Paprarazzi / EOG / Other Chart Run "What Ifs"

[JustJames 1,021]

So, I have been wondering for a while how much damage certain factors had on the success of some of Gaga's singles throughout her career. With each decision that made me go "hmm?," I shrugged it off assuming that 1 blip on the radar of a future legend wouldn't do much harm. Now with hindsight, I have to think that the residual hangovers did have some tangible impact on her career trajectory, but would love to know if anyone has more detail on some of these incidents/moments.

Thanks!

1. Paparazzi

1. 'Paparazzi,' despite its noted place in her canon, was her lowest charting single to-date at #6 and would remain as such until 'Judas' (more on that to come later). Does anyoe have data -- sales/downloads trajectories or other predictive data to make a solid claim that 'Paparazzi' was indeed still on the rise when 'Bad Romance' was dropped? Where do we think its peak would have hit? 

2. If it can't be quantified, is it consensus that it would have at at the very least gained more 'weight' as one of her biggest hits with more exposure?

3.  Would BR dropping later cause a ripple effect that would cancel out any positives of letting 'Paparazzi' climb? For me, if 'Paparazzi' had gotten to #4 -- above her previous single, 'LoveGame' -- that would have made delaying BR worth it. An upswing at that stage of an era/exposure is a sign that new music is definitely not needed, and knowing the overexposure that would come from her going nonstop from TF > TFM > BTW, milking TF with 'Paparazzi' into the fall, followed by a true re-release of the album + a final single (one of her unreleased songs like 'Freakshow' or maybe a collab remix of an 'almost-there' track like 'The Fame,' or even 'Telephone') looks like a great option to me.

4. Could 'Paparazzi' been submitted for "Best Pop Female Vocal Performane" for the 2009-2010 Grammys ('Pokerface' having been submitted, nominated, and ultimately winning 'Best Dance Recording')? 

5. Could/was 'Paparazzi' submitted for "Best Music Video" for the 2009-2010 Grammys?

Bad Romance / Alejandro / Dance in the Dark 

1. Were there any major blunders that were avoidable that prevented BR from charting #1? Or, was it simply bad luck with 'Empire State of Mind' and 'TikTok' co*k-blocking it?

2. Do you side with Gaga or Interscope on the 'Alejandro' vs. 'DITD' 3rd single battle? 'DITD' was my favorite immediately upon hearing TFM, and can't fathom why it a) wasn't a favorite of Gaga's or b) why it wouldn't be released as at least as a 4th single. 'Alejandro' peaked at #5 and was a sharp decline, brining negative publicity for its MV and ending her peak era on a sour note. 

3. What are the pros of releasing a song as a single in limited markets? If 'DITD' was released in some territories, why not just send it over to U.S. radio and record a MV and see how it does? Similar to ASIB ending at 'Shallow,' TFM was clearly important to Gaga and releasing only 3 singles - despite their rollouts and visuals, etc., being flawless IMO - seems like a miss. 

4. What type of success do you think 'DITD' might have achieved in terms of the charts? Would it have improved upon 'Alejandro' or dipped further? Would a full single release and MV have given Gaga an edge for "AOTY" and "Best Dance Recording" at the 2010-2011 Grammys?

MTN / Judas / EOG

1. Are there sources for the established rumor that MTN was meant to the lead for the BTW era? Everything about its lyrics (re: her being dropped from her label etc), to its sound (does that sound like a *5th* single to you?), to it being the lead track lead me to believe that Gaga had every intention of it being the first single. 

2. Would you agre that MTN (or the majority of BTW tracks) would have likely debuted #1 based on hype/momentum alone? I wish so much it had, since the song is A+ and its MV deserved more than a rush winter release. I think MTN (#1) > BTW (#1) > EOG (#1) > You and I (#3) > Scheisse (edited; #6) > Heavy Metal Lover (#6) could be realistic; thoughts?

3. Has anyone done any kind of math to determine how 'Judas' would have done combining its first-week (3 days) with its second? #10 is super impressive for 3 days of tracking; but, what a terrible move given the negative spin it received despite that achievement.

