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AOTY: Mayhem and its realistic chances


andy232000
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James Gibson
2 hours ago, Anderson123 said:

They've added Kanye's Donda and Taylor's Evermore to Album of the Year just for ratings when those 2 albums didn't have enough votes to be there so there's some manipulation. Not sure about ASIB, I think it just went by voters' head and didn't make it for real but it was a surprise.

Those were different years. In Donda's year there was no committee so they just added the 9th and 10th most voted to the lineup in addition to the top 8.

In ASIB's year the panel could change the nominees entirely based on the pool of 15 most voted. I highly doubt ASIB didn't make top 15 when ARUTW got SOTY. It felt like a conscious decision to leave veterans like Gaga (and Taylor with Lover who also got a SOTY nod) out of AOTY to leave room for newer artists like Billie, Lizzo, Lil Nas X who got more proeminence that ceremony.

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James Gibson
1 hour ago, andy232000 said:

This year is shaping up to be incredibly weak in Pop fields. If they can replicate a similar LFS Campaign we should be golden. Its almost impossible that no Pop records are nominated for aoty, and even with Miley Cyruses and Ed Sheeran imminent releases, out of sheer name Gaga is still pulling up ahead in Pop, 

I agree, the only major artist I can see now being a threat to Gaga in Pop Album specifically is Harry. Unless there's a breakthrough artist this year like Sabrina.

In AOTY however truly think Kendrick has the upper hand with his amount of hype, success and acclaim specially post halftime show. But Gaga should have no problem being nomd atm.

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Tony31511

She will win something next year. It may not be AOTY but she has a strong chance of winning in other categories. I think all the huge performances in the next few months will be her way of campaigning the album and getting the attention of Grammy voters.

But if there continues to not be any major pop competition this year, she will definitely sweep at the 2026 Grammys. It will finally be her time to shine.

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tlittlemonster
15 minutes ago, Tony31511 said:

She will win something next year. It may not be AOTY but she has a strong chance of winning in other categories. I think all the huge performances in the next few months will be her way of campaigning the album and getting the attention of Grammy voters.

But if there continues to not be any major pop competition this year, she will definitely sweep at the 2026 Grammys. It will finally be her time to shine.

I think so far the strongest competition pop wise is Harry Styles

Hoping his new album flops 👀

When is the official Grammy's cut off date?

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andy232000
1 minute ago, tlittlemonster said:

I think so far the strongest competition pop wise is Harry Styles

Hoping his new album flops 👀

When is the official Grammy's cut off date?

August 30, 2024. Little over 5 months to go…

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  • 2 weeks later...
andy232000

Golderby published their initial early AOTY predictions for both nominations and win

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/grammy-nominations-2026-predictions/

Exactly like I predicted: GNX front runner, Mayhem Runner up. 10 month to go for voting process to finalize.

Already at #2, Gaga has enough time to pull off this aoty win if she plays the cards right with the Era. 

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gagzus

It still annoys me that if it wasn’t for Slant we could’ve had Mayhem be nearly 90 on Metacritic and it’d be a shoe-in for AOTY. The fact that PITCHFORK gave it a higher score than Kendrick too bodes well to me.

Edited by gagzus
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Nagini

All she needs is one smash to seriously put her on the map. Hope Kendrick's album/singles fizzle by the time December comes around with Gaga picking up momentum. Luther may continue to stick around with TV Off being another cute hit for him, though I can't stand that awful Not Like Us song. She deserves this so much, way more than Kendrick's overpraised and overrated work. 

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Nagini

I hope the entire pop wing and production body carries her through the finish line, but the Grammys did add a ton more POC/hip-hop voters as of last year... so maybe some of this cancels out. 

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andy232000
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Nagini said:

I hope the entire pop wing and production body carries her through the finish line, but the Grammys did add a ton more POC/hip-hop voters as of last year... so maybe some of this cancels out. 

