Mills 446 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Red is bound to be the biggest and most successful era of Taylor Swift, chart-wise to be quite honest. Well, at least within the US. :fan: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magoo 6 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 On the Hot 100 formula: Chart positions on the Hot 100 may be estimated/calculated by a formula of the type Points = (a * sales) + (b * airplay) + (c * streaming), with the three multipliers a,b,c adjusted to fit the observed chart positions of previous weeks. If set b=1 for the BDS/Nielsen airplay AI/m that Billboard use (which is about 70% of the Mediabase figure), then the resulting formula is something like: Points = (65% * sales/K) + (airplay AI/m) + (6% * streaming) However this formula does not always work because the multiplier before the sales seems to vary. In order to reconcile the figures for the sales week of 6-12 August when Whistle reached #1 over Lights, CMM and Wide Awake, a high multiplier e.g. 73% is needed to account for why Whistle overcame the songs with much higher airplay. In order to reconcile why One More Night beat Gangnam Style in the week just gone, a low multiplier of 62% is needed to explain why OMN's airplay overcame GS' sales. The difference seems to do with whether it is a high sales week or a low sales week, If it is a high sales week, the multipler for the sales is reduced to compensate. For the above two weeks, the sales of the song at #30 on itunes was about the same (at 48K per week) so there was not underlying difference (like there would be at Christmas). However in the week just gone there have some notable high-selling new entries. The Top 10 digital songs sold 1526K in the week that Whistle reached #1 and 1736K in the week just gone. So perhaps the multiplier for the sales is say 1080 K/(combined sales of top 10 digital songs); it would then have been 72% in the week that Whistle got #1 and 63% in the week just gone. What that will do is reduce the impact on the Hot 100 of a high-selling debut, but it will also affect other songs charting. So it might be that Gangham Style failed to reach #1 because the sales multiplier was reduced, and that was reduced particularly because of Taylor Swift's high sales skewing the formula. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magoo 6 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 (edited) Early BB Hot 100 calculations for NEXT week based on 3 days of itunes bars, current airplay and a streaming estimate #position, sales (000's) + Mediabase airplay (A.I. millions) + streaming (Ks x 6%) = points, artist, song, (change on Hot 100) #1 185 + 143 + 48 = 263 Maroon 5 One More Night (=) #2 259 + 50 + 48 = 244 PSY Gangnam Style (=) #3 368 + 0 + 0 = 228 Taylor Swift Red (New) #4 333 + 27 + 3 = 228 One Direction LWWY (New) #5 138 + 114 + 44 = 210 Fun. Some Nights (-2) #6 160 + 125 + 0 = 187 Taylor Swift WANEGBT (-3) #7 95 + 126 + 39 = 185 Justin Bieber ALAYLM (-1) #8 70 + 154 + 25 = 178 P!nk Blow Me 1LK (-3) #9 98 + 93 + 37 = 163 Alex Clare Too Close (=) #10 88 + 98 + 38 = 161 Flo Rida Whistle (-2) #11 79 + 101 + 36 = 156 Owl City + Carly Rae Jepsen GT (-1) #12 61 + 110 + 28 = 143 Neon Trees Everybody Talks (-1) #13 37 + 108 + 40 = 138 Ellie Goulding Lights (-1) #14 152 + 39 + 5 = 127 ke$ha Die Young (-1) #15 68 + 85 + 24 = 125 Chris Brown Don't Wake Me Up (-1) #16 50 + 83 + 35 = 124 Gotye STIUTK ft Kimbra (+3) #17 51 + 65 + 42 = 119 Carly Rae Jepsen CMM (-2) #18 37 + 104 + 21 = 116 Katy Perry Wide Awake (-1) #19 45 + 55 + 46 = 112 Kanye West Mercy (+1) #20 87 + 36 + 29 = 108 Kanye West + Jay Z Clique (+2) #21 56 + 77 + 18 = 107 Nicki Minaj Pound the Alarm (-3) #22 121 + 33 + 5 = 103 Rihanna Diamonds (-6) #23 40 + 69 + 28 = 101 Maroon 5 Payphone ft. Khalifa (-2) #24 85 + 40 + 20 = 101 Phillip Phillips Home (+3) #25 70 + 69 + 7 = 99 Ne-Yo LMLY (-) *points = 62% x sales/K + 70% x Mediabase airplay (A.I. millions) + 6% x on demand streaming/K Looks like PSY's chance for #1 has passed, as its sales have fallen Approx week's sales for Gaga: PF 4.7, TEOG 4.4K, JD 3.8, BTW 3.8K, BR 3.6K, Y+I 3.4K Edited October 4, 2012 by Magoo Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alii 2,039 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 (edited) Early BB Hot 100 calculations for NEXT week based on 3 days of itunes bars, current airplay and a streaming estimate #position, sales (000's) + Mediabase airplay (A.I. millions) + streaming (Ks x 6%) = points, artist, song, (change on Hot 100) #1 185 + 143 + 48 = 263 Maroon 5 One More Night (=) #2 259 + 50 + 48 = 244 PSY Gangnam Style (=) #3 368 + 0 + 0 = 228 Taylor Swift Red (New) #4 333 + 27 + 3 = 228 One Direction LWWY (New) #16 50 + 83 + 35 = 124 Gotye STIUTK ft Kimbra (+3) Good for Taylor I love Red, I don`t like that 1D debut is higher than Rihanna and Ke$ha Looks like Riri and Ke$ha won`t have hits tbh :( Edited October 4, 2012 by Alii Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
