Analysis shows as Centrist Dems move right, the more they lose

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

How can you make graphs and present them as evidence about voter trends when the vote count isn't even finished? It's a half truth that's how. 

[MACATL 2,167]

Biden won, as I predicted, by not being perceived as too far left.   So I don’t believe, based on this, that your theory necessarily applies to the presidential election.  Now state-level elections could be a different story.  

[caulixtla 2,170]

The way to do this correctly is:

* Look at all of the 435 congressional elections where there was a Democrat candidate for congress (yes, there are areas in the deep red south where you can not even vote for a Democrat at the US congress level, because none runs)

* Compare their results to the results for Trump in their congressional district. (this may be a bit of a challenge, because I believe a lot of places only show results by county for presidential, and results for congressman by gerrymandered district, but there are methodologies to give us a reasonable guesstimate)

* Determine the average and standard deviation of this statistical sample.

* Use curve fitting to make it a line. Determine standard deviation to see how much noise we have.

* Keep track of that line, because we will use it again. There’s a chance in places strongly opposing Trump, downballot races do even better for Democrats, and strongly supporting Trump, downballot races do even better for Republicans.

* Now, of those less-than-435 Democratic candidates, separate out the ones who explicitly supported Medicate for all, and those who said nothing or explicitly opposed it.

* See how well they do compared to the line we made seeing how things went without this variable.

It can be done; this is the sort of thing Nate Silver is good at. But, cherry picking 16 candidates, making “won/loss” a binary flag (the only binary flag we need is “supports”/“does not support or is silent” for Medicare for all), ignoring the races which are too close to call, and using outdated data to determine the red shift of a district is not going to give us data. It’s going to give us propaganda.

[JanStan 574]

20 hours ago, Gagaloo911 said:

I wonder what excuse centrists will claim now to ignore yet even more facts and data that show how wrong and a failure they are 

Here’s one. The presidency was won by a ‘centrist’. A Progressive couldn’t even win the primary.
 

The constant reaching to try to create a narrative that somehow a huge majority of people want far left ideas, but are either afraid of them, misunderstand them, etc etc etc is so old. Get over it. You don’t have to do mental gymnastics to figure it out. Votes are objective. Yes, people want aspects of a far left agenda, but until it evolves to a MORE central space those ideas will remain in small pockets of the country. 
 

Edit: if the rumblings of **** Cheney serving ANY position in the administration come true consider 2024 a wrap. 

[ALGAYDO 35,402]

3 hours ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

How can you make graphs and present them as evidence about voter trends when the vote count isn't even finished? It's a half truth that's how. 

How can you call Joe Biden the president-elect when the vote count isn’t even finished? It’s a half truth that’s how. 

[Pennywise 36,080]

Centrists be like:

 

[Pennywise 36,080]

Also: 

 

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

I'll have every single one of you centrist, establishment Democrat enablers (hilarious!!) know that we progressives weren't playing around when we said we'd suck it up and vote for Joe, and bring on the fight once and if he wins.

Now that that's been done, the fight is ON! It's already started as illustrated by AOC and the Squad, and we will bring the fight to the Democrats and we won't stop until we've bent the Democratic Party to our will or have taken the party over entirely.

We will be primarying every single establishment Democrat come 2022 who doesn't fight for working people and the progressive policies Americans overwhelmingly support.

And I cannot wait for the day when the WEAK, feckless establishment wing of the Democratic Party falls and is taken over with REAL leadership that actually has a fight in it and is strong.

Because us everyday people who see what Washington is all about are absolutely sick and tired of the weak, ineffective leadership from the Democrats as they are right now. That's going to change, and WE THE PEOPLE are going to change that even if we have to infiltrate it and take it down piece by piece, one establishment, moderate Democrat at a time.

I mean, we've already been doing it VERY SUCCESSFULLY with the Squad (which literally doubled on Election Day!) and Justice Democrats, and we will continue to primary and take down more. 

The current Democratic Party is GOING DOWN!

