Joker 2 projected to open $68M

[Gaby15 10,290]

10 hours ago, Starmie25 said:

Am I the only person who doesn't buy tickets a month ahead of the premiere.

Is it maybe more an American thing?

In my country, the cinema program changes every Thursday and you can buy tickets from Monday, but almost no one buys it in advance. Lately I tend to buy it online the day before, so I have the best seat and only have to show up when the movie starts. In contrast, tickets for popular theater performances must be purchased months in advance.

[LIKELADYAGAGA 4,080]

House of Gucci was projected to open at $15–20 million. It ended up opening with $22 million, surpassing all expectations. That's nearly 1.5 times bigger than the lowest estimate. 

People chronically underestimate Gaga's appeal and the power of little monsters to show up. 

[DoremonLove 8,146]

57 minutes ago, LIKELADYAGAGA said:

House of Gucci was projected to open at $15–20 million. It ended up opening with $22 million, surpassing all expectations. That's nearly 1.5 times bigger than the lowest estimate. 

People chronically underestimate Gaga's appeal and the power of little monsters to show up. 

Many im sure like me will buy a day or 2 prior and go multiple times.

[Future Lovers 6,589]

13 hours ago, FATCAT said:

Yes, if it pulls in $90M domestically in its first week that's more than half the budget in the US alone

It just making it’s budget back is not the goal though keep in mind. It needs 2.5x budget for a breakeven point (so around $450 million). 

At the moment I think that’s still doable, but we have to see the audience response first. If it opens in the current range its in and receives negative audience feedback (we’ll be able to see this by CinemaScore) then it’s legs will collapse quickly and I can almost bet it’ll come in under the mark.

Opening weekend will tell a big story about what is to come. 

[Future Lovers 6,589]

I know most of my reporting on the BO tracking hasn’t been positive and I hate that. I like the first film and I want this to do well.

But I’ve been tracking BO for years now and I’ve learned a thing or two along the way. At this moment, you’re right to be concerned that this will face plant. 

It could pull an Elemental and open low but leg out. It really could. But don’t be surprised if it doesn’t. Don’t be surprised if it gets awful word of mouth. Don’t be surprised if it finishes below $500 million. Don’t be shocked if it doesn’t even break even.

Not saying any of those things are promised, but they’re currently all on the table.  

[Future Lovers 6,589]

11 hours ago, FATCAT said:

I don't think its a musical so much that its a movie that has characters that sing, which is hard to convey to the public 

Spoiler

It very much is a musical according to all that have seen it

 

[Juanjo 1,973]

LMAO How can they predict so soon???

[Future Lovers 6,589]

I honestly think you all need to be worrying less about the musical aspect and more about the plot. 

If this movie face plants, its gonna be because of that not the music. This movie is going to piss audiences off. Big time. 

[Future Lovers 6,589]

1 minute ago, Juanjo said:

LMAO How can they predict so soon???

You can start making long range forecasts a few months in advance rather easily. 

All you need is access to the data about audience reach, pre-sale information, audience awareness surveys, and then you can use comps (performances of other films that hit the same metrics in all those categories) to make a prediction. 

It’s very simple and incredibly commonplace. It is also common for projections to raise or lower closer to a film’s release as those above metrics start to change. 
 

FAD performed well in those metrics until more information came out about the film, then it began to trend down. We will see the final OW prediction the week before release, reflecting the final bits of data in the above categories.  

[GagaGame 3,359]

Is this worldwide? 

[MOT 2,787]

The movie will be successful if it is good. We will find out whether or not it is good when it opens and we can see it.

As for the promo, I doubt if JP is a promo guy and it would be ridiculous for Gaga, as a supporting actor, to be running around doing 100 people in a room and pasta if JP was nowhere to be seen.

[Gagaplayer315 13,719]

Movie better be good or 

[Edonis 28,861]

3 hours ago, GagaGame said:

Is this worldwide? 

domestic 

[Just A Holy Fool 2,487]

It should have been a red flag when Todd Phillips is on record saying it could bomb The tracking keeps going down, it’s not a good sign. I’m sure this will still do in the $500 million range worldwide, but it will be seen as a disappointment. I think we should be prepared to move on quick from this. It’s going to be considered a flop. The only thing that is promising is early reviews praised Gaga and said she was not in it enough.

 

[Battle 4 Ur Life 6,466]

I think they pre-sold at least around 10-20% of that estimate.

I myself am buying it on the very day for sure because I’ve had to refund presale tickets many times because I couldn’t make it as planned. So I’m confident this estimate will be met or surpassed. especially given the mixed reviews, people will pay to judge for themselves how they like it.

It may flop if the GP dislikes it but I’m not fearing a flop premiere.