Grammy nominations: What to expect

[andy232000 12,428]

So Grammy nominations will be announced in two days, and with the typical discourse happening around Stan Twitter (as usual), it’s always best to ground expectations. Over the past two-three years I have been closely following the Pop Genre and General Field Grammys out of personal interest, but in the process of learning more about the Grammys and the way the operate, I think I’ve achieved a somewhat knowledgable grasp on predicting nominees and winners. So, I’d like to talk about Gaga’s chances so we know what to expect in a few days!

 

Starting with Gaga’s Submissions, she sent 13 confirmed submissions and 2 speculated submissions, which you can check below: 

Lady Gaga's Grammy submissions

MAYHEM
- Album Of The Year
- Best Pop Vocal Album

- Best Engineered Album, Non Clasical

Abracadabra
- ROTY
- SOTY
- Dance Pop Recording
- Music Video

Disease
- Pop Solo

Perfect Celebrity
- Rock Perf
- Rock Song

Harlequin
- Trad Pop Album

- Best Engineered Album, Non Clasical

That's Entertainment
- Best Arrangement

The 2 remaining subs are for Best Album Cover, which is a new category that will be awarded for the first time in the upcoming ceremony. According to The Grammy Guru, we can safely assume most artists sent their covers too. In that case, Gaga would sent both Mayhem and Harlequin for consideration. That’s a total of 15 entries

 

Now onto Gaga’s nominations:

 

What’s “OK LOCK”? 

By “ON LOCK”, I’m referring to nominations she has 100% chance of obtaining. No margin of error, no chance of a snub no matter what. There’s TWO: Best Pop Vocal Album and Best Pop Dance Recording for Mayhem and Abracadabra respectively. She is also the frontrunner on both, but that’s a discussion for another thread. 

 

What’s “ALMOST ON LOCK”? 

Album of the Year. A lot of people like to discredit Gaga and I have seen a lot of users saying that Gaga is a long shot for this award, but the truth is she is one of three frontrunners, AND also, the main Pop Nominee for this year. It’s almost certain she’ll get the nom. The only reason I don’t see this as “locked” is cause the Grammys will always pull something unexpected in some category, so we should introduce a small amount of uncertainty for safety. 

 

What’s “VERY LIKELY”?

The remaining two General Field categories: ROTY and SOTY. Depending on who you ask, and what Pop Media Publications you consume you might have seen people supporting Abracadabra and others saying she’s just barely making it into these categories. I personally think ROTY is a likelier chance that SOTY, but both still remain quite possible and would definitely be a snub if not nominated. The uncertainty is larger than AOTY, but still within the very likely range. 

As for Best Music Video, the visual committee is very selective and sometimes pop stars get shut out if their video isn’t a huge success. Lucky for Gaga, Abracadabra too the world by a storm and she already has two huge preceding videography awards at the VMA: Best Direction and Best Art Direction. Both awards were NOT FAN VOTED, which means it was awarded by industry experts. Again, it introducing a level of uncertainty for protection, but it’s likely too. 

As for Harlequin, given Gaga’s high visibility it’s almost also likely that Harlequin will get a Best Traditional Pop nom. 

 

——— from this point onward we should keep expectations low —————

 

What’s “50/50?”

Disease in Best Pop Solo Performance can happen for sure, and even The Grammy Guru predicts it, however given that Disease was not a commercial success nor had the impact Abracadabra had, larger songs could squeeze it out of the running. 

As for the Remix of Abracadabra, since Gessaffelstein has no track record or reputation at the Grammys, I see him banking considerably on Gaga’s name alone to get the nom. This nom can happen for sure. Regardless, it’s important to note Gaga will not win this award if the song wins.

Best Engineering, non-classical: both Mayhem and Harlequin were submitted here. This is a 50/50 based on quantity alone because everyone submits here, and the variety of albums is too spread out. We can see Mayhem alongside a Jazz, RnB or totally different albums. Since this award goes to the sound engineers Gaga would not win this award either, but Cirkut, Watt and Gaga have been campaigning for it. It would be great to get it because usually the winner here also wins AOTY. Its a 50/50

 

What’s “NOT LIKELY”?

Perfect Celebrity in either of the Best Rock Song and Best Rock Performance would surprise me if she gets in. Perfect Celebrity is not a rock song. It’s an industrial POP EDM song with a Rock performance. Genre specific committees are very closed off to these sort of “let’s throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks” type of submissions, so I don’t think Gaga will get neither of these. Rock Performance is the likelier pick. 

