Variety: Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actress

[Lanadelduck 1,921]

On 11/21/2024 at 12:58 PM, bionic said:

really don't see ariana getting nominated

Have you seen wicked? I was completely skeptical about her casting. She was absolutely perfect.

[bionic 41,834]

2 hours ago, Lanadelduck said:

Have you seen wicked? I was completely skeptical about her casting. She was absolutely perfect.

see my comment here

 

[AMRer 2,748]

5 hours ago, dimitristhe said:

In my honest opinion, FAD is just a misstep in her acting career.

Such a bold statement for someone who has not even seen the movie 

As a fan you should have your own opinions and not base them on what other people think 

[dimitristhe 1,544]

2 hours ago, AMRer said:

Such a bold statement for someone who has not even seen the movie 

As a fan you should have your own opinions and not base them on what other people think 

I just said due to the overall negative reception it can be considered a misstep. Like it or not, it had mixed to negative critical reception and was a box office bomb. I'm only judging the reception, not the movie itself. 

[StrawberryBlond 13,996]

17 hours ago, Thomas P said:

But this hasn’t been the case for Wicked. I agree with a lot of other movie musicals, but Wicked is being pegged as something different. 
Also, I can say after having seen the full film on Wednesday, it’s not cheesy, and there’s no way it’ll be polarizing. Similar theatre experience to Barbie. 

How is it something different? It's the same story and songs as the original stage show. What I mean by cheesy and polarising is that if you're not a fan of musical theatre, you'll hate it. I've only heard 2 songs from it before and I quite like Defying Gravity, hate Popular and I just heard a snippet of The Wizard And I yesterday and it sounded like exactly the kind of stage song that hits my ear all wrong. It sounds like it's going to have the kind of songs that people will either love or hate. And, speaking as someone who saw Barbie, as much as I liked it, it was a super polarising movie. Those who hated it really detested it. It obviously worked really well in its marketing to its intended demographic but those outside of it really didn't get it. I think this movie may be the same. I someone don't think those who dislike musicals will have their minds changed. And if they don't like it, there's no way they'll go to see part 2. 

[HIM820 1,748]

17 minutes ago, StrawberryBlond said:

How is it something different? It's the same story and songs as the original stage show. What I mean by cheesy and polarising is that if you're not a fan of musical theatre, you'll hate it. I've only heard 2 songs from it before and I quite like Defying Gravity, hate Popular and I just heard a snippet of The Wizard And I yesterday and it sounded like exactly the kind of stage song that hits my ear all wrong. It sounds like it's going to have the kind of songs that people will either love or hate. And, speaking as someone who saw Barbie, as much as I liked it, it was a super polarising movie. Those who hated it really detested it. It obviously worked really well in its marketing to its intended demographic but those outside of it really didn't get it. I think this movie may be the same. I someone don't think those who dislike musicals will have their minds changed. And if they don't like it, there's no way they'll go to see part 2. 

Aren't we talking about nomination possibilities? Barbie may have been polarizing but it still got tons of noms and even got America Ferrara in supporting actress. I don't mean this in a rude way, but do you really not know that Wicked is most likely going to get a Best Picture nom? It's on a majority of lists at this point, even from naysayers, so I don't see that changing. I highly doubt it would get into BP without any other above the line noms, and looking at precedent, supporting actress is the most likely. In this century eight women have been nominated in supporting for a musical. Four of those came from a movie also in BP. Because of her reviews, Ariana would most likely be that other nomination. 

It also helps that people within the industry are championing her performance, not just the public or critics. When she's already being compared to prior nominees at early industry screenings (Madeline Kahn, Barbra Streisand, Audrey Hepburn) then thats already a good sign the ball is rolling. 

[StrawberryBlond 13,996]

54 minutes ago, HIM820 said:

Aren't we talking about nomination possibilities? Barbie may have been polarizing but it still got tons of noms and even got America Ferrara in supporting actress. I don't mean this in a rude way, but do you really not know that Wicked is most likely going to get a Best Picture nom? It's on a majority of lists at this point, even from naysayers, so I don't see that changing. I highly doubt it would get into BP without any other above the line noms, and looking at precedent, supporting actress is the most likely. In this century eight women have been nominated in supporting for a musical. Four of those came from a movie also in BP. Because of her reviews, Ariana would most likely be that other nomination. 

It also helps that people within the industry are championing her performance, not just the public or critics. When she's already being compared to prior nominees at early industry screenings (Madeline Kahn, Barbra Streisand, Audrey Hepburn) then thats already a good sign the ball is rolling. 

Barbie was a different kind of movie, though. It wasn't a traditional idea of musical and certainly didn't win a lot of its nominations. And no, I don't think Wicked is going to get nominated for best picture, especially because like I keep saying, it's a 2 parter, which puts the academy off. I think to get a nomination, you still have to have credibility as an actress and I don't really think Ariana has that. It's notoriously difficult for singers to get acting Oscars and I don't Ariana will be on that level. If Gaga couldn't do it, I don't think she could.

Maybe I'm totally wrong and I'll admit it if I am. But bookmark me. 

