Warren leading in Iowa

[thedirtymonster 788]

42 minutes ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

The press has been having a field day with this despite the fact that it's a massive outlier poll.

A pundit on MSNBC used it to claim that Sanders should drop out despite the fact that he's polling in second place nationally and is currently tied for 1st in California and leading in NH. I just... You can't make this sort of nonsense up. 

The Des Moines Register poll is notably the most respected, and most accurate poll out there. Yes this is just Iowa polling, but that said, Bernie is actually polling 3rd in the nation, not second. His polling average is 16.6%, Warren at 19.8. Additionally, he's NOT polling in 1st in California. There were two polls out of California recently, and he tied Biden in one poll at 26, while falling 9 points behind Biden in another, meaning a 4.5 point lead for Biden in the polling average. I haven't heard anyone refer to any of these polls to claim Bernie should drop out. That just sounds like a Bernie supporter trying to play the victim again. This time around it's not so easy to claim victimhood, and there's no excuse for his polling numbers to be in the downward slope they have been besides people are finally realizing he's a fraud and a conman.

Warren's slow climb is what should scare Bernie. They're going after the same base, and Warren is the one that's sticking. Where Bernie should be most nervous is Warren's strength among women and growing approval among the African American community. Bernie has always struggled with those two demographics, and between Biden and Warren, there may not be much room for Bernie to grow.

That's just my commentary on the facts. As far as my personal politics go, I'm actually quite a moderate. I align most with Amy Klobuchar's views, but she's a much longer shot for a nomination.

[REALITY 80,185]

12 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

Y'all are forgetting Harris surged back in July and look at where she's at now. Not saying Warren is in that position, but the only candidates who have remained consistent in actually LEADING (1st and 2nd) are Biden and Sanders. Warren has consistently been surging but now she just has to maintain that momentum to be as consistent as the other two leading candidates. 

The difference between Harris and Warren is that Warren has also consistently been in third place (generally speaking) when it comes to this primary cycle.  Harris did make a pretty significant jump in July, but Warren now becoming a second/first place candidate isn't  too  out of the realm of possibility.

[Morphine Prince 109,739]

1 minute ago, PoshLife said:

Yeah see I just don't really get where you're coming from on this.

Bland: Who cares? Not everyone needs to be excited by their candidate or feel that they check certain demographic boxes - for a lot of us, it's enough just to like them and agree with their policies. And Biden DOES enjoy a high favorability rating among Democrats.

Out-of-touch: Depends on your perspective. There are a lot of working class people who think he's actually very much IN touch with their needs. That's a major part of why Obama chose him as his VP pick: to shore up support in that flank of the Democratic Party (white working class) while Obama appealed predominantly to younger people and people of color. It's also a major part of his value add for this election, since white working class people who felt disfranchised and left behind swung for Trump in a big way last time.

Bland:Trump will chew him alive at the debates. Trump will gaslight him to hell. Literally ANYONE else (Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg) is better equipped to "debate" someone like Trump. I doubt he'll get young people out to vote like we NEED.

Out-of-touch: He is out of touch with what someone like me wants. White working class people feel disfranchised by both parties. I highly doubt they'll be as excited for an Obama-lite to take over. Hillary didn't manage to capture their vote, I would hope Biden could pick it back up but I'm not betting my money on it. 

[Morphine Prince 109,739]

7 minutes ago, thedirtymonster said:

The Des Moines Register poll is notably the most respected, and most accurate poll out there. Yes this is just Iowa polling, but that said, Bernie is actually polling 3rd in the nation, not second. His polling average is 16.6%, Warren at 19.8. Additionally, he's NOT polling in 1st in California. There were two polls out of California recently, and he tied Biden in one poll at 26, while falling 9 points behind Biden in another, meaning a 4.5 point lead for Biden in the polling average. I haven't heard anyone refer to any of these polls to claim Bernie should drop out. That just sounds like a Bernie supporter trying to play the victim again. This time around it's not so easy to claim victimhood, and there's no excuse for his polling numbers to be in the downward slope they have been besides people are finally realizing he's a fraud and a conman.

Warren's slow climb is what should scare Bernie. They're going after the same base, and Warren is the one that's sticking. Where Bernie should be most nervous is Warren's strength among women and growing approval among the African American community. Bernie has always struggled with those two demographics, and between Biden and Warren, there may not be much room for Bernie to grow.

That's just my commentary on the facts. As far as my personal politics go, I'm actually quite a moderate. I align most with Amy Klobuchar's views, but she's a much longer shot for a nomination.

 

That explains the rest of your post, I guess. 

[Othon 34,299]

5 minutes ago, thedirtymonster said:

The Des Moines Register poll is notably the most respected, and most accurate poll out there. Yes this is just Iowa polling, but that said, Bernie is actually polling 3rd in the nation, not second. His polling average is 16.6%, Warren at 19.8. Additionally, he's NOT polling in 1st in California. There were two polls out of California recently, and he tied Biden in one poll at 26, while falling 9 points behind Biden in another, meaning a 4.5 point lead for Biden in the polling average.

You're citing individual polls and averaging them out together () while ignoring the larger picture when it comes to other polling averages.

6 minutes ago, thedirtymonster said:

That just sounds like a Bernie supporter trying to play the victim again. This time around it's not so easy to claim victimhood, and there's no excuse for his polling numbers to be in the downward slope they have been besides people are finally realizing he's a fraud and a conman.

And here we see why you're pushing bad data.  Thanks for wasting my time.

