Charts Discussion - 5 weeks until Chromatica

[LaLa 19,208]

30 minutes ago, OBEY said:

after asking this question for the 3rd time maybe I'll get an answer someday 

okay, I just did a customer service chat with Amazon Canada 

They said they don't sell digital music "yet". Which... makes no sense to me because I remember buying songs (mp3s) from them before? But maybe it used to be easier for us to buy from the US site and this is what I'm remembering? Either way, it's not possible at the moment. 

But the agent did tell me all about Prime Music 

[Arturo 40,746]

1 minute ago, ConnorFilm said:

Could SL be a slowburn that eventually reaches anotjet week in the top 10 by album release week? Very possible. And regardless. I also believe it will be her first pop radio top 10 since the ARTPOP days. 

If by slowburner you mean reaching the top 10 organically 1 month+ after release then that isn't even a slowburner. That's just a normal song chart run. Of course we're skewed in what we expect because she's a big pop star and her first week, largely boosted by her massive fanbase is gonna be in the Top 3 of BB and then it's going to fall but it's not like it's going to fall into a horrible place. DSN debuted at #30. So it'd be like starting an organic run.

[theahsfan 13,781]

What do you guys think the  2nd week drop will be?

[BuzzcutSeason 3,307]

We're going to linger with decent sales and streams until radio picks us up. I guarantee we'll have a multi-week top twenty (likely multi-week top ten with album promo in six weeks).

[Nicoxxx 1,467]

2 minutes ago, theahsfan said:

What do you guys think the  2nd week drop will be?

-30

[Swallow 12,052]

3 minutes ago, Arturo said:

Conclusion: Stupid Love could be and should be doing a lot worse in digital sales. It's current performance is exceeding expectations
 

#6 on iTunes after 9 days for Gaga's lead single is "exceeding expectations"?   It's selling, what, 1.5k daily?

I was really hoping it would sell 20k this week, but looks like it will do around 55% of that, so it's for sure below MY expectations.

[Arturo 40,746]

1 minute ago, Swallow said:

#6 on iTunes after 9 days for Gaga's lead single is "exceeding expectations"?   It's selling, what, 1.5k daily?

I was really hoping it would sell 20k this week, but looks like it will do around 55% of that, so it's for sure below MY expectations.

Yes. Your expectation was not rooted in reality.

[OBEY 57,109]

1 minute ago, Arturo said:

Yes. Your expectation was not rooted in reality.

 drag it

[Swallow 12,052]

Just now, Arturo said:

Yes. Your expectation was not rooted in reality.

Sure, but since it's about to sell like 12k this week, you can't possibly tell me you were expecting it to sell 8k the 2nd week and it's now exceeding your expectations?

 

[Thrasher 22,980]

Stupid Love will surely reach Top 10 again (and guess stabilize) on Chromatica release week (if not earlier). That's if radio won't kill it due to poor streaming (I hope not) or due to major support to the potential Ariana collab (possible scenario). 

Expecting Gaga to smash instantly is not healthy. She has done it ONCE in her career (Born This Way) and we largely know the hype that was driving her back then (and she was also a juggernaut in every metric, a thing that can't be said nowadays for streaming for example, but still doing good for her standards).

[Swallow 12,052]

2 minutes ago, OBEY said:

 drag it

Obsessed Swallow Haters at it again?  

 

Anyways, I'm only focusing on radio in the next 2 weeks, so let me stop commenting streaming and sales  

[KatieJudasGaga4 67,907]

3 minutes ago, Thrasher said:

Stupid Love will surely reach Top 10 again (and guess stabilize) on Chromatica release week (if not earlier). That's if radio won't kill it due to poor streaming (I hope not) or due to major support to the potential Ariana collab (possible scenario). 

Expecting Gaga to smash instantly is not healthy. She has done it ONCE in her career (Born This Way) and we largely know the hype that was driving her back then (and she was also a juggernaut in every metric, a thing that can't be said nowadays for streaming for example, but still doing good for her standards).

Didn't Bad Romance kinda smash instantly too. I know it fell in the US second week, but kept increasing the weeks after 

[Swallow 12,052]

Just now, KatieJudasGaga4 said:

Didn't Bad Romance kinda smash instantly too. I know it fell in the US second week, but kept increasing the weeks after 

Not really, it debuted at #9 and then exploded a month later.

[emig09 24,701]

BB 200 just released

[Genuine Guy 09 13,941]

20 minutes ago, Arturo said:

If anyone wants my full unbiased analysis of how Stupid Love is doing / how I think it will do here it is metric by metric.

Sales: Like my good friend @Klou pointed out earlier, Stupid Love is holding on well on iTunes for how little airplay it has in the US. There are countless examples of songs, even leads by big artists, that didn't hold up this well on iTunes with similar airplay numbers. More recently, Heartless by The Weeknd, was not holding up as well with ~30m audience 9-10 days after release:
https://kworb.net/pop/archive/20191206.html

Now before you say oh well he doesn't do well on iTunes he does better on streaming, that makes no sense. He's a pop star whose songs have sold well digitally and whose current single single Blinding Lights has been much more receptive to little airplay during the beginning of its run and is now holding its own with its big airplay gains (~was steady in the Top 10 until SNL boosted it way up).

Conclusion: Stupid Love could be and should be doing a lot worse in digital sales. It's current performance is exceeding expectations

Airplay: There's no other way to define Stupid Love's US airplay reception as anything other than phenomenal. She's going from #28 to most likely #20 tomorrow on Nielsen's Mainstream Top 40 chart. Mind you it took like 5-6 months for Shallow to even reach #19. And stations that refused to playlist it quickly added Stupid Love and are continuing to play it. HAC is on top of it even though it usually takes HAC longer to jump on non-P!nk pop songs like DSN, Circles, etc but they're clearly loving it. 

Conclusion: I don't want to jinx it...but I don't see how this is not her first Top 10 on Pop radio since DWUW and yet another solid Top 5 hit for her on HAC after Shallow and Million Reasons


Streams: I say this completely seriously but I don't think SL's performance on Spotify or even AM is anywhere close to flopping. Could she be doing better? Absolutely. But she's had to survive multiple album bombs (Lil Baby, G Herbo, Bad Bunny, Lil Uzi, Jhene Aiko and it's only been 9 days.) The positions are worrying at first glance but I don't think the actual streams she's pulling are horrible. They're average or maybe a bit under expectations at worst.

Conclusion: Give streaming some time. DSN also had many hills and valleys until it was consistently pushing 16-17m weekly US streams which is a good place for SL to get to once radio picks up more.

Basically, everything I've seen so far is good. Stop worrying.

Anxiety: La Cancelled 

Thank you