluding tricks (which I'm not 100% convinced they'll pull) the midterms could be a very very interesting night.

[PartySick 174,681]

1 hour ago, Petie Estie said:

if this election isn't like....the biggest loss for any political party in history for the republicans, it'll be wild. They're sabotaging our own economy for literally nothing. Ruining everything. Trade war with Canada making cars 50% more expensive. Gas up the ass because your genocidal buddy wanted to bomb muslims. Just insane. 

Unfortunately the map isn't really favorable for that kind of feat. In the very best case scenario, we're looking at a 54/46 senate (Dem control) and a 230/205 house.

Democrats weren't supposed to perform well this year 'cause the vast majority of elections are taking place in Republican strongholds and states that Trump carried by 10+ points.

But the fact that we're realistically looking at flipping seats in Texas, Iowa, and Kansas (who hasn't elected a Democrat to the senate in 100 years)? 

Like I just said, holy moly  

If this were a more favorable map and polarization wasn't as bad as it is we'd definitely be seeing supermajorities in both chambers and a Dem sweep of every governorship and state level races.

[PartySick 174,681]

1 minute ago, Bronco said:

He's lost the lead with every group except white voters (single digit lead) and non-college educated voters (single digit lead as well). 

Also trailing with every age group except the 45 to 64 age bracket. 

And that swing with the hispanic/latino vote 👀

Basically lost his entire 2024 voter base minus the core 35ish%. 

Excluding tricks (which I'm not 100% convinced they'll pull) the midterms could be a very very interesting night.

Fingers crossed those tricks don't work.

They closed a third of the polling places in the bluest part of Texas and kicked over a million people off the registration rolls and voters are keenly aware of both attempts to cheat.

They gerrymandered around Trump's wins/gains in 2024 and with this level of erosion in support, all they've done is weaken a few solidly Republican districts.

He tried to restrict mail in voting and his cronies on the SCOTUS said "nah".

He tried to bribe voters with a $5,000 check and nobody believes him  

When Democrats stomp, Johnson will drag his feet on seating the new members and Democratic majority and cause a bit of a crisis but I think Thune will work with Democrats in the senate. He seems to be sick of all this bullsh*t.

Trump will, of course, cry that there was rampant cheating, which ironically only seems to happen when he and Republicans are in charge and then lose  

When it's all said and done though, I don't think there are any tricks he can realistically pull that'll save his ass. He's COOKED.

[PartySick 174,681]

Just now, PartySick said:

Fingers crossed those tricks don't work.

They closed a third of the polling places in the bluest part of Texas and kicked over a million people off the registration rolls and voters are keenly aware of both attempts to cheat.

They gerrymandered around Trump's wins/gains in 2024 and with this level of erosion in support, all they've done is weaken a few solidly Republican districts.

He tried to restrict mail in voting and his cronies on the SCOTUS said "nah".

He tried to bribe voters with a $5,000 check and nobody believes him  

When Democrats stomp, Johnson will drag his feet on seating the new members and Democratic majority and cause a bit of a crisis but I think Thune will work with Democrats in the senate. He seems to be sick of all this bullsh*t.

Trump will, of course, cry that there was rampant cheating, which ironically only seems to happen when he and Republicans are in charge and then lose  

When it's all said and done though, I don't think there are any tricks he can realistically pull that'll save his ass. He's COOKED.

OH

And how could I forget gutting the voting rights act  

All that did was galvanize the black vote like never before. If Repukes just sat there and did nothing since 2024 they'd be in a better position than they are now.

[Bronco 28,054]

8 minutes ago, PartySick said:

They gerrymandered around Trump's wins/gains in 2024 and with this level of erosion in support, all they've done is weaken a few solidly Republican districts.

Yeah, its the gerrymandered districts to watch this year for the nerds. 

Potential for an 1894 style dummymander **** up with how badly he's lost the voter coalition from 2024 that they've used to rewrite the districts.

[PartySick 174,681]

Just now, Bronco said:

Yeah, its the gerrymandered districts to watch this year for the nerds. 

Potential for an 1894 style dummymander **** up with how badly he's lost the voter coalition from 2024 that they've used to rewrite the districts.

There are rumors that DeSantis personally crafted the maps here in Florida to both f*ck over Trump in 2026 but act as a fortress for himself in 2028.

That rat has a 60% approval rating here, compared to Trump's 42%, and polls much higher with hispanic and latino voters. I would kinda cackle if he snaked him on the margins

[Bronco 28,054]

9 minutes ago, PartySick said:

When it's all said and done though, I don't think there are any tricks he can realistically pull that'll save his ass. He's COOKED.

Honestly, the GOP seems too divided to pull off coodinated cheating. 

Like the Senate GOP are actively saying they are happy with Paxton losing and want to focus resources elsewhere (Maine & Michigan). 

The potential for dummy manders has House Republicans confused on where to fight.

I don't think any of them have a coordinated plan featuring the other at this point.

And I actively think Trump's ego wants the Republicans to lose without him on the ticket & his admin want the Republicans to lose so they can try and shift the blame onto the Dems for the ongoing economic issues.

[Bronco 28,054]

9 minutes ago, PartySick said:

When it's all said and done though, I don't think there are any tricks he can realistically pull that'll save his ass. He's COOKED.

Honestly, the GOP seems too divided to pull off coodinated cheating. 

Like the Senate GOP are actively saying they are happy with Paxton losing and want to focus resources elsewhere (Maine & Michigan). 

The potential for dummy manders has House Republicans confused on where to fight.

I don't think any of them have a coordinated plan featuring the other at this point.

And I actively think Trump's ego wants the Republicans to lose without him on the ticket & his admin want the Republicans to lose so they can try and shift the blame onto the Dems for the ongoing economic issues.

[Bronco 28,054]

1 minute ago, PartySick said:

There are rumors that DeSantis personally crafted the maps here in Florida to both f*ck over Trump in 2026 but act as a fortress for himself in 2028.

That rat has a 60% approval rating here, compared to Trump's 42%, and polls much higher with hispanic and latino voters. I would kinda cackle if he snaked him on the margins

Honestly, kind of rumour that seems highly plausible. 

I think he's not the only 2028 contender wanting to have some clear water to work with between Trump and them in the cycle.

[PartySick 174,681]

Streets* are saying South Dakota may not be out of reach.

 

*"Streets" is that one Bulwark dude that worked in Bush Sr's administration and as a GOP advisor since the 80s in a members only video and I decided to take their free month  

[LateToCult 42,189]

GOP may give up on GA and NC. 

 

[Morphine Prince 110,002]

Republicans underperformed the polls in the 2022 midterms. 

I hope that’s not the case with Democrats this year. 

[PartySick 174,681]

Two very interesting polls

Emerson for Kansas senate:

🔵 Hamilton 45%
🔴 Marshall 43%

St. Pete Polling for Florida senate:

🔵 Nixon 45%
🔴 Moody 45%

Now, Idk if "St. Pete Polling" is any good but the polling average for Florida has them at 44/47 anyway so...my expectations remain non-existent but my HOPE?!  

[Bronco 28,054]

10 hours ago, LateToCult said:

GOP may give up on GA and NC. 

 

Surprised by Georgia, all the polls ive seen has Graham leading. 

Maybe the internals are significantly worse