boysboysboys 278 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I can't believe you guys think Taylor is slaying. Her songs from Red are substandard and they rise as quickly as they fall. Whatever, we'll see with the album. That will really tell the score, and seeing how they're using up all promo with the singles, it's not going to be as big, too. Looks like Riri and Ke$ha won`t have hits tbh :( The videos aren't even out yet. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase 13,042 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 iTunes update 01. Red - Taylor Swift 02. Live While We're Young - One Direction 03. Gangnam Style (ê°â€¢Ã«â€š¨Ã¬Å ¤Ãƒ€ì¼) - PSY 04. One More Night - Maroon 5 05. We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together - Taylor Swift 06. Die Young - Ke$ha 07. Some Nights - Fun. 08. Locked Out of Heaven - Bruno Mars 09. Diamonds - Rihanna 10. Begin Again - Taylor Swift 11. Just What I Am (feat. King Chip) - Kid Cudi 12. Too Close - Alex Clare 13. As Long As You Love Me (feat. Big Sean) - Justin Bieber 14. Whistle - Flo Rida 15. Home - Phillip Phillips 16. 50 Ways to Say Goodbye - Train 17. Cruise - Florida Georgia Line 18. Good Time - Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen 19. Every Storm (Runs Out of Rain) - Gary Allan 20. Clique - Kanye West, Jay-Z & Big Sean 21. Let Me Love You (Until You Learn to Love Yourself) - Ne-Yo 22. Blown Away - Carrie Underwood 23. Wanted - Hunter Hayes 24. Finally Found You (feat. Sammy Adams) - Enrique Iglesias 25. Don't Wake Me Up - Chris Brown 26. Everybody Talks - Neon Trees 27. Southern Comfort Zone - Brad Paisley 28. I Will Wait - Mumford & Sons 29. Blow Me (One Last Kiss) - P!nk 30. I Won't Give Up - Jason Mraz 31. Ho Hey - The Lumineers 32. Girl On Fire (Inferno Version) [feat. Nicki Minaj] - Alicia Keys 33. Want U Back - Cher Lloyd 34. It's Time - Imagine Dragons 35. Call Me Maybe - Carly Rae Jepsen 36. The A Team - Ed Sheeran 37. Feel Again - OneRepublic 38. Your Body - Christina Aguilera 39. Bandz a Make Her Dance (feat. Lil Wayne & 2 Chainz) - Juicy J 40. Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye - Luke Bryan Selected Others 42. I Cry - Flo Rida 55. Hello - Karmin 57. Swimming Pools (Drank) - Kendrick Lamar 65. Thinkin Bout You - Frank Ocean 69. Oath (feat. Becky G) - Cher Lloyd 75. Don't You Worry Child (Radio Edit) [feat. John Martin] - Swedish House Mafia 88. Hall of Fame (feat. will.i.am) - The Script 94. Anything Could Happen - Ellie Goulding Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddy 4,421 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Your Body goes from 34 to 64 this week. Smashing as hard as Nelly Furtado or so. I do feel bad for her, since she actually CAN sing and write her things, unlike most other popstars. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 ***Maybe the new rihanna album that will come out mid-2013 :rip: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANiCURE1295 8,673 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I wouldn't say Taylor Swift is smashing...yet. Yes her first single is doing okay. Great sales wise but idk how radio play is. And begin again is already falling. This always happens with big artists. When hair and the edge of glory came out they shot right up to number one because they were promo singles. Lets wait until October 22 to see if she smashes. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
boysboysboys 278 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Your Body goes from 34 to 64 this week. Smashing as hard as Nelly Furtado or so. I do feel bad for her, since she actually CAN sing and write her things, unlike most other popstars. I do agree. It's amazing how well-tolerated some popstars are, i.e. how it's almost become acceptable for them to purchase songwriters, instrument players and vocalists. They are using image to distort music-making in order to plunder fame and fortune for themselves. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Americano 31,061 Posted October 4, 2012 Author Share Posted October 4, 2012 Gaga's gonna lose her Twitter lead to Rihanna eventually. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase 13,042 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Gaga's gonna lose her Twitter lead to Rihanna eventually. :wtf: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
boysboysboys 278 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Gaga's gonna lose her Twitter lead to Rihanna eventually. What can she do about it? Her label could barely influence innuendo towards her and her public-image-handling is stank. Like I said, she's a PR disaster right now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Americano 31,061 Posted October 4, 2012 Author Share Posted October 4, 2012 (edited) She lost Youtube, Facebook, and now is gonna lose Twitter. She had that for a good year before losing it all due to the BTW era Edited October 4, 2012 by Bryan Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhonyguy04 3 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Gaga's gonna lose her Twitter lead to Rihanna eventually. and there is gonna be 500 articles on it. unlike now, where there is no articles about her reaching 30 million. anyways, if this is a flop era for Rihanna, maybe that will change. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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