Putin invades Ukraine

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

As it was the case in previous days, Ukraine continues to regain ground. The Russians seem to want to establish administrative entities in captured areas (i.e: a so called Kherson People’s Republic to govern southern Ukraine, while Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic govern eastern Ukraine).

 

 1) After capturing 7 settlements yesterday, is possible that Ukrainians will continue their successful offensives in the area around Kyiv.

 

 

 

2) Ukraine exploited the fact that the Russians withdrew from parts of Kyiv and Chernihiv and regained a significant amount of ground (9 villages in Chernihiv). Ukrainians and Russian forces are fighting in Sumy. It seems that the Russians do not want to completely leave their captured areas, despite claims that they will only focus on eastern Ukraine. Even though Ukraine was successful over the last days, the claim that Ukraine liberated the whole of Sumy oblast is false.

 

 3) The Russians attempt to connect Kharkiv and Luhank Oblasts’s occupation areas around Izium.

 

 

 

4) The Russians didn’t score major advancements in Donbas or Mariupol. Ukraine claimed to have defended western Donbas from 5 Russian offensives, though Russian sources say separatist republics captured 1 settlement each. It remains unclear if sending troops that previously fought in other areas in Ukraine would allow Russia to score significant gains in Donbas.

 

5) In total, Ukraine recaptured 8 settlements in Kherson and Zaporizhia yesterday.

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At the start of the month, 2 Russian jets violated Sweden's airspace. It was now revealed they were carrying nuclear weapons.  

 

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Japan officially considers Kuril islands as Japanese territory under Russian occupation. https://twitter.com/CityAM/status/1509937399098494988

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Azerbaijan continues to advance militarily into Nagorno-Karabah. https://twitter.com/ScourgeOfTengri/status/1509960942917935108

 

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In the last 24 hours, the Ukrainians recaptured the biggest amount of territory since the war began (40 settlements).The Russians were in part pushed out, and in part withdrew on their own. This relates to the fact that according to the Institue for the Study of War, 1 April marks the day the Russians updated their objectives after the initial failure of their February and March campain. Instead of aiming to subdue the whole of Ukraine, the Russians refocused on eastern Ukraine (specifically Donbas). 

1) Ukraine gained a massive amout of territory in the north, around Kyiv and Chernihiv. This includes the heavily contested Ivankiv, Bucha and Hostomel (1, 2) - Kyiv suburbs that now that international fame. The strategically important Nova Basan is Chernihiv region is also, again, in Ukrainians' hands. This entire area is largely liberated from Russian presence, according to some, the Russians left Kyiv oblast completely.

 

2) An important advancement of Russia was the capture of Izium though. The city will most likely be used by the Russians as the middle point between their occupied territory in the south-east (in Luhanks) and in the east (around Kharkiv, city that they no longer want to encircle, but bypass). They will try to capture cities in the south-east of Izium so they can encircle Ukrainian forces there. Now despite becoming Russia's main focus, the Russians only made limited gains in eastern Ukraine. 

 

 

3) Surprisingly, Ukraine likely attacked Russia on its own territory, by bombing a petrol depo in Belgorod (Ukraine denies).

 

 

 

 

 

4) Mariupol is more and more likely to fall to the Russians. When Mariupol falls, the Russians would want to use their fighting power on northern Donetsk, to capture more of Donbas.

 

 

 

5) In the south, Ukraine recaptured two areas: in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The Russians try to establish a military administration in the territory that they captured so far all over southern Ukraine.

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There are sources saying Transnistria will get involved soon. However, Moldova denied any new military activity on its territory.

 

[LilyLark 10,213]

The photos coming out of Bucha, near Ukraine, are horrific. So many war crimes....I really suggest people don't look unless they are sure they can handle it.  The Russians soldiers are also not just committing mass rape, which is horrific enough, but mass rape against girls as young as 10.

Also, truly disgusted by how so many people on twitter (and it isn't just right wingers or tankies) are quasi apologists for Putin. Many won't outright state their support, but their whole feed is "what about x or y" or "Azov" or pictures of looters being mistreated. And it'd be one thing if they pointed that out, because yeah, the media/people in general is racist and has double standards, but that's the ONLY thing they seem to have on their twitter feed so it's incredibly suspect that it is all they focus on and not one sympathetic tweet or retweet about the Russians committing atrocities in Ukraine. A music journalist I used to follow is in that camp, as is a political person I used to follow.

 

[LilyLark 10,213]

On a slightly lighter note...look at this tapirs that have been rescued from a zoo.

 

 

 

[Chromatislaps 34,854]

On 4/1/2022 at 10:27 AM, FfFfFfFF said:

At the start of the month, 2 Russian jets violated Sweden's airspace. It was now revealed they were carrying nuclear weapons.  

 

If Russia does that again, is NATO allowed to eliminate those bombers in the air? Russia is playing with fire, one bomb on NATO soil, and NATO will bomb the ff out of military targets in Russia.