4. Has anyone done any kind of math to determine how 'Edge of Glory' would have done if you add average numbers to its digital sales debut? The fact it debuted at #3 as a promo against 'Hair' without a MV or full radio release is incredible; this song deserves a place in the top 3 of her canon, and was a worthy successor to 'BTW' as her 4th #1. 

5. What was the official rationale for the promo releasing of EOG? What are some logical explanations for that type of move? I can't fathom how it could end with the song performing to its full potential, but maybe I am missing something. 

[weed 74,262]

Paparazzi was still #6 on the chart when Bad Romance debuted at #9 in November 2009. Probably would have been promoted more thoroughly had they not had BR planned. After that week Paparazzi continually declined while BR hit it's #2 peak 2 weeks later. I agree Paparazzi had more potential

TEOG I think they knew it would be huge hence the elaborate Kahn video with a mermaid, etc. but ended up being scrapped for the one we have, which imo could have hindered it's success given how huge MVs were back then.

[FfFfFfFF 56,239]

35 minutes ago, JustJames said:

1. Paparazzi

1. 'Paparazzi,' despite its noted place in her canon, was her lowest charting single to-date at #6 and would remain as such until 'Judas' (more on that to come later). Does anyoe have data -- sales/downloads trajectories or other predictive data to make a solid claim that 'Paparazzi' was indeed still on the rise when 'Bad Romance' was dropped? Where do we think its peak would have hit? 

2. If it can't be quantified, is it consensus that it would have at at the very least gained more 'weight' as one of her biggest hits with more exposure?

3.  Would BR dropping later cause a ripple effect that would cancel out any positives of letting 'Paparazzi' climb? For me, if 'Paparazzi' had gotten to #4 -- above her previous single, 'LoveGame' -- that would have made delaying BR worth it. An upswing at that stage of an era/exposure is a sign that new music is definitely not needed, and knowing the overexposure that would come from her going nonstop from TF > TFM > BTW, milking TF with 'Paparazzi' into the fall, followed by a true re-release of the album + a final single (one of her unreleased songs like 'Freakshow' or maybe a collab remix of an 'almost-there' track like 'The Fame,' or even 'Telephone') looks like a great option to me.

4. Could 'Paparazzi' been submitted for "Best Pop Female Vocal Performane" for the 2009-2010 Grammys ('Pokerface' having been submitted, nominated, and ultimately winning 'Best Dance Recording')? 

MTN / Judas / EOG

1. Are there sources for the established rumor that MTN was meant to the lead for the BTW era? Everything about its lyrics (re: her being dropped from her label etc), to its sound (does that sound like a *5th* single to you?), to it being the lead track lead me to believe that Gaga had every intention of it being the first single. 

2. Would you agre that MTN (or the majority of BTW tracks) would have likely debuted #1 based on hype/momentum alone? I wish so much it had, since the song is A+ and its MV deserved more than a rush winter release. I think MTN (#1) > BTW (#1) > EOG (#1) > You and I (#3) > Scheisse (edited; #6) > Heavy Metal Lover (#6) could be realistic; thoughts?

3. Has anyone done any kind of math to determine how 'Judas' would have done combining its first-week (3 days) with its second? #10 is super impressive for 3 days of tracking; but, what a terrible move given the negative spin it received despite that achievement.

4. Has anyone done any kind of math to determine how 'Edge of Glory' would have done if you add average numbers to its digital sales debut? The fact it debuted at #3 as a promo against 'Hair' without a MV or full radio release is incredible; this song deserves a place in the top 3 of her canon, and was a worthy successor to 'BTW' as her 4th #1. 

5. What was the official rationale for the promo releasing of EOG? What are some logical explanations for that type of move? I can't fathom how it could end with the song performing to its full potential, but maybe I am missing something. 

https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/266815/derulo-tops-hot-100-but-swift-swoops-in-with-record-breaking-debut-sum

When Paparazzi was #6, Bad Romance debuted at #9 with 143.000 downloads.