[PartySick 144,827]

14 hours ago, dimitristhe said:

I refuse to see the movie after all the bad press and negative reception by the GP and the critics alike. I just don't want to be disappointed. I have watched ASIB and HOG and she was spectacular. She is indeed an amazing actress, as much as an amazing singer/songwriter.

In my honest opinion, FAD is just a misstep in her acting career. Look at Madonna, Mariah or Jlo, they had their flop moments, but in some of their roles were spectacular. Well, not Madonna but you get my point. 

Even if HOG wasn't a good movie, Gaga shined with her acting. Dramas are definitely her thing, Marry The Night music video was the first time we truly saw her potential as an actress. She should be very cautious with her next acting role and avoid musicals for a while.

Her not getting a nomination at the Oscars is not a bad thing. Nobody is nominated with every role they play. I will be very glad and proud for her if she manages to get one more with her third major movie.

Now let's focus on the real deal, DWAS, Disease and LG7. Grab them Grammys queen.

Joker is a great movie, you should give it a chance some day.

But yeah, critically speaking Joker's her first, and hopefully only flop. I still loved it though.

I need her spooky ass in an Alien movie though. There's a new TV series, a follow up to Romulus in the works, TWO predator movies coming out next year with minor Alien crossovers, let's goooo.

[HIM820 1,748]

1 hour ago, StrawberryBlond said:

Barbie was a different kind of movie, though. It wasn't a traditional idea of musical and certainly didn't win a lot of its nominations. And no, I don't think Wicked is going to get nominated for best picture, especially because like I keep saying, it's a 2 parter, which puts the academy off. I think to get a nomination, you still have to have credibility as an actress and I don't really think Ariana has that. It's notoriously difficult for singers to get acting Oscars and I don't Ariana will be on that level. If Gaga couldn't do it, I don't think she could.

Maybe I'm totally wrong and I'll admit it if I am. But bookmark me. 

I feel like we are talking about 10 different things here and the criteria keeps changing. I never said anything about winning anything. That’s a whole different convo in comparison to other films in a specific season. We are talking about nominations. Barbie isn’t a musical at all. But you brought up the comparison of Barbie being polarizing, what you expect Wicked to be. My point was that even though Barbie might have been polarizing in your opinion, it still got nominations- including best picture. Dune Part 2 is expected to be nominated this year after already being nominated prior for Part 1. The academy nominated the first film in the Lord of the Rings trilogy for BP already knowing the other two were filmed and on their way. It’s not like this hasn’t happened before. 
 

With the Ariana nomination argument I’m confused. What was Jennifer Hudson’s prior acting credibility before she was nominated and won her Oscar? Gaga was nominated for her role, so she did do it. Confused about that statement. I understand popstars get nominated in a straight acting movie would be difficult, but there are too many examples to site for musicals. 

[StrawberryBlond 13,996]

4 minutes ago, HIM820 said:

I feel like we are talking about 10 different things here and the criteria keeps changing. I never said anything about winning anything. That’s a whole different convo in comparison to other films in a specific season. We are talking about nominations. Barbie isn’t a musical at all. But you brought up the comparison of Barbie being polarizing, what you expect Wicked to be. My point was that even though Barbie might have been polarizing in your opinion, it still got nominations- including best picture. Dune Part 2 is expected to be nominated this year after already being nominated prior for Part 1. The academy nominated the first film in the Lord of the Rings trilogy for BP already knowing the other two were filmed and on their way. It’s not like this hasn’t happened before. 
 

With the Ariana nomination argument I’m confused. What was Jennifer Hudson’s prior acting credibility before she was nominated and won her Oscar? Gaga was nominated for her role, so she did do it. Confused about that statement. I understand popstars get nominated in a straight acting movie would be difficult, but there are too many examples to site for musicals. 

I am talking about nominations. Wicked isn't the kind of movie that gets acting nominations. It just isn't. Best picture tends to be for serious films, not musicals. I'm not saying this kinda thing hasn't happened before but it's rare. Highly unlikely it would happen for 2 movies consisting of two parts back-to-back. 

I'm saying that Ariana isn't credible as she's only known for acting in tv shows aimed at kids and teens. That's the same reason Selena Gomez also struggled for years to be taken seriously and is why she might ultimately struggle for acting nominations here too. Where you made your start in acting is a major stumbling block for many. No prior acting experience can actually be better than making your start with tween tv acting. And it's not that musical roles can't get nominated but Wicked just doesn't seem like the type that gets nominated. 

Just my opinion based on what I've observed. 

[HIM820 1,748]

17 minutes ago, StrawberryBlond said:

I am talking about nominations. Wicked isn't the kind of movie that gets acting nominations. It just isn't. Best picture tends to be for serious films, not musicals. 

I think you’re coming from a place of not liking this specific musical or just not knowing much about it. Though it’s bright, funny and colorful at times, the movie pretty much starts out on a serious note and ends on one as well. It actually has a pretty climatic dramatic ending. Maybe you consider all musicals not serious? Which to each their own, but I can’t argue someone with that opinion. They won’t see it any other way. 
 

Imo Selena has other hurdles to the nomination that pertain more so to her specific movie and the size of her role. 

Edited yesterday at 02:26 AM by HIM820