2016 Presidential Early Voting Updates

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2 minutes ago, Lion Heart said:

 

 

Has it been like this since early voting started in Nevada?

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3 minutes ago, ZacharyMark said:

Has it been like this since early voting started in Nevada?

 Im not sure if I understand your question.

Early voting in NV is overwhelmingly favoring Clinton. Today is the last day to early vote there and there are 1000s of people still waiting in line to vote.

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Just now, Lion Heart said:

 Im not sure if I understand your question.

Early voting in NV is overwhelmingly favoring Clinton. Today is the last day to early vote there and there are 1000s of people still waiting in line to vote.

Just based on your posts it sounds like this is the first time a large amount of people came out to vote

[Lion Heart 15,041]

5 minutes ago, ZacharyMark said:

Just based on your posts it sounds like this is the first time a large amount of people came out to vote

Oh. Generally speaking, early voting has exceeded 2012 levels in almost all states except Iowa I think. As for NV, there is just a lot of buzz bc: a.) NV could decide the election and b.) there's still lots of people waiting to vote- and today is the last day to vote.

 

(Different county).

 

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1 minute ago, Lion Heart said:

Oh. Generally speaking, early voting has exceeded 2012 levels in almost all states except Iowa I think. As for NV, there is just a lot of buzz bc: a.) NV could decide the election and b.) there's still lots of people waiting to vote- and today is the last day to vote.

 

(Different county).

 

Do we know how many total D vs R votes there are.

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8 minutes ago, ZacharyMark said:

Do we know how many total D vs R votes there are.

Not exactly but check this out and follow him on Twitter: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-stability-de_b_12723188.html

On Nevada: 

Nevada has yet to report up-to-date numbers for all counties, but two important counties, Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) are reporting Saturday early voting data. To gauge the effect Comey’s letter, I focus on the in-person votes since ballots in the mail lag events.

In Clark, registered Democrats lead Republicans by 3,666 in-person early votes cast on Friday, and by 4,135 on Saturday. Both parties fell off their 2012 pace from Friday to Saturday. Democrats were 813 ahead of 2012 in-person votes cast on Friday and 113 behind on Saturday. Republicans were 805 ahead on Friday and 460 ahead on Saturday.

In Washoe, 2012 same-day comparison data are unavailable at this time (due to a bad link on Washoe’s election website). Registered Democrats led Republicans by a mere 20 in-person early votes cast on Friday and 18 on Saturday. Washoe Republicans led Democrats by 880 mail and in-person early votes in 2012, but Democrats are leading by 2,507 so far in 2016.

The data are mixed. In Clark, both parties realized a decrease in voting activity from Friday to Saturday, with Democrats dropping off more than Republicans. In Washoe, Democrats appear to continue to exceed their 2012 levels even on Saturday.

Where does Nevada stand overall? We don’t have complete reporting statistics for the state since three small counties have not reported since Wednesday. That said, Nevada’s early voting looks encouraging for Clinton. Obama won the state by 6.7 percentage points in 2012. So, far 7.4 percentage points more Democrats have voted by mail or in-person statewide. At the end of 2012, Democrats outpaced Republicans by 6.8 percentage points (a same-day statewide comparison is unavailable). Clinton has some cushion to give up here, so more Trump supporters need to come out in the week ahead.

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He updates every Sunday I think, so this post above was for the week ending on 10/30.

EDIT: @ZacharyMark   The HuffPo article comes from this: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

 

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There's still hope in Ohio  

 

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51 minutes ago, Lion Heart said:

 

Which way are Independents swaying though?

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3 hours ago, Lion Heart said:

 

So how are early voting numbers indicative or correlated to final numbers? Couldn't this entirely flip on Tuesday? I'm asking because I honestly don't know  

 

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1 minute ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

So how are early voting numbers indicative or correlated to final numbers? Couldn't this entirely flip on Tuesday? I'm asking because I honestly don't know  

 

Well one important thing is that the total of votes so far in Florida has already passed the total amount in 2012. Another factor is which way the Independent voters swayed. Florida might be decided within 1% of less of the vote I'm guessing. 

But yes, election day votes might be overwhelmingly R, but you never know. I'm not sure what the statistics are on whether one party might vote earlier than the other. I think most analysts are just waiting until election day because it's so close.

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3 hours ago, ZacharyMark said:

Which way are Independents swaying though?

I don't know honestly. I assumed they voted for Johnson.

1 hour ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

So how are early voting numbers indicative or correlated to final numbers? Couldn't this entirely flip on Tuesday? I'm asking because I honestly don't know  

Early voting is indicative of voter enthusiasm and it gives us an idea of what to expect on Election Day. Is it possible for a bunch of Trump supporters to show up on ED and completely flip Florida? Well yes, but that's assuming they registered on time. 

But it's really for the campaigns for them to see where they should spend the last few days/ weeks campaigning. Here's this: 

 

5. How does this affect campaigning?

The more votes are cast before Nov. 8, the more work Clinton and Donald Trump will have wrapped up by Election Day. As early voting expert Paul Gronke told NPR, that changes campaign strategy.

"This is going to change the dynamics in [early voting] states so that you will expect to see early rallies timed when the early voting period opens up, likely in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina," he said. "The candidates' travel schedule will reflect this, because they want to follow up that kind of enthusiasm and get people to the polls right away."

Because Florida and Ohio have heavy early voting, Trump and Clinton will want to hit those states first.

Pennsylvania, meanwhile, requires people to have an excuse to vote absentee, meaning most people have to wait until Election Day to vote. So it makes sense that Clinton has been pushing early voting in Florida this week, while Trump and Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Kaine are swinging through Ohio; it makes more sense to be there now.

They can hit up places like Philadelphia later.

http://www.npr.org/2016/10/28/499492832/5-questions-about-early-voting-answered