Putin invades Ukraine

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Update 7-8 July

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Update 8-9 July

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Russia wants to take all Ukrainian land up to Transnistria.

 

[Dennis 8,391]

59 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Russia wants to take all Ukrainian land up to Transnistria.

 

I love this host. If only everyone had his energy instead of "meh not my problem". If we really wanna keep the post WW2 international order, we must say no to territorial expansions. 

We can't allow dismemberment of nations again through the use of force, it'll only open the gates of hell as more dictators will want to replicate Russia's success.

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

On 7/10/2022 at 1:51 PM, Dennis said:

We can't allow dismemberment of nations again through the use of force.

 

Completely agree with this bit. Though it needs to be said that even if Ukraine wins fully (which very likely won't happen), the world order is going to be irreversibly changed.

I wish the world had the samy energy when Hitler and Stalin partitioned Eastern Europe between each other. The world was ''meh not my problem'', it backfire so badly and we see the effects of the partition to this day.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Update 9-10 July

Update 10-11 July

[Debithius 6,056]

On 7/10/2022 at 11:51 AM, FfFfFfFF said:

Russia wants to take all Ukrainian land up to Transnistria.

 

This was clear to me from the start. He wants the "rich" part of Ukraine and then proceed to Transnistria and then take Moldova.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

13 minutes ago, Debithius said:

This was clear to me from the start. He wants the "rich" part of Ukraine and then proceed to Transnistria and then take Moldova.

I understand what you mean, however the ''rich'' part of Ukraine, in terms of economic development, is its western part, especially Galicia. But the east (Donbas, Kharkiv) is rich in resources and of course there is the Black Sea. This conquest is probably partly about resources, partly about national ambitions, partly about establishing buffer.

I hope you are wrong about Moldova, although the idea that after taking Novorossya, the Russians will link with Transnistria and then make a move on Moldova proper make a bit too much sense for my liking.  Moldova needs to join NATO.

[Debithius 6,056]

5 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

I understand what you mean, however the ''rich'' part of Ukraine, in terms of economic development, is its western part, especially Galicia. But the east (Donbas, Kharkiv) is rich in resources and of course there is the Black Sea. This conquest is probably partly about resources, partly about national ambitions, partly about establishing buffer.

I hope you are wrong about Moldova, although the idea that after taking Novorossya, the Russians will link with Transnistria and then make a move on Moldova proper makes sense.  Moldova needs to join NATO.

Moldova has already been worried about a potential attack. I think Putin will try to take as much land as he can from non EU and NATO members. He is going to use the same excuse for Transnistria as he did with Donbass and Luhansk and the proceed to possibly attack/take Moldova if they don't unify with Romania but they will also probably help protect Moldova proper from Russia. 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

15 minutes ago, Debithius said:

Moldova has already been worried about s potential attack. I think Putin will try to take as much land as he can from non EU and NATO members. He is going to use the same excuse for Transnistria as he did with Donbass and Luhansk and the proceed to possibly attack/take Moldova if they don't unify with Romania but they will also probably help protect Moldova proper from Russia. 

Exactly. Once Moldova becomes a target it's inevitable that Romania will be involved in one way or the other. I'm from Romania and I can tell you that even if we stay neutral, once news about, let's say, Chișinău being bomarded appear, public opinion will likely demand to enter the war (Moldova is to Romania what Canada is to US, in fact we may be even closer culturally). God forbid we ever come close though. 

Moldova knows it can't deafeat Russia in any way, see how they are still against the idea of ASKING to join NATO, let alone starting the actual process. I honestly think they wait for the absolute last moment, when the invasion is imminent because if they ask to join NATO now they become an immediate target. Also another entity to keep in mind besides Transnistria is Găgăuzia. Moscow has a fetish for using autonomous territories with secessionist tendencies. They will start saying Găgăuzia is opressed and they need to step in to ''liberate'' it. 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

 

[Debithius 6,056]

12 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Exactly. Once Moldova becomes a target it's inevitable that Romania will be involved in one way or the other. I'm from Romania and I can tell you that even if we stay neutral, once news about, let's say, Chișinău being bomarded appear, public opinion will likely demand to enter the war (Moldova is to Romania what Canada is to US, in fact we may be even closer culturally). God forbid we ever come close though. 

Moldova knows it can't deafeat Russia in any way, see how they are still against the idea of ASKING to join NATO, let alone starting the actual process. I honestly think they wait for the absolute last moment, when the invasion is imminent because if they ask to join NATO now they become an immediate target. Also another entity to keep in mind besides Transnistria is Găgăuzia. Moscow has a fetish for using autonomous territories with secessionist tendencies. They will start saying Găgăuzia is opressed and they need to step in to ''liberate'' it. 

What worries me is that Moldova can't unify with Romania if Moldova isn't an EU and a NATO member I think. So if Romania decides to protect Moldova all of NATO and EU might get dragged in.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

1 hour ago, Debithius said:

What worries me is that Moldova can't unify with Romania if Moldova isn't an EU and a NATO member I think. So if Romania decides to protect Moldova all of NATO and EU might get dragged in.

Moldova can ask to merge with Romania. In this scenario it would not become a new NATO/ EU member, but it will merge with an already existing NATO/ EU member. Either way, even today, 30% of Moldavians have Romanian citizenship. An attack on a country where a third of the population are Romanian citizens is borderline already an attack on Romania. 

[Debithius 6,056]

8 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Moldova can ask to merge with Romania. In this scenario it would not become a new NATO/ EU member, but it will merge with an already existing NATO/ EU member. Either way, even today, 30% of Moldavians have Romanian citizenship. An attack on a country where a third of the population are Romanian citizens is borderline already an attack on Romania. 

No I mean I thought I read that Moldova have to be a member of both to be able to merge with Romania. Idk where I saw that though.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

1 minute ago, Debithius said:

No I mean I thought I read that Moldova have to be a member of both to be able to merge with Romania. Idk where I saw that though.

Moldova being a NATO/ EU member certainly would facilitate unification, but Moldova can unify even as a non-NATO and non-EU country. Though I can already sense France and Germany's opposition from a mile. The US, UK, Poland, the Baltics will support it, but France and Germany will be hard to win over.