PunkTheFunk 124,530 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 I was reading the Gaga wins Best Actress at National Board of Review thread earlier today and was surprised to see people being so negative about her win. The general sentiment seems to be that winning that award reduces the odds of Gaga winning the Oscar next February. It was, as one user put it, a "kiss of death" Well, I'm here to (sort of) debunk that. I put together a list of all Best Actress winners at the National Board of Review awards from 2000 to 2017, and here's what I found: Out of the 18 years I analyzed, there were 6 instances when the NBR Best Actress winner also won the Oscar (33%). In another 4 instances, the NBR winner wasn't even nominated for the Oscar. (We don't care about those 4 because Gaga's Oscar nom is basically a done deal at this point.) That leaves 8 years (44%) when the NBR Best Actress winner was nominated for the Oscar, but did not win it. Let's take a closer look at them: 2003, 04, 09, 12, and 17: One actress wins the NBR, but another sweeps the GG's, SAG, and Critic's Choice, and wins the Oscar. 2005: Felicity Huffman wins NBR and GG's, but Reese sweeps the SAG and Critic's Choice awards, and wins the Oscar. 2007: A wildcard year. Julie Christie sweeps awards season, but Marion Cotillard swoops in at the last minute with her role in La Vie En Rose. 2008: Another toss-up year. Awards season goes back and forth between Anne, Kate, and Meryl, but Kate ultimately takes the Oscar. In 5 out of those 8 years, the NBR winner didn't win anything else, and another actress steamrolled through awards season. The remaining three years -- 2005, 2007, and 2008 -- were toss-ups. So what does this all mean? Considering ASIB is a strong awards vehicle and Gaga's performance has received universal acclaim, I don't think this year is shaping up to be like the five I mentioned above (where the NBR winner falls off the radar after their win). Best case scenario: we're in for a situation like 2000/06/14/15 when the NBR winner sweeps every major acting award. Worst case scenario: we end up with a toss-up year like 2008, with Gaga, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman (and maybe even Emily Blunt) fighting tooth and nail for Oscar glory over the next 3 months. My point is, winning the NBR is not a 'curse', and doesn't discount Gaga from the rest of awards season at all. But in any case, buckle up your seat belts and get your vomit bags out because it's going to be a long road to the Oscars. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
emig09 24,701 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Great Job! Thanks for sharing gay engineer Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chromasine 5,439 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 I literally adore you Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KatieJudasGaga4 67,907 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Inb4 Gaga doesn't even get nominated Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gypsy101 5,453 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 i still think she’s gonna win the Oscar Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradley 59,243 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 When your GGD analysis is more thorough and convincing than any of your academic projects. Thanks for this thread though. As proven, many actors who won the NBR award also got nominated for the Oscar. I think it is not a curse but a further acclaim and even extended Gaga's award buzz up until the Oscars. I'm only talking about securing a nomination because there are more factors to weigh in later about winning. For example, the Golden Globes is a huge indicator of whether or not Gaga could win Best Actress. I'm sure she'll get nominated at the GG, but if she loses I would say she won't have a high chance of winning since the Oscar win is always between the winners of drama and comedy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyQueen 2,409 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 For music yes, but for best actress no! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanadelduck 2,004 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 we love a science queen, thanks for this Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
S0436 10,215 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 She has over 75% chance of being nominated, which will be seen as winning for a pop star actress Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henri Bardot 3,990 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 If gaga doesn't get dominated this will be the biggest meltdown in the history of GGD. It will outdo the most iconic ones. pooiota Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mirages 20,259 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Idk but Jennifer Lawrence won a Golden Globe in 2012 looks like you only counted Drama for the table of yours...but definitely Gaga has a chance for nomination and nothings lost because she won an award this early in the season. I'm the bitch that's fragile Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bionic 50,107 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Gaga has Best Original Song on lock (both nomination and win), but I would not be surprised if she didn't get an acting nomination at all Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 you truly are the one person in a room of 100 people I still dont see her winning the oscar, wich honestly wont bother me so much as long as she gets a nom and wins for shallow Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunkTheFunk 124,530 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 58 minutes ago, Mirages said: Idk but Jennifer Lawrence won a Golden Globe in 2012 looks like you only counted Drama for the table of yours... Yes you're right. My bad Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
iAstroLeo 14,434 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 People are still recovering from TIHTY's lost oscar so they are trying to not dissapoint themselves Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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