Lithuania Prepares For Russian Invasion

[BlaqJezus 1,027]

4 hours ago, bumblebee said:

I'd rather disagree about the WWII parallels. I know somebody might offer me a ladder to help me with this reach, but once he installs the nuclear bombs on the new hypersonic missiles, he will instantly withdraw from Ukraine, from Moldova and from Georgia. He will stop caring about whether those countries join NATO or not, because he will possess the new kind of mass destruction weapons that would easily overcome any defense system in the world. And I suppose he will be happy about withdrawing troops from Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, for it will save him budget money he is currently spending on those troops. 

His reason for participating in the Syrian conflict is pretty obvious and clear, although far too many people reject it, labeling it as too simplified. Following the new KYOTO protocol signed in Paris last year, most of the countries have to reduce the greenhouse emissions into the air by switching from oil to natural gas and alternative energy sources. The EU is not an exception and, considering the fact that EU has always been the top consumer of Russian natural gas, Putin had all the rights to be happy, previewing the gas export growth. 

However, it seems Putin fears that Qatar, backed by Saudi Arabia, might also try to grab its share of the European gas pipeline market and construct the pipeline from Qatar to Greece. Qatar currently has the largest gas field in the world; to construct the pipeline, Qatar will have to put it either through Iraq (which is not safe), or through Israel (which is politically impossible), or through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria (then Turkey and then Greece). 

The costs of gas production in Qatar are much lower than in Russia, which means that if the Qatar-Greece pipeline project were finished, Qatar would be able to sell gas to the EU at much lower prices than Russia, thus effectively wiping Russia's Gazprom from the European gas pipeline market.

I don't think Putin is firmly convinced that it's Saudi Arabia and Qatar who are trying to dethrone Assad. But he seems to believe that Saudi Arabia and Qatar would enjoy becoming the gas suppliers of the EU as it would compensate their losses from the low oil prices. 

That's where Putin is very much different from Hitler and proves to be incomparable to him. Hitler created an irrational teaching of race dominance and discovered that war could make the economy work. Putin is a rational (meaning he doesn't have any ideology) politician who wants Russia to remain the major gas supplier of the EU. His and Hitler's motives are very different.  

I didn't compare him to Hitler, I compared the possible consequences and the actual motivations of those of WWII Germany, when the economy was collapsed or collapsing just before the war began to try and restart and get the minds and hearts of that nation against the world for the previous war.

Putin needs no racial ideology, because his country is already traditionally racist and prodominantly white. It would serve no purpose and his assumed enemies are too varied to point out one singular ethnicity. Though I would call him rational, I think he lacks reason which is the issue, and I noticed you didn't dispute that his election seemed suspicious at best.

I don't disagree with what you are saying, but I also think there are consequences to his action that he believes he is avoiding when he very well may not be. One small mistake can cause a world of trouble, and his gambling with the lives or his people and those of other countries, is a risk not well chosen.

[bumblebee 2,528]

8 hours ago, BlaqJezus said:

I didn't compare him to Hitler, I compared the possible consequences and the actual motivations of those of WWII Germany, when the economy was collapsed or collapsing just before the war began to try and restart and get the minds and hearts of that nation against the world for the previous war.

Putin needs no racial ideology, because his country is already traditionally racist and prodominantly white. It would serve no purpose and his assumed enemies are too varied to point out one singular ethnicity. Though I would call him rational, I think he lacks reason which is the issue, and I noticed you didn't dispute that his election seemed suspicious at best.

I don't disagree with what you are saying, but I also think there are consequences to his action that he believes he is avoiding when he very well may not be. One small mistake can cause a world of trouble, and his gambling with the lives or his people and those of other countries, is a risk not well chosen.

About the election - there can be no arguing, really. Now that we have some fascinating young people who conduct deep mathematical research of the voting data (for some weird reasons the electoral comission always posts all the data online in a rather transparent way), we can already go as far as to proclaim how many votes have been "rigged". 

For example, during this year's parliament's election, app. 14% of all the votes were fake. 96% of those 14% of the votes were for the ruling government's party. As for the 2012 Presidential election, there was a deep analysis of the voting data, according to which Putin really scored 57%, instead of the 63%, as officially claimed. Were the elections to be held tomorrow, he would win in a landslide. 

I completely agree with you that the stakes of his foreign policy are very high now. What worries me is the fact that some European leaders have already labeled him as an "outcast", setting a dangerous trend on the isolation of Russia. I remember when Russia and the EU used to be "friends" (2000-2007), the social scene and the political scene in the country were completely different. We had free press, we had deep journalists' investigations, we had independent media and the opposition that was more numerous than the current 15%.  

Following the Georgia war and Putin's Munich conference speech, the friendship between Russia and the EU seemed over, and he felt more free to start designing the political and cultural climate in the country. I fully understand that the EU has some standards for the society, and that Putin is beneath many of them, and it would be impossible to have "business as usual" with him considering he is involved in the Ukrainian war and the Syrian war. At the same time, the lack of dialogue is what makes the conditions in Russia so favourable for the rise of the conservative, right-backed moods.