While POC have incremented, that doesn't necessarily mean that they will vote hip hop. I also think they’ve made efforts to increase DEI voters. Queer POC could still vote Gaga. But I agree that even if Pop is still the larger voter pool, they made a big change last year. 
 

Gaga really needs to keep this era alive all the way through December to make sure she can get the pop voters to rally behind her and campaign to get as much people from other voting pulls to cancel out Kendrick. Really hoping she pulls its. 

Edited by andy232000
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  • 4 weeks later...
andy232000
Posted (edited)

A new small update! 

Golderby’s combined odds were recently updated, and while Kendrick is still the front runner, his vantage point has decreased. Elton John’s & Brandi Carlile’s album also decreased.

Gaga, on the other hand, went up after her Coachella weekends!

Current odds of winning AOTY:

1.) Kendrick Lamar’s:  13.3%
2.) Lady Gaga: 10.00%
3.) Elton & Brandi: 8.70%

Edited by andy232000
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AVeryGagaHolyDick
On 3/17/2025 at 1:53 AM, Ladle Ghoulash said:

I mean 1989 won over TPAB (a far superior and far more culturally significant album), so truly anything can happen. Also the Midnights sneak made me lol because we can’t be out here acting like Mayhem doesn’t blow those 1989/Reputation reheats out of the water :icant:

What is TPAB?

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Ladle Ghoulash
29 minutes ago, AVeryGagaHolyDick said:

What is TPAB?

To Pimp a Butterfly - Kendrick Lamar 

We have forgotten our public MANNERS
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tlittlemonster

1898 won in 2016...

The Grammy's voting pool changed drastically since then

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BornAsUnic0rn
On 3/16/2025 at 12:15 PM, Cpeer said:

It’s all about longevity now. 
I think a nomination is almost guaranteed, but for any chance of winning she needs to get more hits and keep the momentum till fall/ winter. 

Exactly. She needs to be able to maintain the album campaign until at least September/Oktober. And no, the tour if done like a standard tour is not enough. If she does something like a „surprise song“ every concert, or changes her costumes regularly like Bey with renaissance, things like that give virality and thus hype/visibility that can go beyond the fandom/twitter popheads. Also this is the time to do things like an iconic VMA performance/selected and big memorable televised performances throughout the next months. Ariana‘s live session for eternal sunshine also comes to mind as something to keep hype up. Push organic trends on TikTok as they naturally happen & evolve to enhance them further.. Have more singles and music videos planned.. (Early October release/push of one of the darker songs with a visual should be a no brainer, maybe aesthetically connected to Wednesday if done right.)  

All of these things are ideas and examples of successful marketing strategies, not demands and pretentious Little Manager talk. I think Gaga‘s team is generally very successful in their marketing, they so far always achieved at least 1 US Top 10 for every era, all her albums did at least totally well for their time and since 2014 I‘m incredibly happy with how she and her team handle her career and promotional campaigns. But I feel like sometimes they are not exactly reaching the full potential of a record, which I believe was partially because they simply didn‘t want to, because compared to everything until ARTPOP they put Gaga‘s health & happiness before anything else, as they should, and they mastered promoting more minimalistic and sophisticated compared to the overexposed, draining and unhealthy machine that was running until 2014. :abra:

But I truly believe MAYHEM is THAT record, it is the most reflective of her as an artist, it is just AMAZING and it plays to every single one of her several many versatile strengths in a way she wasn’t yet achieved, so I believe it is THE album to really give the full shot and aim for the top, and I would be so happy and proud of her and her team if they pull it off. For me it isn’t about bragging rights and being a chart addicted stan, it‘s about loving this woman, what she‘s given me and her artistry, and wanting to see her get the flowers she deserves for being greatness, inspiration and a beacon for the world for 17 ****ing years. And MAYHEM is really the album that deserves every success it can get, so I would love for Gaga and her team to reach for the stars and again, really go balls to the walls, even if they end up losing.

The goal is getting to experience the ride, not the price. :kiss:

Edited by BornAsUnic0rn
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