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Recession Expected, Worst Of It In Europe... CEOs Agree With Analysts


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Economy
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, AbhainnTirim said:

Nobody is talking about “prevention”, and I hope I made that clear in my last. This is about softening the blow in the short term. 
 

The facts are showing that sales in the UK took a drop of 1.4% after the month of February this year, according to the ONS, as a result of limited purchasing power, which will hamper COVID recovery and disproportionately impact small businesses who are already struggling with rising overheads. There’s also talk that fuel poverty could be as high as 40% now, with many people who are working struggling to pay their bills now, people who normally would earn a decent enough wage to pay for all their necessities. The supply change pressures in areas like natural gas, electricity and oil are now impacting on other industries, such as retail, because of more of people’s money centralising around paying their energy bills, industries that aren’t necessarily experiencing the same constraints (as evidenced by a reduction in sales). It’s imperative that we offset this economic damage in these industries through financial support to protect jobs and wages. 
 

The constraints facing the energy sector will need long term solutions, we can both accept. I willingly will stand corrected, but to me, the issue with the energy prices is that we’re too dependent on particular forms of energy, most notably gas and oil. A long term strategy is needed to develop a wide range of energy sources, like wind, tidal, solar, geo-thermal etc, to remove the focus on gas and oil, expand the capacity of the energy industry and widen choice and competition for consumers. 
 

And, honestly, financially supporting families to pay their energy bills, it goes beyond economics. Is it morally acceptable that we let kids and the elderly sit in freezing houses because Putin’s destroying another nation? Is it fair that people develop respiratory conditions because they can’t get heat as a result of the energy market struggling with supply chain disruption from a pandemic? These are rhetorical questions, if some haven’t noticed. 
 

One solution the Irish government found was by deducting a €200 credit automatically from people’s energy bills, so the money went directly into the energy bills, which I think is a fair compromise. I would’ve preferred more to help offset the cost, most particularly for lower income welfare recipients and pensioners. 

Then we are not in disagreement. As I said, I support assistance on the grounds of helping the most vulnerable

 

My comment was merely to dispute any assertion that it would help the economy in general across the board. As long as we're in a stage where demand exceeds supply in general, cash won't help the economy because you can't boost consumption that is already at maximum of productive capacity, you'll just get even more inflation to offset it (but not equally in proportion for everyone which is why the low income would still benefit from flat rate checks)

 

It may help a little later on once demands starts to fall below capacity but not right at this moment

 

As long as the purpose and goal of any such assistance is understood as merely a means of helping the lowest income it's all good and I do support it, I wasn't suggesting I do not

 

I just don't agree with the economy argument part of it. Given the imbalance that exists right now, it cannot be help with cash

 

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Miss Dolly
20 hours ago, Economy said:

 

@Nathan is right. The dynamics at play are too major and inescapable

 

Bad leaders can make the situation a little worse, but they aren't to blame that it's happening

 

Look at my Country (Canada). We get a lot of offsetting factors right now and are among the best positioned because not only are we more isolated from direct trade with Russia/Ukraine... We also export a lot of comodities that have gone up in price (Oil, Natural Gas, Lumber, Grain, Metals etc) so our exports are on fire right now in those sectors. Our trade surplus is hitting close to all time highs right now, and our budget deficit is falling from all that revenue with the Provinces that export the most like Alberta swinging Tina budget surplus

 

Add to the Trudeau and the Liberals while I don't agree with every single thing they do I think overall they handled the crisis reasonably well and we gave people the most assistance of any major advanced economy running a deficit of 20% of GDP at the peak of the crisis just infusing mass stimulus and checks etc

 

Despite all these advantages in our situation and strong growth of late and lowest unemployment since 1976, Canada is forecast to also join the recession. Maybe not as severely, but it's expected to. Because the disruptions to chains will hurt our industrial sector so much that our high in demand natural resources can't fully compensate for it. And we can't do anything about that fact that supply disruptions are putting the economies capacity at a lower level than it normally would be so we're already overheating with high inflation which will hurt consumer spending

 

You can be in the best if conditions and still slip into this recession

 

You can blame Boris Johnson for making a lot of stuff worse but no leader would have been able to prevent this from hitting the UK. That's just not a reasonable expectation of any leader

Nah, he’s too blame. 