 

    

[Melech 9,900]

1 hour ago, bumblebee said:

About the election - there can be no arguing, really. Now that we have some fascinating young people who conduct deep mathematical research of the voting data (for some weird reasons the electoral comission always posts all the data online in a rather transparent way), we can already go as far as to proclaim how many votes have been "rigged". 

For example, during this year's parliament's election, app. 14% of all the votes were fake. 96% of those 14% of the votes were for the ruling government's party. As for the 2012 Presidential election, there was a deep analysis of the voting data, according to which Putin really scored 57%, instead of the 63%, as officially claimed. Were the elections to be held tomorrow, he would win in a landslide. 

I completely agree with you that the stakes of his foreign policy are very high now. What worries me is the fact that some European leaders have already labeled him as an "outcast", setting a dangerous trend on the isolation of Russia. I remember when Russia and the EU used to be "friends" (2000-2007), the social scene and the political scene in the country were completely different. We had free press, we had deep journalists' investigations, we had independent media and the opposition that was more numerous than the current 15%.  

Following the Georgia war and Putin's Munich conference speech, the friendship between Russia and the EU seemed over, and he felt more free to start designing the political and cultural climate in the country. I fully understand that the EU has some standards for the society, and that Putin is beneath many of them, and it would be impossible to have "business as usual" with him considering he is involved in the Ukrainian war and the Syrian war. At the same time, the lack of dialogue is what makes the conditions in Russia so favourable for the rise of the conservative, right-backed moods.

 

    

Don't you think he deserves it though? For the way he treats minorities and invades countries?

[The Fame Joanne 5,985]

Putin can't be THAT stupid. I don't think more than some vague threats, like military operations in the border, will happen 

[bumblebee 2,528]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

Don't you think he deserves it though? For the way he treats minorities and invades countries?

It's a very deep question and I can't think of a simple answer. Before I go on, though, let me state one more time that I in no way claim support to his agressive agenda towards minorities or his military operations abroad. 

Firstly, concerning the way he treats minorities. It's doubtless beneath any standards of the USA and most of the EU countries. However, if it's the LGBT minorities we're discussing, we also have to openly admit that they are in better conditions than in many other countries of the world, countries which both, the USA and the EU consider economic partners. When people are trying to paint Russia as the LGBT hell it looks pathetic, considering that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also not the first in line to hold gay pride events in their capital cities - yet the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia are welcome investors in the UK, as well as in the USA and in France, and they are not as heavily criticized as Moscow for the violation of minority rights. 

Secondly, Putin might be a bad motherf*cker, and his regime may be directly or inderictly to blame for the attacks and murders of journalists and opposition leaders. However, when you compare the number of political victims in modern Russia (since 2000) to the number of civilian casualties in Iraq War (113,000 people according to Iraq Body Count project), you realize that as bad a motherf*cker as Putin is, he hasn't slaughtered over 100,000 people in Russia as he was making his way up to the top.

And an important question arises - which regime could be considered more humane: the one that respects the rights of its own citizens while mass-murdering people of a foreign country in a war whose whole pretext and reasoning was proven to be a fraud, or the authoritarian regime who disrespects the rights of its own citizens?  

Concerning his invasions of countries: Putin never attempted to invade Ukraine before what happened there in 2014. I believe you're smart enough to understand that no matter how profound the intentions of the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 were, it was not the most constitutional change of power to take place. It was chaotic and crowd-fueled. In the eyes of Putin, the western politicians (who were very vocal supporters of the Ukrainian revolution) staged the whole thing to get Russian navy base out of Crimea. He responded with a nearly full scale war. I am not giving his actions any justification. I'm just pointing that he had co-existed peacefully not only with a heavily pro-Russian President Yanukovich, but he also didn't think of waging war against Ukrain when it was ruled by a clearly pro-European and pro-western President Yuschenko.  

And finally, about him deserving or not deserving the treatment the western countries are giving him now. I think the EU and the USA should be more clear about what sort of partner they want Putin to be. As I've mentioned before, they've got partners like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who are not the most progressive countries in terms of human rights, but who are their close economic allies. For some reason, they (USA and EU) are not OK with Russia getting the same treatment - they want it to be more human rights oriented than Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but they aren't offering Russia the same level of economic partnership as they do to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. That's where the dissonance happens. And when we (Russia and EU) had closer economic relations (trade and investment), the sitaution with minorities and human rights watch was better in Russia.   

[lego 44,165]

6 hours ago, bumblebee said:

What worries me is the fact that some European leaders have already labeled him as an "outcast", setting a dangerous trend on the isolation of Russia.

 

5 hours ago, Simon said:

Don't you think he deserves it though? For the way he treats minorities and invades countries?

 

 

Nnnn bookmarking this.