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Variety: Best Picture and Best Director Oscar predictions


Bradley

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36 minutes ago, Bradley said:

But how do we know if Gucci won't straddle between the commercial and the arthouse? People have said that it employs narration a la The Wolf of Wall Street and movies like this, like Vice, The Big Short which break the fourth wall have been acknowledged beyond their acting performances before.

How do we know if Ridley won't innovate his directing style this time round? Maybe he didn't experiment with new techniques but this time he just hits a chord and the film, though commercial in one way, turns out to be so effective everyone enjoys it? Why is this not likely at all for Ridley to get a Directing recognition?

If I may consider Joker as commercial, Todd Phillips did get a directing nom. Emerald Fennell's Promising Young Woman isn't exactly arthouse either, it's pretty straightforward and easy to enjoy for mainstream audiences, but she got a nom nonetheless.

It's just... an educated guess and prediction. Why are you getting so worked up over it? Both you and I have equal chances of being wrong. I don't think it's likely to get Ridley a Director nom... Is that a crime? 

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G U C C I

I have always been a lurker/avid reader on Gold Derby and other forums and based off everyone saying Dunst may go supporting I think it leaves an even bigger door open for Gaga's nomination. Honestly though considering that at the end of the day awards show season is entertainment and "showbiz" just like the movies and stars they are awarding, they are going to want to have a much showier and higher rated show than last years flop. Nominating Gaga for this role would help ensure that entertainment and fan value is present. I mean just look at the past shows she attended! I really think she is going to knock this out of the park and it will surprise a lot of people and more than earning her nomination even if this film isn't your typical Oscar bait movie. I see the nominations currently being:

Lady Gaga - House of Gucci

Kristen Stewart - Spencer

Jennifer Hudson - Respect

Frances McDormand - Tragedy of Macbeth

Jessica Chastain - Eye of Tammy Faye

With a possibility of one or more of these actresses taking a spot:

Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers 

Cate Blanchet - Nightmare Alley 

Halle Berry - Bruised 

Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog

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