 

[Eighteen 5,430]

i'm on the far left and i HIGHLY doubt it. it just seems more plausible to me that districts where centrists lost, lost because the district pulled even further to the right this election cycle. like i read that a lot of cubans in florida do not like the word socialism, so seats were lost in miami. 

idk the democratic party has a difficult job to do balancing both sides, progressives and moderates. the democrats need both. i'm of the believe that the country is moving slowly more to the left, but you can't get anything done without moderates and the party needs to be able to AT LEAST hold on to both wings, if they can't expand their reach. 

like i know people like to believe a lot of the country is far left, but so far they don't vote that way a lot of the time. in hawaii, every far left candidate who runs a campaign similar to bernie sanders is continually shot down, and we are a deeply blue state. like our senators now, when they run in hawaii, they pretty much keep the far left talk quiet lol. 1 candidate who ran for congress in 2018 didn't, who was endorsed by bernie, etc. etc. and lost massively. so yeah (albeit he did have a campaign fincance issue?). idk, both wings need each other at the moment from my view is all i'm saying, and the party needs to learn how to achieve balance. i mean bernie couldn't win the primary--twice--idk what more evidence you need that the country isn't there yet lol.

(edit)

like what they should do is just let the primary candidates duke it out, and if a far left person wins, pour all party power into that position in that particular district for the general, and vice versa. 

(edit again)

but again i do believe the country is moving in a leftward direction. and i also believe the country is also moving in a far rightward direction, too. it's moving to both ends of the spectrum, leaving the middle quite vacant, which to me spells nothing will ever get done should the country truly end up evenly divided along those lines, but idk. maybe deep conservatives will eventually move leftward, weakening that faction. but for now, to me, they're only gaining steam (as is the far left). 

(edit ONE more time)

it also comes down to just having a really good candidate who's good at talking to the public. honestly, i think if whatever side you're on has that, then everything else criteria wise and strategy wise almost flies out the window and you can convince the people to get behind anything tbh. and so far to me the most talented politicians are coming up from the far left, because they don't play games. 

[Luc 4,776]

22 minutes ago, Gagaloo911 said:

I'll have every single one of you centrist, establishment Democrat enablers (hilarious!!) know that we progressives weren't playing around when we said we'd suck it up and vote for Joe, and bring on the fight once and if he wins.

Now that that's been done, the fight is ON! It's already started as illustrated by AOC and the Squad, and we will bring the fight to the Democrats and we won't stop until we've bent the Democratic Party to our will or have taken the party over entirely.

We will be primarying every single establishment Democrat come 2022 who doesn't fight for working people and the progressive policies Americans overwhelmingly support.

And I cannot wait for the day when the WEAK, feckless establishment wing of the Democratic Party falls and is taken over with REAL leadership that actually has a fight in it and is strong.

Because us everyday people who see what Washington is all about are absolutely sick and tired of the weak, ineffective leadership from the Democrats as they are right now. That's going to change, and WE THE PEOPLE are going to change that even if we have to infiltrate it and take it down piece by piece, one establishment, moderate Democrat at a time.

I mean, we've already been doing it VERY SUCCESSFULLY with the Squad (which literally doubled on Election Day!) and Justice Democrats, and we will continue to primary and take down more. 

The current Democratic Party is GOING DOWN!

Why repeat mistakes that are already made? Momentum, a British grass-roots youth movement, took over the UK Labour Party and got Jeremy Corbyn (basically a Bernie Sanders replica) as party leader in 2015. Then Jeremy Corbyn lost two elections against the conservatives which ran arguably the worst governments the UK has seen since the second world war. In the second election, Labour under Corbyn won only 32% of the vote in 2019 compared to 44% for the conservatives. Corbyn ran on popular policies like nationalizing railways and utilities, protecting the UK's single-payer healthcare system from the American healthcare industry in a trade deal with the US, and making broadband access free for all. He lost. 

