Putin invades Ukraine

[PartySick 172,537]

@FfFfFfFF I saw that a lot of the territory Russia currently controls may be kept permanently. One guy was quoted as saying something to the effect of "I wanted to live in Russia all my life and now I don't even have to move!"

Anyway, it seems Russian officials are having the people living in those areas vote to...idk, be absorbed by Russia I guess. And they want a legitimate vote because it would supposedly send the message to the west that they were right to invade and "liberate" those people from Ukraine.

When will this be over

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

21 minutes ago, PartySick said:

@FfFfFfFF I saw that a lot of the territory Russia currently controls may be kept permanently. One guy was quoted as saying something to the effect of "I wanted to live in Russia all my life and now I don't even have to move!"

Anyway, it seems Russian officials are having the people living in those areas vote to...idk, be absorbed by Russia I guess. And they want a legitimate vote because it would supposedly send the message to the west that they were right to invade and "liberate" those people from Ukraine.

When will this be over

Russia will 100% annex territories permanently, very likely everything they managed to occupy so far (around 2000-3000 settlements). 

I heard that after the invasion support for Russia fell from 30% to 4% in Ukrainian-held Donbas. However, I have no idea how they got this information and during to what extend any polls during war time can be seen as accurate. Certain areas might still be genuinely pro-Russian, others may be pro-Russian by coercion and many areas might very possibily still be pro-independence. Russia held a referendum in Crimea before they annexed it too, in order toto validate the annexation, with military literally at the entrance of the buildings in which the voting took place. The result of the referendums will very likely be what Russia wants - see the results of the 1991 independence referendum held by Ukraine - even Crimea is shown as pro-independence majority.

If the situation solidifies into a stalemate, then all lands occupied from Kherson in the SW to Kharkiv in the NE will de facto become Russian territory. People of these places will start using the rubble, will be completely integrated into Russia's economic system and administation, have Russian citizenship, listen to Russian state TV etc. This has already started in fact. Ultimately this war is a very old-fashioned war being fought to a very large extend for buffer and territory. Almost medieval... 

[PartySick 172,537]

3 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Russia held a referendum in Crimea before they annexed it too, in order toto validate the annexation, with military literally at the entrance of the buildings in which the voting took place.

So the results are totally fair and reliable then

I can't get over what that one man was quoted as saying. Imagine seeing Russian military tear up your country and leave behind bombs and maiming traps in abandoned conquests then saying "Yup! That's who I want to stand with!".

5 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

People of these places will start using the rubble, will be completely integrated into Russia's economic system and administation, have Russian citizenship, listen to Russian state TV etc. This has already started in fact.

Yeah, I heard the ruble (rubble? Or was that autocorrect?) was introduced already as a secondary currency and they're offering something like 10,000 rubles (which is around $160 USD, I guess) to the people living there.

Seems like a garbage consolation prize for having your home invaded and towns kidnapped.

9 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

If the situation solidifies into a stalemate, then all lands occupied from Kherson in the SW to Kharkiv in the NE will de facto become Russian territory.

Any estimates on the timeline for that? I keep seeing July as the supposed big month where a resolution will be met after intense moves this month.

Of course, my only source is American media which also says Puta has one foot in the grave and a coup has already started.

Idek what to believe anymore

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

1 minute ago, PartySick said:

 

I can't get over what that one man was quoted as saying. Imagine seeing Russian military tear up your country and leave behind bombs and maiming traps in abandoned conquests then saying "Yup! That's who I want to stand with!".

 

In this regard you kind of underestimate the power of propaganda. There are many Russians, and also people within Ukraine, believing Zelensky built secret bases of NATO, that the ''Jews and Americans'' are running the country behind the shadows, that the current government are nazis militias that only use civilians as ''shields''. This especially is the idea that they insist on a lot, they say Ukrainians soldiers are hiding next to chuches and maternities and Russia has no choice but to bomb them.  This is the rationalization for mass terror, and they are buying it.

6 minutes ago, PartySick said:

 

Yeah, I heard the ruble (rubble? Or was that autocorrect?) was introduced already as a secondary currency and they're offering something like 10,000 rubles (which is around $160 USD, I guess) to the people living there.

Any estimates on the timeline for that? I keep seeing July as the supposed big month where a resolution will be met after intense moves this month.

Of course, my only source is American media which also says Puta has one foot in the grave and a coup has already started.