[thedirtymonster 788]

35 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

Y'all are forgetting Harris surged back in July and look at where she's at now. Not saying Warren is in that position, but the only candidates who have remained consistent in actually LEADING (1st and 2nd) are Biden and Sanders. Warren has consistently been surging but now she just has to maintain that momentum to be as consistent as the other two leading candidates. 

I think that the Harris surge and the Warren growth aren't super comparable. Harris surged after a debate performance, but failed to keep the momentum up. Warren has had a slow, steady rise, and keeps building. That's the way to win elections.

[Morphine Prince 109,739]

1 minute ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

You're citing individual polls and averaging them out together () while ignoring the larger picture when it comes to other polling averages.

And here we see why you're pushing bad data.  Thanks for wasting my time.

If you look at RealClearPolitics they have Warren in second, a fairly recent shift. I'd be interested to see if that holds true in a few months. 

[thedirtymonster 788]

14 minutes ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

You're citing individual polls and averaging them out together () while ignoring the larger picture when it comes to other polling averages.

And here we see why you're pushing bad data.  Thanks for wasting my time.

Let me present the FACTS, honey. I'm happy to take some of my time to inform you.

I am using the RCP Average. They take all recent polls (of which there have been two) and take the average. It's really simple math. Though, I'll entertain the silly idea that we should somehow weigh a poll higher than another, even though the two polls were taken during the EXACT same time frame. Here we go:

The poll with Bernie tied with Biden, the Emerson poll. Polled 424 Democratic voters. MoE = 4.7%. Emerson is rated a B+ by FiveThirtyEight.
The poll that has Bernie down 9 points on Biden. Polled 548 Democratic Primary voters (a 30% larger sample size). MoE = 4.8% (almost identical). SurveyUSA is rated a coveted A-rating by FiveThirtyEight.

If you're going to weigh the polls to come to an average, I think I'd weigh the A-Rated pollster with the higher sample size more than I would the lower-rated pollster with a smaller sample size. So, I suppose Bernie's trailing by even MORE than the RCP average, if we were to do that.

...But I'm not up on my "Bernie math". :-D

[Whispering 18,865]

36 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

Y'all are forgetting Harris surged back in July and look at where she's at now. Not saying Warren is in that position, but the only candidates who have remained consistent in actually LEADING (1st and 2nd) are Biden and Sanders. Warren has consistently been surging but now she just has to maintain that momentum to be as consistent as the other two leading candidates. 

That was a quick sugar rush.

Warren has been steadily gaining since she began. The more people hear her and get to know her, the more that support her.

Hers is not a quick spike, but a consistent steady rise.

[Morphine Prince 109,739]

25 minutes ago, thedirtymonster said:

I think that the Harris surge and the Warren growth aren't super comparable. Harris surged after a debate performance, but failed to keep the momentum up. Warren has had a slow, steady rise, and keeps building. That's the way to win elections.

 

6 minutes ago, Whispering said:

That was a quick sugar rush.

Warren has been steadily gaining since she began. The more people hear her and get to know her, the more that support her.

Hers is not a quick spike, but a consistent steady rise.

She got a decent spike after this last debate just by looking at RCP averages. 

And now is when the real battle begins between the top contenders. We are 4 months away from the start of the primaries. 

[PunkTheFunk 125,719]

1 hour ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

Instead of a Bernie/Warren ticket, despite the fact that he's more progressive, has more comprehensive, universal, and progressive policy proposals, polls much better against Trump and has a much better record (ex: he didn't vote to give Trump nearly $1 trillion for his military budget like Warren did)?

I supported him in 2016. I'm just sick of him now on a personal level.

[TheQueenLG 2,469]

Warren's support has steadily increased. 

Bernie's support has steadily decreased. 

That's the facts. (If you interpret the polls as the facts, which, if you're anyone but Trump, you do). 

I'd be happier with a Bernie Presidency, tbh. But I would also be happy with a Warren Presidency. 

I agree that Biden's numbers are concerning... His policies suck and he does well because of identity politics, imo. 

If Warren continues to rise, and the polls suggest that she will, she may create a big gap between her (in second place) and Bernie (in third place). If that happens, I may strategically begin supporting Warren, because I would prefer a Warren Presidency over a Biden Presidency any day of the week!

One thing that concerns me is a popular Dem candidate losing the nomination and then running as a third party candidate. If god-forbid Biden wins the nomination, ALL Dems needs to rally behind him unless we want four more years of Trump, because that's the alternative. 

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

2 hours ago, Morphine Prince said:

They hate Sanders so much it's so pathetic  

Just makes me solidify my support even further. These are the same people who backed Clinton 100% the entire way and were sure she could beat ANYONE and it was her time no matter what

 

Hillary wasn't likeable niether is Bernie. 

[HorusRa2 5,005]

Looks like this thread needs a dose of facts and math. 

Bernie performs much less in online vs telephone polling—10 pts per the below. && for you all that don’t know history, Bernie pulled off the biggest polling vs actual discrepancy ever last cycle with Michigan—I think he did better than the polls by about 14 points. Also, the same pollster got Bernie’s support off by 8% last time against Clinton (42% vs 50). && Again, Bernie over performed in polling in every caucus state in 2016 because instead of getting the people who normally show up to vote to show up and vote, he changed who came out and voted. The polling didn’t catch it last time & it’s not going to catch it this time despite anything the pundits have to say. && Again, the Sanders campaign has over 25K volunteers in Iowa & 1K Iowa voters who donated over $200 to the campaign & 7K in Iowa who donated less than $200. Y’all can squabble all you want about this poll, but a reckoning is coming to y’all come Election Day. 

[Morphine Prince 109,739]

34 minutes ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

Hillary wasn't likeable niether is Bernie. 

I like him, sorry ‘bout it.