Now Labour has a centre-left party leader again since April and suddenly Labour is polling higher than the Conservatives. Look at this

 

good luck with trying a far-left candidate, too bad ideological purity tests don't translate into votes.

(by the way, I'm not saying that any centre-left candidate can win from right-wing parties, you still need to be very charismatic, a good campaigner and to have a little bit of luck, but being centre-left certainly increases your chances over being further to the left)

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

Again, the current Democratic Party is going down. Either by progressives taking it over and saving the party, or because it will be outright decimated as more and more people run away from it due to its current, weak, ineffectual leadership that gets nothing done.

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

1 hour ago, ALGAYDO said:

How can you call Joe Biden the president-elect when the vote count isn’t even finished? It’s a half truth that’s how. 

Math.

A network calling an election is based on estimations. 

Yes Biden won, but you can't acturately compare Biden 2020 totals to Trump 2016 totals until the vote count is finished. 

One thing has nothing to do with the other. 

 

[caulixtla 2,170]

What I’m seeing here is most of us who want a better world (less income inequality, better more universal health care, continued gay rights, more work to not oppress Black people, us getting serious about climate change, etc.) but are looking at this like a chess game.

After playing 1. e4 e5 the radical left is like “WE NEED TO PLAY 2. QH5. WE CAN WIN THIS GAME IN FOUR MOVES”

The rest of us are like “Calm down. If we play 2. Qh5, we will weaken our position because they’re not going to fall for the four move checkmate. Let’s make 2. Nf3 instead and maybe go for the Evans Gambit if they’re weak enough.” 

“NO, WE NEED TO PLAY 2. QH5 RIGHT NOW, I ONCE PLAYED THAT AGAINST MY 8-YEAR-OLD BROTHER AND WON”

“The Republican party isn’t your 8-year old brother”

“YOU ARE A TRAITOR. WE NEED TO WIN THIS GAME RIGHT NOW”

“No, we’re just trying to make a move which will let us actually win the game”

“BUT 2. QH5 IS THE BEST MOVE. WE’LL WIN WITH IT”

“No, we won’t. Let’s just play 2. Nf3 and have a solid win”

And on and on like a broken record.

2. Qh5 isn’t going to win the game. 2. Nf3 is our best move with the position we’re in.

 

[HorusRa2 5,005]

The reality of the situation is that because the United States is a center-right country (by the governance) that it does not matter that most of the populace is center-left because the elected officials will not budge. Furthermore, the entire political structure with assistance from cable news ensures that anything center-left or true left is branded as unreasonable, impossible and as socialism. It has been engrained into americans for years and years that the government does not exist to help you; instead, the government exists to penalize you and to cater to special interests (lobbyists, corporations, politicians, billionaires, etc). The reason the republican party is so popular (to the extent that it is) is because of that fact a lot of americans would sooner see less government because they do not trust the government to do anything good for them. Democratic voters like to think that if you just get democrats into positions of power that the government will then start to do good things for its people. The problem is that the wrong democrats are in power and the ones that are will not implement policies that benefit everyday working people. 

Until enough people stop saying that the incrementalism that so many of the people in here are arguing for is not enough and that the government must do something differently, there will be no political change. When we see figures like Bernie and Trump come and get people involved looking for change, it is always the case that it's not enough because so many people do not participate in the political process and that within the populace that do, half of them will say half measures is all that's possible. So, spin it any way you want but unity within the democratic party is disproportionately beneficial to the moderates and centrists and disproportionately oppressive to progressives. 

Fact is that the moderates can no longer expect progressives to vote for them because they don't do enough for them and honestly, it's an insult to progressivism that the moderates say that they do deliver progressive policies to us. They don't. 

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

It's truly incredible the outright disdain many of you in this thread and on GGD have for working class people in this country who are sick and tired of Washington politics and who keep rejecting the kinds of candidates and beliefs y'all keep pushing.

Instead of acknowledging that and changing accordingly you just dig further down into your failure of an ideology and strategy 

I, along with a majority of Americans, say HELL NO to that and