Mayhem to debut #1 on Billboard 200 (200k-225k)

[Rat Boy 43,454]

2 minutes ago, julz said:

We also need another #1 HIT...Lets give her that  Gaga release the physicals for Abra, discount it. Abra is close to UK #1 too 

I didn't realise it was doing so well in the UK.

[vanna shintuyu 10,721]

36 minutes ago, Jill said:

Yeah I sure hope it does

 

[SevenWonder 4,305]

Great first week sales, considering the recent Spotify changes and no tour bundles.

Also, the album has already sold like 2 or 3 million ww (can 't remember the exact numbers). This is why I am so glad she added DWAS. We don't have to worry about the charts and can just enjoy the album - which is simply incredible. 

Off the stream LoveDrug because why not?

 

[Flareon Voyager 354]

Seems low? Tate did 177K?

[LilyLark 10,091]

I said this on the other thread, but this is about the same as Ariana's Eternal Sunshine. It's good. She's not getting BTW numbers ever again, but she's still doing better than 95% of her contemporaries in a streaming based world where her type of pop is no longer en vogue.

Gaga has been in the game for 16 years, she doesn't make the most GP friendly music, and the general public in the US has largely moved away from this sort of pop. The younger girls-Billie, Sabrina, Olivia-simply have a broader fanbase, too, and more reach. That's the way the music cycle goes....there is always someone younger. Even then, she's not that far behind them (Olivia debuted with around 300k).

Renaissance opened with around 330k, so Mayhem doing 230k seems realistic, too, as she's never really had Bey or Taylor's numbers.

Edit: they also don't allow bundles anymore, which has hurt every artist. And an example of how pop is bigger in other countries is the UK. Look at how Abracadabra is doing way better there-and has a chance at #1-and Dua is still massive in most of Europe even if her album did so so in the US

Edited March 9 by LilyLark

[LilyLark 10,091]

32 minutes ago, Flareon Voyager said:

Seems low? Tate did 177K?

HTTD tends to underestimate a little-I believe they also underestimated Tate-so I wouldn't be surprised if Gaga ended up with 230-240k.

But nah, it seems realistic. Ariana's Eternal Sunshine dropped with 227k. Tate is also way, way bigger than people realize, despite people clowning on her. Gaga opening with about 60-70k more with Tate, when you factor in streaming, etc. makes sense imo.

[PSYCHOSHTICK 2,820]

1 hour ago, NotoriousEden said:

 

When she silent drops MAYHEM ACT 2 With telephone 2 this week and actually gets 1M sales for debut week 

After 12 years of ARTPOP Act 2 delusion we’re already moving on to MAYHEM Act 2 delusion? 

(No shade, just kidding)

[2ndTimeAround 664]

It will be interesting to see whether her SNL performances will give the album a boost. I think performing Killah was a strategic move because it casted a wider net to pull in different audiences. Abra being the nod to her earlier career and to keep its popularity, but Killah being very Bowie and prince inspired appeals to a broader and older audience, who may be longstanding viewers of SNL. Here’s hoping anyway!

Edited March 9 by 2ndTimeAround
Typo

[culturalbaptism 2,918]

Deserved.

[monstertoronto 10,028]

2 hours ago, Flareon Voyager said:

Seems low? Tate did 177K?

I don't think this seems low, as against Tate.  Tate is a star on the rise, she's 3 albums in and being positioned by her label as the next MPG with so many videos and a huge sold-out tour. Her current album is her breakthrough and debuted at number 1, she's got that brand new star energy. For Gaga 16 years in to still be doing this much better than new shiny acts is actually impressive imo. Don't forget that pop stars are born in large part by appealing to young audiences, and a lot of Gen Alpha is really into Tate, just like there were lots of kids who got into Gaga when she debuted and became the little monsters we have today.  I doubt Tate will necesssarily have the same longevity, but I'm not surprised that Gaga is this close to Tate at this moment in time. 

[RAMROD 109,106]

So happy cos this deserves all the flowers

[gagzus 15,829]

15 hours ago, monstertoronto said:

I don't think this seems low, as against Tate.  Tate is a star on the rise, she's 3 albums in and being positioned by her label as the next MPG with so many videos and a huge sold-out tour. Her current album is her breakthrough and debuted at number 1, she's got that brand new star energy. For Gaga 16 years in to still be doing this much better than new shiny acts is actually impressive imo. Don't forget that pop stars are born in large part by appealing to young audiences, and a lot of Gen Alpha is really into Tate, just like there were lots of kids who got into Gaga when she debuted and became the little monsters we have today.  I doubt Tate will necesssarily have the same longevity, but I'm not surprised that Gaga is this close to Tate at this moment in time. 

Not to **** on anyone but 3 albums in is not a star on the rise nnnn. Many of the modern pop girls are almost half way into the amount of albums Gaga has in nearly 2 decades in literally 3 years which is INSANE to me (also bc they’re not authentically made lbr but I digress)  I’d say she’s Ava Max level really and hasn’t even remotely had success close to even Gaga who’s arguably the least successful commercially of the girls she was around during her peak (Taylor, Beyoncé, Katy (back in the day) etc). 
 

So it makes sense for Gaga to outsell all the newer pop girls because she takes time with her craft and we’re one of the only last remaining fanbases who buy music. 90% of those sales of her album are through streams and maybe 4k actual sales where as Gaga’s is probably easily 100k pure sales plus streaming making up the tether 60%. 

If your “album” is basically a compilation of failed attempts of singles like most of the new ppl are, that’s deffo not a popSTAR Mary that’s a girl with money

[high culture 2,156]

I bought 4 copies so don't look at me

[OliviaRodrigoStan 6,585]

Talent always wins I'm afraid 

[andy232000 11,330]

19 hours ago, NotoriousEden said:

Is this really good? I remember people saying in the “gorgeously explosive” thread that 300k+ would be that

Not really. 

Chromatica did 274k. 
 

For references of other artists: 

- Harry’s House did 521k

- Hurry Up Tomorrow did 490k

- Short N Sweet did 362k

- Hit Me Hard And Soft did 339k

- Renaissance did 332k

- So Close To What (Tate not being a main pop girl yet) did 177k

Ya’ll need to stop using Eternal Sunshine as a reference. 227k is a lukewarm amount considering Ariana’s streaming force. 

200-225k for Mayhem is not horrible, but given the hype and monthly listeners it should be pulling at least close to 265k-280k (I suspect it will go up to at least 220-250k as HDD tends to low ball). The reality is that Gaga isn’t as attractive to the GP and her numbers tend to fall into the lower bound of her contemporaries. 

Edited March 10 by andy232000