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US Shale To Rebound As Price Hits $60/Barrel


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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/01/oil-hedging-idUSL2N0X51HP20150501

 

As the price of oil hits $60 a barrel, more wells become economically viable opening the door for more investment and growth in US shale production which began declining as of last month

 

Improved technologies which have increased recovery rates helped reduce costs a bit. It could also help insure the energy boom until 2017-2018 as many experts believe

 

However due to lack of recoverable reserves and fast pace extraction and fast depleation of the most productive wells (refered to as sweet spots), unless technology improves further to unlock more reserves, by 2017 or 2019 at the latest the US is likely to go back into declining production no matter how high the price of oil is

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Woolfsmck

There are numerous untapped and under developed oil deposits in the U.S.  California has a ban on development right now and there are large reserves off shore and in shale there.  The Bakken will likely be productive for at least 20 years according to my sources.

like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true
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Computer

We need a better long term domestic energy source but I guess this is good for now.

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barcodemonster

Does this mean the price will drop?

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Economy
 

 

There are numerous untapped and under developed oil deposits in the U.S.  California has a ban on development right now and there are large reserves off shore and in shale there.  The Bakken will likely be productive for at least 20 years according to my sources.

The longevity isnt being put at question. When the US will hit its maximum rate of extraction will

 

The sweet spots are being drilled right now in the baken and in some other formations. These are the lowest cost and most productive wells

Shale fields are quick to develop but also quick to depleate... You have to keep reinvesting in new drilling sites to maintain production...

 

now as the sweet productive spots quickly depleate, relaining sources of oil will requires more drilling and larger investments to get the same rate of production and you get higher operational costs as a result. These sweet spots are just a fraction of the reserves

 

Even so its expected production will keep rising until 2017 to 2019 but then plateu, and then begin a terminal decline... Also keep in mind, shale must also replace conventional oil production which continues to fall so even at plateu from shale, overall oil production would decline

 

This isnt surprising... The US is the worlds 2nd largest producer at 9.4 million barrels a day, and current recoverable reserves at not that huge so a peak in a few years isnt inplausible

 

of course id count on extraction technology to unlock new reserves and improve recovery rates...

 

but thats what people expected here in Canada... In 2003 our reserves surged to 170 Billion barrels after oil sands became "extractible". Thats still a small portion of whats in place and industry scientists said they were working on techbologies to improve extraction further and that Canadas reserves would jump to 315 billion barels and wed be #1 in the world in reserves...

 

12 years later we in 2015, that technology still isnt complete :awkney: 

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