This is Paparazzi's chart run 74-44-18-7-7-6-7-6-6-6-7-9-8-11-11-11-15-15-14-22-27-30-32-33-37-40-49

So I'd say it's safe to assume it was still climbing at that point and Bad Romance killed it off. 

 

30 minutes ago, JustJames said:

Bad Romance / Alejandro / Dance in the Dark 

1. Were there any major blunders that were avoidable that prevented BR from charting #1? Or, was it simply bad luck with 'Empire State of Mind' and 'TikTok' co*k-blocking it?

2. Do you side with Gaga or Interscope on the 'Alejandro' vs. 'DITD' 3rd single battle? 'DITD' was my favorite immediately upon hearing TFM, and can't fathom why it a) wasn't a favorite of Gaga's or b) why it wouldn't be released as at least as a 4th single. 'Alejandro' peaked at #5 and was a sharp decline, brining negative publicity for its MV and ending her peak era on a sour note. 

3. What are the pros of releasing a song as a single in limited markets? If 'DITD' was released in some territories, why not just send it over to U.S. radio and record a MV and see how it does? Similar to ASIB ending at 'Shallow,' TFM was clearly important to Gaga and releasing only 3 singles - despite their rollouts and visuals, etc., being flawless IMO - seems like a miss. 

4. What type of success do you think 'DITD' might have achieved in terms of the charts? Would it have improved upon 'Alejandro' or dipped further? Would a full single release and MV have given Gaga an edge for "AOTY" and "Best Dance Recording" at the 2010-2011 Grammys?

1. Other than releasing at a different point, I don't think Bad Romance could've went #1. If the music video views were counted - I believe but I'm not 100% sure, then I think BR would have reached #1 but charts didn't function that way then.

2. Both Alejandro and Dance In The Dark are flawless and single-worthy and think both could've been hits.

3. A music video, sending it to all radios across the globe is expensive and requires live performances, money, energy. Sending it only in certain countries was a lowkey attempt to milk the era more because of the possibility of getting one more hit and having more exposure to the album.

4. A top 3 to be honest.. All her official singles at that point went top 10, top 10 for Gaga in 2010/2011 was a given plus the song is good. 

 

36 minutes ago, JustJames said:

 

MTN / Judas / EOG

1. Are there sources for the established rumor that MTN was meant to the lead for the BTW era? Everything about its lyrics (re: her being dropped from her label etc), to its sound (does that sound like a *5th* single to you?), to it being the lead track lead me to believe that Gaga had every intention of it being the first single. 

2. Would you agre that MTN (or the majority of BTW tracks) would have likely debuted #1 based on hype/momentum alone? I wish so much it had, since the song is A+ and its MV deserved more than a rush winter release. I think MTN (#1) > BTW (#1) > EOG (#1) > You and I (#3) > Scheisse (edited; #6) > Heavy Metal Lover (#6) could be realistic; thoughts?

3. Has anyone done any kind of math to determine how 'Judas' would have done combining its first-week (3 days) with its second? #10 is super impressive for 3 days of tracking; but, what a terrible move given the negative spin it received despite that achievement.

4. Has anyone done any kind of math to determine how 'Edge of Glory' would have done if you add average numbers to its digital sales debut? The fact it debuted at #3 as a promo against 'Hair' without a MV or full radio release is incredible; this song deserves a place in the top 3 of her canon, and was a worthy successor to 'BTW' as her 4th #1. 

5. What was the official rationale for the promo releasing of EOG? What are some logical explanations for that type of move? I can't fathom how it could end with the song performing to its full potential, but maybe I am missing something. 

1. She said The breadth of the album is enormous. My fans are going to enjoy the journey. One of my favorite songs on the album is the last song. It was originally going to be the first single. It's called "Marry the Night." in this Billboard interview

2. I think the #1 for any song released as a lead single was a given because of the hype. Judas damaged her reputation and the chart runs of the songs that followed so I agree on that too. I don't think she would have gotten 3 #1s because not even The Fame could but top 3s and top 10 for sure. I don't think Heavy Metal Lover would have been a big hit because of the sound and the fact that naturally the last singles of an era don't do that well.

