Morphine Prince 109,960 Posted August 23, 2024 Share Posted August 23, 2024 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ This forecast model was relaunched today. It tells you who is favored to win based off polling, economic, and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bionic 50,111 Posted August 23, 2024 Share Posted August 23, 2024 Harris winning 58 times and Trump 41 is a great start but I'd like that to be MUCH higher. On 23 August 2016, the same website (538) gave Hillary an 84% likelihood of winning. By election night it fell to 71% and the rest is history... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 174,285 Posted August 23, 2024 Share Posted August 23, 2024 2 minutes ago, bionic said: Harris winning 58 times and Trump 41 is a great start but I'd like that to be MUCH higher. On 23 August 2016, the same website (538) gave Hillary an 84% likelihood of winning. By election night it fell to 71% and the rest is history... Polls are more accurate now but also voters have definitely learned to ignore polls. They're cool snapshots in time but not really fit to forecast an election. Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morphine Prince 109,960 Posted August 23, 2024 Author Share Posted August 23, 2024 6 minutes ago, bionic said: Harris winning 58 times and Trump 41 is a great start but I'd like that to be MUCH higher. On 23 August 2016, the same website (538) gave Hillary an 84% likelihood of winning. By election night it fell to 71% and the rest is history... I suspect this year it will be worse than 2020 where it took days to declare a winner. It might take even longer and you just know Trump will start legal challenges to cheat. This election is still a toss up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatigay 21,232 Posted August 23, 2024 Share Posted August 23, 2024 Yes in 2016 the final result was wayyyy off. I'm convinced that while the snapshots in time were accurate, most people were "undecided" and they voted for Trump in the voting booth. He was the shiny new toy, and a lot of people were convinced that Hilary was gonna win by a landslide, so they voted for him not believing he could win. A lot of people hated (and still hate) the name Clinton. In 2024, people KNOW who Trump is and what he's capable of. I think polls are more accurate today because Trump won last time, was president for 4 years, and ran in 2020 and again this year. Kamala isn't as hated as Hilary, and the withdrawal of Joe really changed the game. I think little by little, the trend lines will keep evolving, and that's a good thing : slow trends are more solid than quick jumps. I think she can win. We'll see in 74 days. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 174,285 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 Something interesting I just noticed on the national polling average on 538's front page is that Kennedy dipped and Kamala rose about the same amount. I'm sure it's just statistical noise that won't be a trend but we saw in every 3+ candidate race that Kamala's lead over Trump expanded which meant RFK was taking votes from Trump rather than from Kamala. Could it be possible that there are enough voters out there that had RFK as their first choice and Kamala as their second choice that she'll see a bump rather than Trump from RFK dropping out? Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 174,285 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 One more thing 'cause I'm really loving the polls rn Look at this turnaround In July before Biden dropped out: Compared to the newest polls: A FIFTEEN POINT swing in her favor I expect we'll see her trend into the positive within the next week too 'cause the newest poll has her at +6% which is likely an outlier but still. The positive momentum is crazy. I hope it holds out. She's up by about 4% nationally, Biden won by about 4% but he was up by about 8% in the polls on election day. We need to make that happen. Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonkers 30,871 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 @PartySick let's say a hurricane were to eliminate enough voters to let Harris take Florida. What district would that be? I'm thinking Matt Gaetz' district in the northeast panhandle part? I'm trying to get my bedtime prayer schedule all planned for the next few months. Remember to like and subscribe, and click on the bell icon to get the latest updates Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROHKEUS 677 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 There’s some people here comparing the 2016’s fivethirtyeight to now’s, the site’s leader in 2016 was Nate Silver, he’s doing projections for NYT now I think. That being said, this is based on an aggregate of polls and all that, and polls overestimated republicans on the special and midterm elections since 2020. But yeah don’t get complacent, it’s still very very close, the wind is blowing in Kamala’s favor, but anything can happen, and the extreme right is reckless, Trump will do everything to cause chaos. That’s why we need to talk, try to convince people getting out to vote, bc it needs to be undeniable, it needs to be humiliating. People like Trump can’t have power, we can disagree, that’s how we get things better, but we can’t turn to violence and hate speech every time we don’t win. In love with chaos depressed by fate. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
juicyjuicy 2,006 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 Trump’s definitely winning this I’m afraid. I just know it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceminay 1,122 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 A lot of people are embarrassed to say they’ll vote for Trump, or don’t like him but end up voting for him last minute. This may have lessened since 2016 and 2020, but they shouldn’t get relaxed according to polls. Go stronger than ever. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunkTheFunk 125,733 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 174,285 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 2 hours ago, Bonkers said: @PartySick let's say a hurricane were to eliminate enough voters to let Harris take Florida. What district would that be? I'm thinking Matt Gaetz' district in the northeast panhandle part? I'm trying to get my bedtime prayer schedule all planned for the next few months. Well, Democratic counties are spread thin here. Here's the 2020 map: Honestly, give the whole panhandle West of Tallahassee to Alabama and Florida would probably be blue, Trump only won it by 3% So yeah, Gaetz' district would be a great start I live on Florida's East Coast nipple, there's an oversaturation of MAGA here too if you wanna send another one or something Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ladle Ghoulash 55,288 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 3 hours ago, juicyjuicy said: Trump’s definitely winning this I’m afraid. I just know it. Will never understand this doomer mindset. We have forgotten our public MANNERS Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ladle Ghoulash 55,288 Posted August 24, 2024 Share Posted August 24, 2024 5 hours ago, bionic said: Harris winning 58 times and Trump 41 is a great start but I'd like that to be MUCH higher. On 23 August 2016, the same website (538) gave Hillary an 84% likelihood of winning. By election night it fell to 71% and the rest is history... Wait, but what happened to ur whole “Daddy Trump” schtick 🪦 We have forgotten our public MANNERS Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Featured Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.