My sense of when words need to have double letters is off sometimes.  Anyways, there aren't really any clear indications of when the war might end, though many experts say it's looking like it will drag on for months or even years. There is no end in sight per se, but both sides might get too exhausted to continue fighting and stop for a while and basically allow a stalemate. Which in of itself will be very uncertain and volatile.. Russia might take the whole of Donetsk oblast by advancing village by village by November  and then stop to renew their forces and attack again after a couple of years  (this is unfortunate but I simply do not believe Russia will give up completely on taking the big cities such as Odesa or Kharkiv, they will try to take them again as soon as they will have the capabilities to do that).

[PartySick 172,537]

21 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

In this regard you kind of underestimate the power of propaganda. There are many Russians, and also people within Ukraine, believing Zelensky built secret bases of NATO, that the ''Jews and Americans'' are running the country behind the shadows, that the current government are nazis militias that only use civilians as ''shields''. This especially is the idea that they insist on a lot, they say Ukrainians soldiers are hiding next to chuches and maternities and Russia has no choice but to bomb them.  This is the rationalization for mass terror, and they are buying it.

Led by...Jewish Nazis  I won't even try to understand the rationality there. I guess I just didn't know Russian propaganda had proliferated that thoroughly...

28 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

My sense of when words need to have double letters is off sometimes.  

You're good  I just wanted to make sure it wasn't like a Kiev/Kyiv situation where it's spelled differently.

29 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Anyways, there aren't really any clear indications of when the war might end, though many experts say it's looking like it will drag on for months or even years. There is no end in sight per se, but both sides might get too exhausted to continue fighting and stop for a while and basically allow a stalemate. Which in of itself will be very uncertain and volatile.. Russia might take the whole of Donetsk oblast by advancing village by village by November  and then stop to renew their forces and attack again after a couple of years  (this is unfortunate but I simply do not believe Russia will give up completely on taking the big cities such as Odesa or Kharkiv, they will try to take them again as soon as they will have the capabilities to do that).

Ugh

That's all I can say. I still don't see the point. I mean, I understand the motive, I just think it's a stupid one.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Update 4-5 June

Update 5-6 June

Update 6-7 June

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

On 6/5/2022 at 1:07 AM, PartySick said:

Led by...Jewish Nazis  I won't even try to understand the rationality there. I guess I just didn't know Russian propaganda had proliferated that thoroughly...

After WW2 the term ''Nazi'' developed a completely different meaning in URSS compared to the US and Western Europe.. To the Soviets the Nazis were the Western enemy who was encroaching them. The Nazis also collaborated to some extend with the Ukrainians that wanted a state for their own and some supported Operation Barbarossa. This is another layer why Putin says Ukrainians today are nazis, which is wrong but to them makes complete sense. 

[PartySick 172,537]

35 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

After WW2 the term ''Nazi'' developed a completely different meaning in URSS compared to the US and Western Europe.. To the Soviets the Nazis were the Western enemy who was encroaching them. The Nazis also collaborated to some extend with the Ukrainians that wanted a state for their own and some supported Operation Barbarossa. This is another layer why Putin says Ukrainians today are nazis, which is wrong but to them makes complete sense. 

Oh wow, I had no idea

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Update 7-8 June

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Update 8-9 June

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Update 9-10 June

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

@PartySickHow the size of occupied territory in Ukraine compares to Florida and southern US.. Idk if you'd find it big or small, but I think it's interesting how it puts it into perspective..

Before the retreat from Kyiv, Russia was occupying a territory greater in size than the UK..

[PartySick 172,537]

1 minute ago, FfFfFfFF said:

@PartySickHow the size of occupied territory in Ukraine compares to Florida and southern US.. Idk if you'd find it big or small, but I think it's interesting how it puts it into perspective..

Before the retreat from Kyiv, Russia was occupying a territory greater in size than the UK..

Geeeez....that's definitely a lot larger than I thought it was...

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

3 minutes ago, PartySick said:

Geeeez....that's definitely a lot larger than I thought it was...

Europe states are so small that I figured that from an American perspective it might look small. Not to say, the maximum territorial extend in March/April was a lot bigger.  Without taking any of the big cities, but still.

[PartySick 172,537]

2 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Europe states are so small that I figured that from an American perspective it might look small. Not to say, the maximum territorial extend in March/April was a lot bigger.  Without taking any of the big cities, but still.

Yeah, I thought it was just this fringe/outskirts area but seeing the territory stretch from Daytona to North Carolina definitely changes that