Charts Discussion - 5 weeks until Chromatica

[OBEY 57,109]

19 minutes ago, DennisConcert said:

Yes! I'm from Germany and i was able to buy SL

Could you please tell me how you can buy it? Do you just go on amazon Germany and type stupid love Lady Gaga on the search bar ? do you go into a specific section? thanks !

[Bloody 64,631]

7 minutes ago, LGMonster95 said:

6th Spin on KIIS FM / 4:24 PM

4th Spin on Z100 / 7:09 PM

 

I'm f*cking shooked 

who would have thought that KIIS would spin it more times than Z100

a dream!

[OnionGirl 6,089]

God bless Erica 

[MANiCURE1295 8,673]

34,603,106

+90K in 1 hour...KEEP STREAMING

 

[Stef 61,566]

1 minute ago, Bloody said:

who would have thought that KIIS would spin it more times than Z100

a dream!

She’s an LA hunty now  

[messybottom 10,579]

5 minutes ago, Stef said:

Total views: 33,903,257 
Expected to hit 100,000,000 on: 2020/04/02 

This seems too good to be true tbh and with radio starting to play it more I can see it hitting that a few days earlier

[spanishmonster 11,002]

I love Erica, she always spins Gaga 💕

 

[LGMonster95 13,704]

2 minutes ago, Bloody said:

who would have thought that KIIS would spin it more times than Z100

a dream!

I remember the days when they used to ignore her A LOT. They really must have LOVED this song to play it like this.

[ConnorFilm 7,091]

1 hour ago, Matt B said:

Omg 

I would hope it would do at least 14k in sales. That’s 2k a day for the next tracking week. 

[Arturo 40,746]

If anyone wants my full unbiased analysis of how Stupid Love is doing / how I think it will do here it is metric by metric.

Sales: Like my good friend @Klou pointed out earlier, Stupid Love is holding on well on iTunes for how little airplay it has in the US. There are countless examples of songs, even leads by big artists, that didn't hold up this well on iTunes with similar airplay numbers. More recently, Heartless by The Weeknd, was not holding up as well with ~30m audience 9-10 days after release:
https://kworb.net/pop/archive/20191206.html

Now before you say oh well he doesn't do well on iTunes he does better on streaming, that makes no sense. He's a pop star whose songs have sold well digitally and whose current single single Blinding Lights has been much more receptive to little airplay during the beginning of its run and is now holding its own with its big airplay gains (~was steady in the Top 10 until SNL boosted it way up).

Conclusion: Stupid Love could be and should be doing a lot worse in digital sales. It's current performance is exceeding expectations

Airplay: There's no other way to define Stupid Love's US airplay reception as anything other than phenomenal. She's going from #28 to most likely #20 tomorrow on Nielsen's Mainstream Top 40 chart. Mind you it took like 5-6 months for Shallow to even reach #19. And stations that refused to playlist it quickly added Stupid Love and are continuing to play it. HAC is on top of it even though it usually takes HAC longer to jump on non-P!nk pop songs like DSN, Circles, etc but they're clearly loving it. 

Conclusion: I don't want to jinx it...but I don't see how this is not her first Top 10 on Pop radio since DWUW and yet another solid Top 5 hit for her on HAC after Shallow and Million Reasons


Streams: I say this completely seriously but I don't think SL's performance on Spotify or even AM is anywhere close to flopping. Could she be doing better? Absolutely. But she's had to survive multiple album bombs (Lil Baby, G Herbo, Bad Bunny, Lil Uzi, Jhene Aiko and it's only been 9 days.) The positions are worrying at first glance but I don't think the actual streams she's pulling are horrible. They're average or maybe a bit under expectations at worst.

Conclusion: Give streaming some time. DSN also had many hills and valleys until it was consistently pushing 16-17m weekly US streams which is a good place for SL to get to once radio picks up more.

Basically, everything I've seen so far is good. Stop worrying.

[Swallow 12,052]

10 minutes ago, LGMonster95 said:

6th Spin on KIIS FM / 4:24 PM

4th Spin on Z100 / 7:09 PM

 

I'm f*cking shooked 

and it was just played on B96!

Z100 :  4  (+1)
KIIS-FM :  6  (+1)
B96 :  5  (+1)

[Fame Romance 10,517]

Billboard still hasn’t uploaded their BB200 article 

Watch them do the same thing tomorrow 

[clownery 4,228]

3 minutes ago, ConnorFilm said:

I would hope it would do at least 14k in sales. That’s 2k a day for the next tracking week. 

 

[ConnorFilm 7,091]

3 minutes ago, Arturo said:

If anyone wants my full unbiased analysis of how Stupid Love is doing / how I think it will do here it is metric by metric.

Sales: Like my good friend @Klou pointed out earlier, Stupid Love is holding on well on iTunes for how little airplay it has in the US. There are countless examples of songs, even leads by big artists, that didn't hold up this well on iTunes with similar airplay numbers. More recently, Heartless by The Weeknd, was not holding up as well with ~30m audience 9-10 days after release:
https://kworb.net/pop/archive/20191206.html

Now before you say oh well he doesn't do well on iTunes he does better on streaming, that makes no sense. He's a pop star whose songs have sold well digitally and whose current single single Blinding Lights has been much more receptive to little airplay during the beginning of its run and is now holding its own with its big airplay gains (~was steady in the Top 10 until SNL boosted it way up).

Conclusion: Stupid Love could be and should be doing a lot worse in digital sales. It's current performance is exceeding expectations

Airplay: There's no other way to define Stupid Love's US airplay reception as anything other than phenomenal. She's going from #28 to most likely #20 tomorrow on Nielsen's Mainstream Top 40 chart. Mind you it took like 5-6 months for Shallow to even reach #19. And stations that refused to playlist it quickly added Stupid Love and are continuing to play it. HAC is on top of it even though it usually takes HAC longer to jump on non-P!nk pop songs like DSN, Circles, etc but they're clearly loving it. 

Conclusion: I don't want to jinx it...but I don't see how this is not her first Top 10 on Pop radio since DWUW and yet another solid Top 5 hit for her on HAC after Shallow and Million Reasons


Streams: I say this completely seriously but I don't think SL's performance on Spotify or even AM is anywhere close to flopping. Could she be doing better? Absolutely. But she's had to survive multiple album bombs (Lil Baby, G Herbo, Bad Bunny, Lil Uzi, Jhene Aiko and it's only been 9 days.) The positions are worrying at first glance but I don't think the actual streams she's pulling are horrible. They're average or maybe a bit under expectations at worst.

Conclusion: Give streaming some time. DSN also had many hills and valleys until it was consistently pushing 16-17m weekly US streams which is a good place for SL to get to once radio picks up more.

Basically, everything I've seen so far is good. Stop worrying.

Could SL be a slowburn that eventually reaches another week in the top 10 by album release week? Very possible. And regardless. I also believe it will be her first pop radio top 10 since the ARTPOP days. 

[OnionGirl 6,089]

Thank you, king @Arturo

And to think we still possibly have an Ariana collab to track 

I’m more than happy with SL’s numbers so far. Only a warm up to the real smash of the era