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2 hours ago, Chromatislaps said:

If Russia does that again, is NATO allowed to eliminate those bombers in the air? Russia is playing with fire, one bomb on NATO soil, and NATO will bomb the ff out of military targets in Russia.

If Russia flies nukes over a NATO country's airspace, in theory NATO is not only allowed intervene, but pretty much required (attacking a jet carrying a nuke would likely detonate it, so they will fight back in a different way though). At the moment, Sweden is not in NATO, so if Russia invades its airspace again, that won't trigger Article 5. Now if this happens to the Baltics, Poland, Romania or Turkey, the issue is on a whole other level.

*I say "in theory" because we had some escaladatory moments that went nowhere over the years (for instance, NATO-member Turkey destroyed a Russian jet that was flying over its territory in 2016, it lead nowhere because both sides fear the prospect of a nuclear war. In fact, WW3 is in a perpetual state of post-ponning since the 50s and nukes are the reason)

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In the last 24 hours, Ukraininians continued to gain ground in the areas the Russians withdrew from. After Russia's initial invasion plan(s) failed, the Russians will concentrate their forces in Donbas and in the south (Kherson, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia etc).

 

1. After reclaiming the massive amount of land in the north, Ukrainian forces seek to completely destroy the Russian elements left. 

 

 

2. The Rusians presence in northern Ukraine is still not completely gone (though is on its way out for sure), as there seems to be a corridor the Russians still operate, that goes from east Kyiv/ Chernihiv to Russia proper.

 

3. Nothing major happened in Kharkiv proper. After capturing Izium, the Russians paused their operations and it seems probable that they will attempt to move further south in part of the country & link up with troops from eastern Ukraine.

 

 

4. Ukrainians successfully defended western Donbas from a large-scalle offensive. The Russians want to capture the remaining unoccupied towns, and overall push the line of occupation at least to Luhansk and Donetsk’ boundaries.

 

5. The Russians continue to capture more of Mariupol.

 

 

6. Just like in the east, the Russians are said to fight to occupy the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk (claimed by the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic), in the south the Russians seek to capture the entirety of Kherson (which could be claimed by a hypothetical Kherson People’s Republic). 

 

7. There is talk about Transnistria joining Russia and Belarus into the war. However, both Tiraspol and Chișinău denied this will be the case. Transnistria is a de facto Russian protectorate and outpost of influence of Russia into Eastern Europe (not to say a tool of blackmail in the context of Moldova’s ascension to EU and NATO) They undoubtedly side with Putin, as they are his vassals and would enter the war according to his orders. However, the narrow geography of the region is a key factor that doesn’t allow them to be explicitely beligerent as they can easily be encircled and annihilated. Because of this, they won’t enter the war unless Russia launches a campaign on Odesa (which was actually part of the plan since day 1). According to ISW, the rumors of Transnistria getting involved might even be Russian propaganda, to make the Ukrainians deploy some of their forces there and loosen up the defence of other areas.

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[Magui 2,654]

@FfFfFfFF i don't even want to discuss what happened in Bucha... it's shock, a nightmare that people lived. I'm just stunned and horrified with the images i saw. 

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1 hour ago, Magui said:

@FfFfFfFF i don't even want to discuss what happened in Bucha... it's shock, a nightmare that people lived. I'm just stunned and horrified with the images i saw. 

Absolutely horrendous, haunting.  Exactly 81 years ago, on 1st April 1941, thousands of Romanians were killed by the Soviets at Fântâna Albă, after they had been lured in with the promise that they will be allowed to cross the border https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fântâna_Albă_massacre. A century later and the genodical tendencies, the imperialism and the willingness to massacre are still there. And some wonder why NATO is expading. 

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Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania already announced they'll stop gas imports from Russia.

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After a month of war, the northern front collapsed and Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy are now almost completely liberated. 

 1) Ukraine has won the battle for Kyiv, as for now Russians troops no longer threaten the city and are hundreds of km away. It needs to be stressed that Ukraine's victory in this instance doesn't necessarily mean it will come out on top all on all fronts, as the Russians still control significant amounts of territory in the east and south. Furthermore, Kyiv remains a city of strategic value to the Russians and there is a chance they might come back. But for now, Ukraine won the battle.

 

 

2) The Russians abandoned everything east and north of Kharkiv. They now attempt to expand in the south-east by capturing Severodonetsk and further moving towards Donbas.

 

 

 

3, a) Mariupol is still not completely occupied, but close to.

3, b) Ukrainian sources say the mayors of the towns in western Donbas are complicit with the Russians. However, it's unclear to what extend this is true, or at all. The Russians largely failed to expand westwards in Luhansk and Donetsk.

 

 

4) There is fighting in the south, but the frontlines remained largely the unchanged. Despite the fact that the Russians have not secured any land route toward Odesa, the threat on the city persists as the city was hit by the most significant attack since the war began.