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HorusRa2
Posted (edited)

What makes this recession worse is the fact that it's happening on the heels of a pandemic that many have not recovered from still. It's relative to where people were before it started. 07 into 08 wasnt as bad I feel in that sense despite being more dramatic. 08 was being brought to your knees after standing up. 2022 is being kicked back down after just crawling up off the floor. 

Edited by HorusRa2
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dojo
21 hours ago, Neroneau said:

I will NOT let this affect me :bye:

periawdtt 💅🏻

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TortureMeOnReplay
21 hours ago, TEANUS said:

It’s only gonna get worse especially in the US because we can’t find a good administration. It’s been battle after battle of the evils since Bush

The president is just a figurehead in this. Biden hasn't affected a single economic outcome positively or negatively, because he isnt the one creating or stopping any laws. If bills made it to his desk and he refused to sign them I'd think differently, but there's nothing even making it's way to him. 

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TortureMeOnReplay

I don't have ALL the information, but working for a large American company (in a non-consumer facing role) I can almost safely say that these price increases have a lot less to do with demand than they're trying to make it seem. 

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thatfoxyfeeling

Why does it just feel like my generation keeps getting **** on, when are we gonna do something about the older generations ****ing us over. :patrizia:

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Economy
1 hour ago, HorusRa2 said:

What makes this recession worse is the fact that it's happening on the heels of a pandemic that many have not recovered from still. It's relative to where people were before it started. 07 into 08 wasnt as bad I feel in that sense despite being more dramatic. 08 was being brought to your knees after standing up. 2022 is being kicked back down after just crawling up off the floor. 

At least on the bright side this downturn probably won't be as severe (hopefully)

 

The kinds of imbalances that are building up in the economy suggest a more traditional type recession where demand drops and you get some job losses and an unemployment increase as a result but then go into recovery

 

2008 was a financial crisis that triggered mass deleveraging due to a high debt overhang in private sector... That deleveraging by consumers and companies and lack of liquidity from banks they could lend to add to that made the recovery painfully slow as demand remained depressed for years. Financial crisis that trigger a mass deleveraging cycle tend to last a long time

 

This time around private sector debt is not as severe. At least not in the US so it's unlikely to be as bad

 

In My Country consumer debt is actually way worse than in 2007 and worse than in the US so we're more vulnerable if anything but Canada, Scandinavia and Australia (which all have the same high consumer debt problem) don't represent the world as a whole

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Economy
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TortureMeOnReplay said:

I don't have ALL the information, but working for a large American company (in a non-consumer facing role) I can almost safely say that these price increases have a lot less to do with demand than they're trying to make it seem. 

I think your partially correct... But partially not...

 

Companies will use any excuse to raise prices if they can. That's the dark side of capitalism at work. The greed. They raise prices if they can not just if they need to and if I understood your comment correctly I think that's what ur getting at

 

Nevertheless demand still has to be a factor for big price increases. Normal marketing competition doesn't allow for you to raise prices much if demand doesn't at least match productive capacity throughout the economy as other companies trying to compete and take market share will take advantage and offer cheaper prices

 

Prices surge when demand is high because there's no such thing as real competition, you sell as much as you can even if you raise your prices. It's in times like this that companies can be truly greedy. But demand still has to be there as a factor for them to be able to capitalize on that greed.

 

When the economy is weak and demand is weak, they simply don't have the power to raise prices like that. They will loose business to competitors

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Nathan
3 hours ago, Miss Dolly said:

Nah, he’s too blame. 

Why and how has Boris Johnson created a global recession? 

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Miss Dolly
13 minutes ago, Nathan said:

Why and how has Boris Johnson created a global recession? 

He created the recession in the UK. 

Blue smoke is the heartbreak train
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Nathan
3 minutes ago, Miss Dolly said:

He created the recession in the UK. 

So let me get this right, the whole world is heading into a recession and if Boris Johnson wasn’t in charge the U.K. wouldn’t be?… 

 

Did he also cause the one is 2007? 

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Miss Dolly
3 minutes ago, Nathan said:

So let me get this right, the whole world is heading into a recession and if Boris Johnson wasn’t in charge the U.K. wouldn’t be?… 

 

Did he also cause the one is 2007? 

You can’t change my mind. Sorry. 

Blue smoke is the heartbreak train
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Nathan
Just now, Miss Dolly said:

You can’t change my mind. Sorry. 

Your entitled to your opinion, but you clearly have no understanding of economics.

Boris is garbage, but factually he isn’t causing a global recession. That’s just blind hatred that invalidates other arguments you have regarding Scotland leaving the U.K.

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