5. Promo singles give a glimpse to the sound of the album to fans without being full-on promoted singles. That was most likely their reasoning, so yeah they underestimated its potential.

 

I am interested to hear answers to the rest of the questions too.

[Gracious Gaga 17,163]

I love imagining born this way with marry the night as the closing track.  I’m assuming born this way would be the opening track and the rest of the track list would remain the same just with marry the night at the end.  Edge of glory could be a great opening track too, however.

[Twitter 14]

I’m a huge fan of Paparazzi and can say that the song had more potential. BR ruined the success to sum it up. 

[Floppy 7,951]

I wonder if the MTN video would have been different if it was the first single? I also wonder how much a shortened video would have affected it's success.

[JustJames 1,021]

@FfFfFfFF Thanks so much for the reply! I know the info is out there, but it's hard to piece it all together with the changes to the way that charts work, the amount of unsubstantiative info on Gaga, etc. 

I hate to say anything that can be spun as negative re: The Fame Monster, but like... Interscope got in the way so many times, but seemed to cave in to Gaga the few times I disagree with her decision-making. I have seen her quote about the idea of an album re-release being disingenuous artistically since it essentially is a ploy to get more album sales. But, in her case, her stardom had been rising so steadily that once Pokerface ended, the persona of 'Lady Gaga' was bigger than anything that 'The Fame' could offer, IMO, beside 'Paparazzi.'

Fully promoting 'Paparazzi' as the transitioning single between The Fame LP and The Fame Monster (original 3-song request re-release of The Fame) would not have been low-brow at all; a re-release with 'Monster' having a retrospective MV looking back at the boyfriend she killed in Paparazzi  and 'Telephone' banging with the Beyonce feature and MV would have been far more representative of where she was as an artist than 'Money Honey,' 'BDR,' 'BBB,' or 'Brown Eyes.' 

I could see her grabbing 1-1-5-3-1-2 with Paparazzi, Monster, and Telephone closing out the era and re-release. RE: DITD, I guess my question re: the limited release is, what was gained by releasing it in Australia and averted by not releasing it in the U.S. at a time when everyone knew it'd be a Top 10 hit? I wish she had released a full 11-track LP or at least released 4 full singles off TFM if she wasn't going to do the re-release. A DITD video would have been iconic and it was so symbolic of TFM vision. It just kills me how Billie Eilish swept the Grammys with 1 top 10 hit when Gaga's first 3 releases were so much more powerful and had the numbers to back them up. 

RE: Born This Way era, I have never really been on the 'HML' train as far it being a single, but I have always felt that the album - like ARTPOP and Joanne - was great in totality, but lacking in singles material. A MTN > BTW > EOG opening to the era would have succeeded and been legendary, but beyond those 3, what would you release? You and I is the only serviceable song for a 4th single since she would have needed something slower/different in sound, but it took WORK for it to chart as well as it did, which was only #6. Scheisse should have been THAT song, but if it were censored, then it's a non-starter. That makes EOG being ruined by a promo release even more confusing. The wait for the album drop was unnecessarily long and should have coincided with the release of BTW (as a 2nd single) in March after MTN (Jan '11) ran its course as lead, EOG in June, You and I in September,  and I guess that's it? The ~11 singles theory just seems totally unrealistic.

[JustJames 1,021]

1 hour ago, Floppy said:

I wonder if the MTN video would have been different if it was the first single? I also wonder how much a shortened video would have affected it's success.

I think the narrative of her coming back stronger post-Def Jam would have made for a compelling lead single and the MV she ultimately released. 

[Floppy 7,951]

6 minutes ago, JustJames said:

Fully promoting 'Paparazzi' as the transitioning single between The Fame LP and The Fame Monster (original 3-song request re-release of The Fame) would not have been low-brow at all; a re-release with 'Monster' having a retrospective MV looking back at the boyfriend she killed in Paparazzi  and 'Telephone' banging with the Beyonce feature and MV would have been far more representative of where she was as an artist than 'Money Honey,' 'BDR,' 'BBB,' or 'Brown Eyes.' 