Best Arrangement for Harlequin’s “That’s Entertainment” is also a somewhat long shot because it’s another genre specific category where Gaga has not previously attempted to compete in. She has respect in the Traditional Pop and Jazz fields, but as an arrangement things might not go totally in her favor. This is also Gaga’s first year in the jazz and traditional pop fields without Tony, who absolutely pulled her weight. I would bet on the safe side that it’s best to not expect this one either.

 

What’s UNKNOWN/CANT PREDICT?

Best Album Cover is a new category that has never been awarded before, meaning we have no precedent on what voter “look for” in a deserving cover. Is it technical proficiency? Is it a cover that resonates with the sound and meaning of the album? We also know the voter pool is much smaller because only members of the recording and packaging committees vote. I think that Harlequin could have a shot here, but there’s simply no way of knowing the dynamic of this category until we actually see who’s nominated and who wins. 

 

So, what can we expect? 

We can expect Gaga to receive somewhere between 2-7 nominations, with 5 or 6 being the sweet spot and most likely outcome. This would be a very successful outcome, as most breakthrough artists rack up to 6 noms in the year and true juggernauts (like Beyonce) only surpassing that number, which Gaga can still do.

[InTheCloset 20,415]

I want her to win AOT, SOTY and ROTY and one for Harlequin and some others too

[weed 74,802]

I predict 11 nominations 

[andy232000 12,428]

Just now, weed said:

I predict 11 nominations 

I admit I’m kinda low balling her a bit I can see her grabbing 8-9 if she’s really really lucky but 11 is pushing it in my opinion. Would love that tho the gaggery.

[nodandsmile 11,001]

AOTY, ROTY + Abracadabra's and Mayhem's genre categories are the surest things imo, I am hoping for mv because Parris deserves!

PC in either one of the Rock categories would be cool af but I am not sure that field is voting for her!

[Blackout19 12,513]

i really hope fot the AOTY

[HBDYWM Stan 766]

37 minutes ago, Blackout19 said:

i really hope fot the AOTY

Pretty certain she will be nominated. The winner? Well, there are sections of voters who are voting one way regardless of quality. So, we will see. 

[River 119,064]

Let's say Vanish is the next single and will be released in 2026 during the eligibility period

 

In which scenario can it be nominated for a Grammy? because she didn't submit it for a strange reason, but PC yes?

[Yaaaas Gaga 1,080]

I expect 13 Grammy wins and won’t settle for any less

[4th Time Around 4,591]

I disagree that AOTY is on lock given that GNX by Kendrick Lamar had every bit of Mayhem's critical acclaim and spawned two number one hits. Then again, when have they ever awarded hiphop AOTY?

Edited 2 hours ago by 4th Time Around

[andy232000 12,428]

6 minutes ago, River said:

Let's say Vanish is the next single and will be released in 2026 during the eligibility period

 

In which scenario can it be nominated for a Grammy? because she didn't submit it for a strange reason, but PC yes?

I think it’s not eligible if Mayhem wins any album Grammy, either Pop Vocal Album or ATOY because the body of work is already “recognized”. She could only submit a new song as a single from a deluxe version or just a standalone single. For TDD it’s kinda interesting because the album that was sent this year was the standard edition, so technically TDD is eligible outside of the Song for Visual Media category I think

[andy232000 12,428]

4 minutes ago, 4th Time Around said:

I disagree that AOTY is on lock given that GNX by Kendrick Lamar had every bit of Mayhem's critical acclaim and spawned two number one hits.

It’s a three-way race between Gaga, Kendrick and Bad Bunny. No clear front runner anymore now that Bad Bunny is getting some serious voting boost, Gaga’s aggressive af campaign and Kendrick ghosting everyone and no where to be found. These have leveled the playing field quite a lot 

Edited 2 hours ago by andy232000

[elsamars 3,730]

I predict 14 nominations and 11 wins including AOTY, ROTY, SOTY, LOTY and PDRTY

[jacs vs looser 4,595]

I predict 15 nominations and 17 wins, including an Oscar and a Harper Avery Award.

[andy232000 12,428]

The Grammy Guru has officially predicted Abracadabra for ROTY! 
 

https://x.com/thegrammyguru/status/1986135228436631824?s=46

They are reliable. Like I said, ROTY and SOTY are very very close to being on lock and this gives me more confidence!