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Russia reduces gas flow to Germany


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4 minutes ago, Lady Gaga said:

No. In fact the ones benefiting from the sanctions are China and India

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/world/asia/asia-is-buying-discounted-russian-oil-making-up-for-europes-cutbacks.html

If you think the sanctions will damage Putin, you are wrong. He will find someone else to sell his oil. Remember that only USA and Europe are sanctioning him, the rest of the world is there profiting from this situation. It's the Europe that will the most damaged, not Russia. 

 

China and India are buying russian oil with 35$ discount compared to pre-war level. As soon as energy prices go back to norm (they're currently decreasing), Russia's income from energy which represents more than 50% of its budget, will plummet.

Please don't try to pretend to be smarter than economists who study this stuff for a living.

Edited by Dennis
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1 hour ago, Dennis said:

Energy sanctions are very much needed and are the cornerstone of any strategy aimed at long term damage for Russian economy. I suggest following this guy, who posts detailed insights on this issue:

htttps://www.twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF

Asia will have to co-operate too for them to actually work to any major extent and they aren't doing squat about it 

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1 hour ago, Dennis said:

China and India are buying russian oil with 35$ discount compared to pre-war level. As soon as energy prices go back to norm (they're currently decreasing), Russia's income from energy which represents more than 50% of its budget, will plummet.

Please don't try to pretend to be smarter than economists who study this stuff for a living.

$30 discount was the highest it gotten to its not what the average has been. Just this last week India was buying oil from them for only $10 discount. Hypothetically even if it was always $30, The war increased oil by more than this amount so on a net basis they are still making more

 

Second ur argument to not "pretend to be smarter than economists who study this stuff for a living" is kinda a hollow argument at best. Economists never unanimously agree with eachother on just about anything so taking economists who agree with ur opinion hardly proves anything. There's plenty of analysts who disagree that the shunning of oil from the West are having much of an impact as long as their alternative buyers continue. 

 

Personally I agree sanctions on Oil would do wonders but again we need Asia's co-operation for it to harm Russia more than the West and it doesn't look like we're gonna get that co-operation

 

I am a little more in favour of Gas sanctions tho. Although it will hurt Europe a lot at least it's not as easy to reroute gas as it is oil so for the foreseeable future that would actually starve Russia of revenue that couldn't be easily replaced quickly

Edited by Economy
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7 hours ago, Economy said:

$30 discount was the highest it gotten to its not what the average has been. Just this last week India was buying oil from them for only $10 discount. Hypothetically even if it was always $30, The war increased oil by more than this amount so on a net basis they are still making more

 

Second ur argument to not "pretend to be smarter than economists who study this stuff for a living" is kinda a hollow argument at best. Economists never unanimously agree with eachother on just about anything so taking economists who agree with ur opinion hardly proves anything. There's plenty of analysts who disagree that the shunning of oil from the West are having much of an impact as long as their alternative buyers continue. 

 

Personally I agree sanctions on Oil would do wonders but again we need Asia's co-operation for it to harm Russia more than the West and it doesn't look like we're gonna get that co-operation

 

I am a little more in favour of Gas sanctions tho. Although it will hurt Europe a lot at least it's not as easy to reroute gas as it is oil so for the foreseeable future that would actually starve Russia of revenue that couldn't be easily replaced quickly

It's because it's true.

People should take into account what experts say instead of come up with their own unfounded conclusions.

Russia cut off gas to Germany not because gas was sanctioned but because they consider germany hostile as a result of its support for Ukraine. Gas is the only thing that wasn't sanctioned and yet Russia weaponized it anyway. 

As for "we shouldn't have sanctioned putin" nonsense, let's be a little bit patient. Oil prices are collapsing. This is the first time oil price see a decline in their monthly changes (since November).
 

Global recession would hurt Russia the hardest you know why? Because as I said more than 50% of Russia's revenue is from energy exports. And you know what happens to energy prices when recession happens? They collapse. See what happened in 2009 crisis. So Russia's revenue will shrink considerably.

Western economies are diversified enough to sustain a recession, but Russia is practically a petro-state. They need high oil prices to have a profitable budget. And that's why Putin whenever oil prices go down, he creates some instability to get them up. This however will backfire terribly on him.

So before we question our support for Ukraine through sanctions, let's sit back a little and let things take their time. As I said a recession was probably inevitable with or without ukraine war. But with these sanctions in place, such recession will hurt Russia much more than any other country.

This is the CEO of Russia's biggest bank saying that it'll take 10 years for russian economy to recover from sanctions:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/17/russian-economy-faces-10-years-of-recession-without-reforms-sberbank-ceo-a78031

Edited by Dennis
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11 hours ago, Dennis said:

It's because it's true.

People should take into account what experts say instead of come up with their own unfounded conclusions.

 

I just explained why that doesn't mean squat to me. Experts never unanimously agree with eachother. Just because there's experts that agree with u doesn't mean anything. There's analysts that disagree also

11 hours ago, Dennis said:

 


As for "we shouldn't have sanctioned putin" nonsense, let's be a little bit patient. Oil prices are collapsing. This is the first time oil price see a decline in their monthly changes (since November).
 

Global recession would hurt Russia the hardest you know why? Because as I said more than 50% of Russia's revenue is from energy exports. And you know what happens to energy prices when recession happens? They collapse. See what happened in 2009 crisis. So Russia's revenue will shrink considerably.

