538 now predicting that Sanders has the best odds of winning most delegates

[POP2 4,206]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/district-of-columbia/

These are only projections but it has drastically changed after the Iowa caucus. Sanders now has a 37% chance of winning the democratic primary. Followed by "No Winner" with 27% and Biden with just over a 20% chance. 

Iowa is significant because Biden got FOURTH PLACE - which is really bad for someone who was supposedly the frontrunner. Sure, Sanders will most likely lose Iowa but the winner (Buttigieg) is polling extremely low nationally. 

With a Buttigieg win in Iowa, he is surely going to stay in the race for awhile which will ultimately lower Biden's delegate count. 

[Married the Night 3,955]

Bummer 

[derpmonster 22,412]

Yup, especially since we've got California which has over 500 delegates alone. Biden's small edge in SC won't be enough and we'll likely win NH with a margin. Then on Super Tuesday, California will likely decide the election. And we're currently leading in California.

Hopefully Warren drops out before Super Tuesday. Then about half of her voters will flock to Sanders.

[derpmonster 22,412]

Reminder that this us about pledged delegates aka normal delegates. If someone wins a majority of normal delegates, superdelegates DON'T get to vote. And we win.

If there is a leader but doesn't have more than 50% of pledged delegates, then superdelegates vote. And currently that's the second likeliest option.

[POP2 4,206]

1 minute ago, derpmonster said:

Reminder that this us about pledged delegates aka normal delegates. If someone wins a majority of normal delegates, superdelegates DON'T get to vote. And we win.

If there is a leader but doesn't have more than 50% of pledged delegates, then superdelegates vote. And currently that's the second likeliest option.

This is a very good point. With this result, the odds of Sanders winning are somewhat low. 

[malazam 15,710]

Get your red coats and get in winners

We Making America Gaga Again, my Little Bernies

 

 

[derpmonster 22,412]

5 minutes ago, POP2 said:

This is a very good point. With this result, the odds of Sanders winning are somewhat low. 

Well let's hope for a Bernie majority. If there's not a majority but a Bernie plurality (lead), the DNC will shoot itself in the foot if it decides to override the public's choice using their superdelegates. They better not.

[malazam 15,710]

4 minutes ago, derpmonster said:

Well let's hope for a Bernie majority. If there's not a majority but a Bernie plurality (lead), the DNC will shoot itself in the foot if it decides to override the public's choice using their superdelegates. They better not.

Wait..

Is this real?:I mean I get the electoral college but the superdelegates can simply ignore the popular vote?

[Morphine Prince 109,729]

I certainly hope so.

Please get out and VOTE. 

[FATCAT 60,896]

18 minutes ago, derpmonster said:

Well let's hope for a Bernie majority. If there's not a majority but a Bernie plurality (lead), the DNC will shoot itself in the foot if it decides to override the public's choice using their superdelegates. They better not.

I might be wrong but I believe they scrapped that process

[POP2 4,206]

3 minutes ago, FATCAT said:

I might be wrong but I believe they scrapped that process

https://www.npr.org/2018/06/27/623913044/dnc-officials-vote-to-scale-back-role-of-superdelegates-in-presidential-nominati

You're sorta correct. They reduced their power quite a bit.

[Brainiac 11,171]

1 minute ago, FATCAT said:

I might be wrong but I believe they scrapped that process

You're incorrect. Superdelegates don't vote on the first measure. But if no one has a majority of pledged delegates after the first vote, then the superdelegates can vote for whoever they want.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

14 minutes ago, malazam said:

Wait..

Is this real?:I mean I get the electoral college but the superdelegates can simply ignore the popular vote?

Uh yes. They are independent actors who have no obligation to vote in any way, but they actually don't have enough votes for example to take someone who had 100 delegates and make them the winner from what I understand. (You need 1990 total to win)

In 2016, Hillary was called as the winner of the primary before the primary was over because superdelegates were openly pledging to vote for her, which rendered much of the latter half of the primary a formality. This is obviously undemocratic, hence the reforms  

2 minutes ago, FATCAT said:

I might be wrong but I believe they scrapped that process

You are partially. It is now on the second ballot after Sanders appointed 8 people to a Unity Reform Commission in 2017 to give recommendations to increase the fairness and transparency of the Primary process for the DNC. Now, after a highly contested vote that apparently several members regret passing  Superdelegates do not get to vote until after the convention and if someone gets 1990 delegates, they win outright and there is nothing they can do.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

I ranted about this in another thread, but while Bernie does have a chance of getting to 1990 delegates by beating other candidates, his best chance is actually if Warren were to drop out and endorse him.

I mean no salt to Warren supporters, but if you support Warren because you want a wealth tax, free universal childcare, a universal healthcare system ultimately, a green new deal, executive enforcement of anti-trust regulations, and many other issues... Sanders is the only chance of that at this point  The longer she stays in the race, the more likely it is that Joe Biden (or Bloomberg, god forbid if they get behind him) wins the nomination, and those ideas are all right out the window.

 Pete Buttigieg still has an incredibly slim chance of winning - even less than Warren atm.

[sethrb101 4,523]

1 hour ago, derpmonster said:

Yup, especially since we've got California which has over 500 delegates alone. Biden's small edge in SC won't be enough and we'll likely win NH with a margin. Then on Super Tuesday, California will likely decide the election. And we're currently leading in California.

Hopefully Warren drops out before Super Tuesday. Then about half of her voters will flock to Sanders.

Right now she seems too selfish to do so. She's standing in the way. But agreed.