I could see her grabbing 1-1-5-3-1-2 with Paparazzi, Monster, and Telephone closing out the era and re-release. RE: DITD, I guess my question re: the limited release is, what was gained by releasing it in Australia and averted by not releasing it in the U.S. at a time when everyone knew it'd be a Top 10 hit? I wish she had released a full 11-track LP or at least released 4 full singles off TFM if she wasn't going to do the re-release. A DITD video would have been iconic and it was so symbolic of TFM vision. It just kills me how Billie Eilish swept the Grammys with 1 top 10 hit when Gaga's first 3 releases were so much more powerful and had the numbers to back them up. 

I might get dragged for this but I wish she stuck with Monster as the original single from TFM. I feel monster would have bridged the story gap of Paparazzi and Telephone better. But that's just my stan mind talking. 

[Miracle 14,068]

1 hour ago, Floppy said:

I wonder if the MTN video would have been different if it was the first single? I also wonder how much a shortened video would have affected it's success.

Definitely not. Gaga was truly pushing all mainstream boundaries with BTW by releasing the weirdest art she had ever done. Just look at the BTW video...

 

[Floppy 7,951]

1 minute ago, Miracle said:

Definitely not. Gaga was truly pushing all mainstream boundaries with BTW by releasing the weirdest art she had ever done. Just look at the BTW video...

 

I actually agree with this. This was her peak "weirdo" going into ARTPOP. I miss it tbh.

[27monster27 13,449]

I am just leaving this reply here because I will be replying in full later. I can't reply right now unfortunately.

[holy scheisse 22,299]

Gosh I remember the paparazzi era like it was yesterday.   bad romance leaking was crazy... It was 10x bigger, better than anything on tfm. Paparazzi came out way after the fame was released I think we were all ready to move forward Gaga included 

 

Alejandro > dance in the dark, but I do wish it was the official 4th single... Followed by monster. They both would've been hits. 

 

Anything from btw would've gone number 1 as first single I think, because she was just so huge after the fame/monster. Judas truly derailed her and people were not here for "sacriligeous" bad romance 2.0. but also, she had to "fall" eventually... Nobody has ever had only top 10 chatting singles, ever. It was def hard to deal with Judas and MTN "flopping" bc it not only signaled the end of Gaga's "peak", but also had an impact on Gaga's confidence that was evident.

 

Much like dwuw later, they put eog out probably not knowing how it would be received. It was a different track compared to what she had out out previously. But they saw it do well so they tried to recover by dropping it quickly after the Judas backlash

[RochestrMonstr 3,229]

This is bringing back memories!

I remember thinking it was bizarre when Bad Romance came out. Paparazzi probably suffered but it still had a very good chart run. 

I’m glad it did though. BR really kicked something into overdrive and paved the way for her most flawless era, 

Judas, though I love the song and video, felt like a huge misstep and rocked the whole era. And the massive overexposure and backlash of the BTW era felt worse (to me) than what seemed more like overall indifference from people (except the media, they were still mean) during ARTPOP. 

[Drin Lon 7,875]

I think Paparazzi would have gone top5 for sure.

I think that if TFM was released as a separate album (early 2010) it would have probably sold just as much as TF. Billboard counts the re-release as solely The Fame but you can see that The Fame was already dropping significantly on the BB200 before TFM came. I think probably WW we’d have these numbers: The Fame 8M/9M The Fame Monster 7M/8M sales. 

Unpopular opinion but I don’t think DITD would have been a big hit even if pushed. A cute top10 peak would have been it tbh, which is not bad obviously.

MTN is objectively better than BTW but I’m happy BTW was the lead. If planned and released as the 2nd single TEOG would have absolutely gone #1.

You didn’t mention it but I think if Applause hadn’t leaked and had been released with the planned schedule: MV and VMAs performance both in the debut week, it would have most likely peaked at #2.