Western economies are diversified enough to sustain a recession, but Russia is practically a petro-state. They need high oil prices to have a profitable budget. And that's why Putin whenever oil prices go down, he creates some instability to get them up. This however will backfire terribly on him.

 

Then that will be a recession hitting their oil revenues not the oil sanctions :toofunny:

 

In fact whatever oil falls to if we get a recession there will likely be an oil premium price still in there that offsets any discount they have to sell it to

 

Let's not act like the oil sanctions really are starving then of the revenue we expected it to. They were able to reroute most of their production. The West still took more damage from that particular sanction than Russia did.

 

U may be right that in time it will hit them harder so let's see what happens. But so far that particular sanction hasn't been like the other Sanctions, it has hit the West Harder than Russia itself

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1 minute ago, pachinko said:

How does this impact me as an American? 

In the immediate term not directly but a shortage in Europe will lead to higher prices in North America also.

 

Atm the correlation in prices is still a little bit muted because they are still trying to build more export capacity... As in only so much natural gas can get out of North America because of limited infrastructure built for it 

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Dennis
11 hours ago, Economy said:

Let's not act like the oil sanctions really are starving then of the revenue we expected it to. They were able to reroute most of their production. The West still took more damage from that particular sanction than Russia did.

Do you understand why they were able to reroute (75% not all, and this is according to their government) of their oil exports? It's thanks to the fact that Greek tankers are still allowed to carry russian oil. They carry roughly half of Russian exports. Greece blocked a measure to ban EU-owned ships from transporting russian oil. But the EU still has an insurance ban that could go into effect within 6 months.

So when you get into the details, the sanctions are not hitting russia hard enough because they actually don't go far enough and EU is not tightening the screws fully.

The issue isn't with sanctioning Russian oil. The issue is that you need to close the loopholes.

You will not see the full effect of the sanctions on Oil, until the insurance ban kicks in.

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Economy
1 hour ago, Dennis said:

Do you understand why they were able to reroute (75% not all, and this is according to their government) of their oil exports? It's thanks to the fact that Greek tankers are still allowed to carry russian oil. They carry roughly half of Russian exports. Greece blocked a measure to ban EU-owned ships from transporting russian oil. But the EU still has an insurance ban that could go into effect within 6 months.

So when you get into the details, the sanctions are not hitting russia hard enough because they actually don't go far enough and EU is not tightening the screws fully.

The issue isn't with sanctioning Russian oil. The issue is that you need to close the loopholes.

You will not see the full effect of the sanctions on Oil, until the insurance ban kicks in.

I think it will be much more effective if everyone co-operates fully ideally with more of Asia co-operating too and also the loopholes like u said

 

Cuz half measures like so far don't end up doing as much. If they already re-routed 75% now in only 2-3 months they can certainly workout more logistics to reroute more... Add the war premium to Oil Prices and that helps offset most of what they are loosing due to any lost volume

 

As it stands so far the Oil Embargo hasn't hurt them anywhere near the extent it was supposed to. It either has to get tighter further or barely bother. Halfway measures don't work here

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FfFfFfFF
3 hours ago, Economy said:

I think it will be much more effective if everyone co-operates fully ideally with more of Asia co-operating too and also the loopholes like u said

 

Cuz half measures like so far don't end up doing as much. If they already re-routed 75% now in only 2-3 months they can certainly workout more logistics to reroute more... Add the war premium to Oil Prices and that helps offset most of what they are loosing due to any lost volume

 

As it stands so far the Oil Embargo hasn't hurt them anywhere near the extent it was supposed to. It either has to get tighter further or barely bother. Halfway measures don't work here

A counter argument one would may have is that China, North Korea, Iran would absolutely never join the West in sanctioning Russia, only India perhaps if it it's scared of China to the extend that seeks help from the US again. But I don't it's fair to say that we should not impose sanctions because the world will never be unanimous in imposing them.

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Economy
6 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

A counter argument one would may have is that China, North Korea, Iran would absolutely never join the West in sanctioning Russia, only India perhaps if it it's scared of China to the extend that seeks help from the US again. But I don't it's fair to say that we should not impose sanctions because the world will never be unanimous in imposing them.

Well if it can be done in a way to have more effect on them than us sure. It just seems like so far it's been kinda the opposite (not sanctions in general but oil specifically)

 

Perhaps in time...

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phillipaf
On 6/23/2022 at 7:40 PM, Lady Gaga said:

That's why sanctioning Russia was a really bad idea  

I absolutely get where you‘re going with this - and i don‘t disagree. 

However, sanctioning Russia was the appropriate thing to do. Idk who said it but some politicians said in March that if we won‘t cut back and take losses through those sanctions (e.g. that alert status we have rn in Germany), then we don‘t value our or anybodys freedok and sovereignty. And i agree with that point. I‘m hurt financially through rising gas prices etc and the German government is doing a terrible job at compensating that especially for seniors and students but I cannot think of anything else they should have done. Sanctioning Russia was the only viable option, I guess. 

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Mother of Puppies
On 6/23/2022 at 8:19 PM, Dennis said:

Yes let's just let him kill civilians and children and wreak havoc.

Sadly he’s continuing to do so… with or without gas exports. (And we’re bound to pay for the gas we don’t get for a long time because of contracts. I wish we could just breach those contracts. That lil sucker. I hope he’ll burn in hell)

 

 

You can call me Lady MOP
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