Oscars Debate: is Gaga going to get in?

[LilyLark 10,104]

30 minutes ago, MelbHawker said:

If she earns a SAG nomination, I’d say yes to an Oscar nomination. 

This. SAG is the biggest indicator...granted, some still get nominated even without a SAG nom...and some get a SAG nom and miss the Oscars...but it's the major teller.

[RabbitHeart 795]

I think the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards are the first two major pre-cursors we can use to predict the Oscar noms. It's a bit difficult because the Globes' split ballots by genre and 2 major contenders (Haim, Zegler) are in the musical/comedy category. But last several years, the Globes' drama actress ballots have been almost identical with the Oscars', sans 1 nom typically being taken from the musical/comedy ballot.

That being said, based on the nominations we've been seeing, it does appear that Stewart, Colman, Chastain, and Gaga have good odds. I think the 5th spot for "dramas" has been inconsistent, with Kidman, Thompson, and Jones making strong showings. I'm crossing my fingers that this is the slot Haim takes over and no other musical/comedy contenders take Gaga's spot. I'm genuinely surprised at how strong Chastain is doing, considering her movie has been out so much longer than the others and didn't seem to have much buzz going into the awards.

[thehanyo 4,251]

I worry about Haim as a threat, only because how many musicians do these actors want to let in? lol

[Oyster 2,458]

I think she will get nominated bc her star power will get the oscars much higher ratings and they definitely need that. Idk about winning though

[Leoooo 2,284]

54 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

TBH I don't want to pit women against women but I do think it is interesting that Gaga acknowledges she grew up privileged and the reason she did scrap by for a while was because her Dad cut her off (and not because she was truly disadvantaged, etc.). Gaga isn't a rags to riches story at all, even if she did struggle at one point, and she's kind of aware of that.

There are multiple singers who sort of do the opposite....let's just say (and the song was clearly meant to be biographical, not fictional) I was cackling at a certain singer's lyrics about growing up with bills on the table while her lover grew up in glamorous, gated Beverly Hills. I like the song and said singer, but lol...her dad was a multi-millionaire and she grew up rich rich.

It really just depends on how you personally see it, I did say 'it is kind of rags to riches' Meaning there is definitely other levels, but she did go from very poor to rich, regardless of how or why she was or the fact she grew up wealthy, - I mean she was openly broke even after Bad Romance as she spent all her own money on the tour. Yeah she'd probably never describe her story as that, but wealth didnt get her were she is, and she had none when she got there

[Big Reputation 800]

She might get a nomination but I highly doubt she’ll win 

[LilyLark 10,104]

5 minutes ago, Reputation King said:

She might get a nomination but I highly doubt she’ll win 

I feel like that's what most people assume...that she has a 75-90% chance of getting nominated but her chance of winning is very, very low.

[tomsches 17,397]

She’s going to be nominated just to create more buzz and to get more viewers but I don’t think they are going to give her the award. 

[nswain1110 3,084]

Her strong box office appeal coupled with her commanding performance will secure her a nod for sure! It’ll be a tough race for a win though… I think the academy will favor Stewart. They love to reward actresses who’ve been in the game a while who then turn up career defining performances and Stewart did just that, while playing the most adored woman in modern history. The nod’s on lock but I don’t have any big expectations for a win. 

[azul 2,099]

8 hours ago, Oyster said:

I think she will get nominated bc her star power will get the oscars much higher ratings and they definitely need that. Idk about winning though

 

4 hours ago, tomsches said:

She’s going to be nominated just to create more buzz and to get more viewers but I don’t think they are going to give her the award. 

This argument is so toxic and disrespectful to Gaga's work. Like, she gave a once-in-a-lifetime kind of performance, and you guys think she will be nominated because of her name? That really upsets me tbh. We are not talking about the Grammys, this is the Oscars, they prefer to see #OscarsSoWhite trading on Twitter than nominating artists that the public thinks should be nominated. They don't give an f, they nominate who they think deserves it (for better and for worse, in the case of black people). 
That what I was talking about yesterday in here, you guys don't even believe in Gaga's talent. 

