GoldDerby ranks Mayhem at #2 on odds of winning AOTY

[Bradley 58,576]

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/grammy-nominations-2026-predictions/

Kendrick Lamar's GNX is currently ranked at #1

Obviously it's early and there will be many more releases throughout the year, but if Gaga could sustain the AOTY narrative and involve Mayhem at high-profile events like Coachella, etc. and win major precursors, we really have a solid chance of winning AOTY this year.

In the iHeartRadio interview with Bowen Yang, she said 'As a personal choice, I really wanted the mayhem to end.' Can you imagine Gaga being recognised for an album wholly about her inner chaos, and her relenting of control? It would truly be a triumph on a professional and existential level for her.

[Bradley 58,576]

Also she seems to have been highlighting to the industry her veteran status a lot. There's this narrative of 'I've been here a long time but I'm also just getting warmed up' that really reinforces her overdue status without any hint of complacency.

[River 110,790]

she became a grammy's darling too so yeah there's a chance.

[Bradley 58,576]

1 minute ago, River said:

she became a grammy's darling too so yeah there's a chance.

It also helps that they've just awarded Beyonce, who would've been the first person to come to mind when they think 'overdue'. Billie and Taylor are still Grammy darlings but even their shine has waned a little in recent years - not that they're likely to have any album releases this year.

It's really between Kendrick and Gaga this time. I wouldn't underestimate Kendrick at all, almost all of his albums have been nominated for AOTY even if he hasn't won.

[Mr S 8,632]

I doubt she wins for a dance album but if she keeps up momentum she can snag a nomination which would be a big deal.

[Bradley 58,576]

1 minute ago, Mr S said:

I doubt she wins for a dance album but if she keeps up momentum she can snag a nomination which would be a big deal.

Love for Sale got a nomination, it's actually easier to get a nom nowadays so I'd say a win would be the real big deal here.

Edited Sunday at 12:52 PM by Bradley

[mamo 18,408]

I think a AOTY nomination is highly likely, a win however just depends on the promotion and the other releases from this year. 

I would love for Gaga to finally win a main category award! Maybe song/record of the year for Abracadabra but due to it’s chart performance on billboard…probably unlikely.

However I do think she’ll sweep the pop/dance categories but she has tough competition now that Miley is releasing so we’ll have to see! 

My predictions for nominations (* = win) 

album of the year

song of the year 

record of the year 

best pop vocal album*

best pop solo performance*

best dance pop recording*

best music video 

[andy232000 10,684]

I did a full thread explaining why this is a possibility! It’s nice to see its somewhat shaping exactly as I predicted. If Gaga is already at #2, if she maintains momentum she could very well upset Kendricks lead. 
 

but It is still too early. Gaga must keep the era alive throughout the entire year, and especially campaign on november-january when the voting begins. We also now know Miley will compete against us in Pop, and while she isn’t as big of a threat, we still should not underestimate her. 
 

 

 

[Kimmo 80,006]

The album is doing extremely well, if it keeps getting this much attention and the next singles smash, I definitely see it winning.
 

The way she’s been dissecting how this album came to life really shows how much work was put into it. This a true Gaga body of work, it shows the authenticity behind Lady Gaga, which is what voters love. They always look for authenticity and this album has it!

[andy232000 10,684]

36 minutes ago, Mr S said:

I doubt she wins for a dance album but if she keeps up momentum she can snag a nomination which would be a big deal.

Mayhem wont compete in the dance categories. The nominees here are usually DJs. She’ll compete in the Pop categories, where she currently has no competition. Best Pop Vocal album, and Best Pop Dance Recording are pretty much on lock as of now.
 

Pop Solo Performance is not on lock just yet. It depends ir Billie Eilish decides to submit Wildflower. Disease or any other single from Mayhem could still be a front runner either way, but given that Wildflower is eligible, that already poses a big threat.  

[Bradley 58,576]

1 minute ago, andy232000 said:

Mayhem wont compete in the dance categories. The nominees here are usually DJs. She’ll compete in the Pop categories, where she currently has no competition. Best Pop Vocal album, and Best Pop Dance Recording are pretty much on lock as of now.
 

Pop Solo Performance is not on lock just yet. It depends ir Billie Eilish decides to submit Wildflower. Disease or any other single from Mayhem could still be a front runner either way, but given that Wildflower is eligible, that already poses a big threat.  

So Abracadabra is going to Pop Dance instead of Pop Solo? Is this certain?

[Louvre 1,698]

I honestly think that the nomination is nearly on lock... she has gotten great responses from fans and critics this era. This being her highest critically reviewed album is pretty huge. She has acclaim, popularity, and industry respect on her side. 

Abracadabra is also due for a song and record of the year nomination. (its inescapable, everyone knows it atp)

Killah should be submitted for best pop duo OR best dance/electronic recording. 

Harlequin for traditional pop (I love this album sooo much and its a unique album in this category and I would love to see her get solo recognition for her love of jazz) 

Abracadabra should absolutely be submitted for best dance pop recording (essentially a lock for a win)

I'm sure they'd submit something for best pop solo performance - I think HBDUWM would be fantastic here. 

MAYHEM would have to be submitted either best dance/electronic album OR Best pop vocal album but not both. I think the album wouldn't have a hard time getting nominated in either of these categories. But it would be wayyyy easier to win dance/electronic album. 

Garden of eden really deserves a nom for best christian music performance too...

And abracadabra deserves to win best music video by far. But they sometimes give this award to randos for some reason. 

Could be a fun year at the grammys for gaga. I look forward to nomination day

[AVeryGagaHolyDick 23,042]

Tbh I’d be mad if Kendrick won AOTY. Maybe he deserves, I don’t know cause I haven’t heard the album, but he won too much this year.

Song of the year? Seriously? Instead of Expresso, BOAF or DWAS?

[Louvre 1,698]

57 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

Mayhem wont compete in the dance categories. The nominees here are usually DJs. She’ll compete in the Pop categories, where she currently has no competition. Best Pop Vocal album, and Best Pop Dance Recording are pretty much on lock as of now.

I agree that abra is essentially on lock for best pop dance recording. 

The dance/electronic recording is usually mostly DJs, which is why I think Killah would be good to nominate in this category. gesaffelstein could have great pull in that category

[Louvre 1,698]

2 minutes ago, AVeryGagaHolyDick said:

Tbh I’d be mad if Kendrick won AOTY. Maybe he deserves, I don’t know cause I haven’t heard the album, but he won too much this year.

Song of the year? Seriously? Instead of Expresso, BOAF or DWAS?

I think it was good when not like us won song OR record of the year. I don't love when the same song wins both - I find it kinda boring.

I don't think GNX is a super satisfying win. Kendrick has been snubbed in the past for far superior albums. Giving it to him for GNX would be a less satisfying win. But with the year he's having... a likely win