Charts Discussion - 5 weeks until Chromatica

[FRANZGA 13,920]

STUPID LOVE anime version is such a concept..

[Artur 12,419]

11 minutes ago, messybottom said:

There’s a big difference between stating an opinion/expressing concern and just being unnecessarily negative. Especially out of no where. It’s also important to ask questions. If you don’t understand charts, how they work, or what they mean, ask someone in here. They’d be happy to educate you. But coming in here and assuming things and spreading negativity is just so unnecessary. 

Some of the drags are a bit too much sometimes, no? 

[Doncho 27,241]

Monday will be a day to remember  Gaga finally getting another Top 5/3 hit 

[TWICE on hatius 4,746]

7 minutes ago, Ally Campana said:

There really needs to be a separate thread where all the supposed ‘realists’ and ‘not focusing only on the positive’ can bump their titties and asses and have their hoohas together. After spending almost all day on this thread tracking numbers, doing what we have to do to promote it on radio through Twitter or RateTheMusic, waiting for daily updates, etc. it all just gets a little too annoying. 

OT: Stream Stupid Love.

 

The irony is that they’re even realistic themselves. It’s just annoying ignorance at this point. They are pushing ARTPOP flop agenda again, and I refuse to be fooled again. SL is doing well and gonna debut top 5 tmr and slowly climbs again

[dit 45,879]

I knew the song would not be a mega smash the minute I heard it and then the MV sort of sealed the deal for me BUT that does not mean it is a flop or even underperforming. It is still a big HIT! I just am not sure it will be the mega smash many were hoping it would be. I mean we need to remember it leaked a month before official release and at the end of the day is still going to debut high and is having nice radio support! If the sales and streams are dwindling it is ok and at the end of the day Stupid Larva will STILL be one of her biggest hits from the second half of her career to now. And then we always have the album to look forward to and other singles too! 

Stupid Larva is doing good and Gaga is doing really good for an artist 12 years into her career and soon approaching her mid 30s .

[messybottom 10,579]

I’d much rather have Stupid Love end up being #1 on POP & HAC radio with 120-140M AI while sitting at #25 Global & US Spotify than it be #5 Spotify Global & US with only like 20-25M AI on radio. 
 

Keep in mind with HAC radio longevity comes more spins on AC radio which helps the song stay relevant even longer (usually 4-8 months after it dies on HAC).

[messybottom 10,579]

4 minutes ago, Artur said:

Some of the drags are a bit too much sometimes, no? 

I won’t lie, yes. you are right about that. 

[Artur 12,419]

2 minutes ago, messybottom said:

I won’t lie, yes. you are right about that. 

We better be prepared for tomorrow's meltdowns when the Spotify streams for Sunday are released.

[FRANZGA 13,920]

2 minutes ago, messybottom said:

I’d much rather have Stupid Love end up being #1 on POP & HAC radio with 120-140M AI while sitting at #25 Global & US Spotify than it be #5 Spotify Global & US with only like 20-25M AI on radio. 
 

Keep in mind with HAC radio longevity comes more spins on AC radio which helps the song stay relevant even longer (usually 4-8 months after it dies on HAC).

that's basically SHALLOW before OSCARS 

STUPID LOVE sounds like a SMASH in RADIO.. it'll be her first 100M+ song in radio since APPLAUSE.. i am planting the seed 

[Brie Candy 18,641]

3 hours ago, Arturo said:

If anyone wants my full unbiased analysis of how Stupid Love is doing / how I think it will do here it is metric by metric.

Sales: Like my good friend @Klou pointed out earlier, Stupid Love is holding on well on iTunes for how little airplay it has in the US. There are countless examples of songs, even leads by big artists, that didn't hold up this well on iTunes with similar airplay numbers. More recently, Heartless by The Weeknd, was not holding up as well with ~30m audience 9-10 days after release:
https://kworb.net/pop/archive/20191206.html

Now before you say oh well he doesn't do well on iTunes he does better on streaming, that makes no sense. He's a pop star whose songs have sold well digitally and whose current single single Blinding Lights has been much more receptive to little airplay during the beginning of its run and is now holding its own with its big airplay gains (~was steady in the Top 10 until SNL boosted it way up).

Conclusion: Stupid Love could be and should be doing a lot worse in digital sales. It's current performance is exceeding expectations

Airplay: There's no other way to define Stupid Love's US airplay reception as anything other than phenomenal. She's going from #28 to most likely #20 tomorrow on Nielsen's Mainstream Top 40 chart. Mind you it took like 5-6 months for Shallow to even reach #19. And stations that refused to playlist it quickly added Stupid Love and are continuing to play it. HAC is on top of it even though it usually takes HAC longer to jump on non-P!nk pop songs like DSN, Circles, etc but they're clearly loving it. 

Conclusion: I don't want to jinx it...but I don't see how this is not her first Top 10 on Pop radio since DWUW and yet another solid Top 5 hit for her on HAC after Shallow and Million Reasons


Streams: I say this completely seriously but I don't think SL's performance on Spotify or even AM is anywhere close to flopping. Could she be doing better? Absolutely. But she's had to survive multiple album bombs (Lil Baby, G Herbo, Bad Bunny, Lil Uzi, Jhene Aiko and it's only been 9 days.) The positions are worrying at first glance but I don't think the actual streams she's pulling are horrible. They're average or maybe a bit under expectations at worst.

Conclusion: Give streaming some time. DSN also had many hills and valleys until it was consistently pushing 16-17m weekly US streams which is a good place for SL to get to once radio picks up more.

Basically, everything I've seen so far is good. Stop worrying.

Accurate af 

[messybottom 10,579]

3 minutes ago, Artur said:

We better be prepared for tomorrow's meltdowns when the Spotify streams for Sunday are released.

it will be the lowest numbers yet but I’m confident Monday will be a lot better. Monday’s are always increases and most of those album bombs should slowly be receding.

[luckythisway 2,602]

Stupid Love really seems to be mending her rather horrible relationship with US radio, so its a huge success in my eyes from just that reason alone

[messybottom 10,579]

Just now, luckythisway said:

Stupid Love really seems to be mending her rather horrible relationship with US radio, so its a huge success in my eyes from just that reason alone

Exactly this. Spotify was her last resort with radio ignoring her the past few years but with radio on her side again, I don’t even care about Spotify as much. That will come naturally with the radio increases.

[TWICE on hatius 4,746]

Gaga listens to Candy Candy omg. I hope there’s some bubblegum bops like this on chromatica. The way everything in this era suits my aesthetics because it’s mainly jpop influenced.

 

[BrickMonster 2,798]

why do people make it seem like there’s only two options for a Gaga song: a smash or a flop. SL isn’t an instant smash but it’s doing okay with a lot of potential to grow over time. Moderate hits can exist, and some, if they’re lucky, potentially explode.