[MOT 3,065]

11 hours ago, KORG said:

Yes. She has a great chance of winning, too, since it was a more dynamic role than Diana.

Yes, agree with that. I haven't seen Spencer, and maybe Kristen did indeed produce the performabce of the year, but I suspect that playing Diana is basically shooting fish in a barrel for a good actor.

[QUEENH 711]

She completely deserves a nomination. Her personal reviews were fantastic and far better than Nicole Kidman's who is considered a lock. Her box office ate the other contenders and from a narrative pov she was the universal best in show in a movie stacked with some of the industries finest and experienced actors. She's shown that ASIB was not just a fluke. She's not relying on her voice to carry her. It's her second movie. She clearly worked her ass off. She's not going for easy roles and is testing herself. She's putting in the work to promote the movie. 

I Mean.. I could go on and on and granted I haven't seen all the other performances but imo she should be right up there as a lock with Kristen and Olivia. Penelope probably should also be a lock but she seems to have been non existent when it comes to campaigning up to this LA roundtable. The critics nearly completely overlooked her?

Has anyone seen Haim's movie? Is she actually good or is it that she's the shiny new toy/underdog this year like Gaga was in 2019? Oscars and critics do love an ingenue narrative. 

[QUEENH 711]

28 minutes ago, MOT said:

Yes, agree with that. I haven't seen Spencer, and maybe Kristen did indeed produce the performabce of the year, but I suspect that playing Diana is basically shooting fish in a barrel for a good actor.

Wrong. I saw it and she is indeed incredible. Playing Diana is actually incredibly hard because she is so known to us and evokes such strong feelings. Kristen had a much tougher job than Emma Corrin who was a blank slate. Kristen is very famous and has a very specific (perceived) persona that couldn't be more different to the very upper class, English Diana. She proved the doubters wrong and as somebody who generally cringes any time I see someone play Diana (they always overdo the doe eyes) I thought she was spectacular. I get that the movie itself might have been too "slow" or not The Crownish enough for some but I found it quite hypnotic. I'm sad that Pablo didn't get nominated because he really set up a claustrophobic, stifling atmosphere that sets the scene for Kristen's performance. I went with my sister in law and as it ended I was expecting her to roll her eyes and say she was bored but she actually loved it and we talked about it all the way home. Everyone seemed to enjoy it in my screening. I was really proud of Kristen and happy for her after the crap she's put up with over the years. I will personally be thrilled if she wins. 

[r4therupbeat 1,587]

14 hours ago, FameMonster01 said:

I'm sorry but Gaga is definitely in top 2, eventually top 3

She's 100% getting the nomination

Chances for an oscar would be somewhat of 50/50 as I see her going up against Kristen

Olivia already won the year before, so it's unlikely they'll be giving it to her again

have you checked the odds/predictions? she's not top 5 in the overall and if you check on the experts/editors lists she barely makes it top 5. Where you getting top 2 from?

[MOT 3,065]

26 minutes ago, QUEENH said:

Wrong. I saw it and she is indeed incredible. Playing Diana is actually incredibly hard because she is so known to us and evokes such strong feelings. Kristen had a much tougher job than Emma Corrin who was a blank slate. Kristen is very famous and has a very specific (perceived) persona that couldn't be more different to the very upper class, English Diana. She proved the doubters wrong and as somebody who generally cringes any time I see someone play Diana (they always overdo the doe eyes) I thought she was spectacular. I get that the movie itself might have been too "slow" or not The Crownish enough for some but I found it quite hypnotic. I'm sad that Pablo didn't get nominated because he really set up a claustrophobic, stifling atmosphere that sets the scene for Kristen's performance. I went with my sister in law and as it ended I was expecting her to roll her eyes and say she was bored but she actually loved it and we talked about it all the way home. Everyone seemed to enjoy it in my screening. I was really proud of Kristen and happy for her after the crap she's put up with over the years. I will personally be thrilled if she wins. 

That's a great post, all in all. Sounds like Kristen did a superb job. I hope Gaga wins, but you've converted me. I'll be rooting for Kristen too. 🙂