Putin invades Ukraine

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There are unconfirmed reports of (US?/ Romanian?) military vehicles moving to Romania's border with Ukraine. It's very unclear what is happening, so is essential to hear what Romania's officials have to say about them.

 

[LilyLark 8,427]

On 4/27/2022 at 2:15 AM, FfFfFfFF said:

Of course, Russia doesn't want to annex territories from neighbouring countries, Romania, in fact, the evil expansionist empire plagging Eastern Europe. Insane.

 

Everyday the Russian State TV and politicians get crazier and crazier. Russia framing Romania as the imperialist power hungry for war is insane. Did you see the newest bit where Margarita Simonyan from RT (crazy b*tch) was going on about how nuclear war wouldn't be so bad?

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1 minute ago, LilyLark said:

Everyday the Russian State TV and politicians get crazier and crazier. Russia framing Romania as the imperialist power hungry for war is insane. Did you see the newest bit where Margarita Simonyan from RT (crazy b*tch) was going on about how nuclear war wouldn't be so bad?

In my understanding the Russian TV was openly talking about nuking New York for a while. The sinking of Moskva was also seen as casus beli for WW3.  It's scarry how they can introduce their population to such concepts, even if unlikely or unrealistical. 

[LilyLark 8,427]

Just now, FfFfFfFF said:

In my understanding the Russian TV was openly talking about nuking New York for a while. The sinking of Moskva was also seen as casus beli for WW3.  It's scarry how they can introduce their population to such concepts, even if unlikely or unrealistical. 

It's resembling North Korea propaganda at this point. Oddly enough, I never thought they would truly go for Moldova because that would bring them so close to Romania....but if they go for Transnistria I can see them going for the entirety of Moldova as they have basically no military whatsoever. Now they are rumbling about Kazakhstan, too.

Seriously feels like he's going to try and snatch up countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union but not in NATO and which don't have a strong military...so Moldova, Kazakhstan, etc. I think he won't try anything with Azerbaijan due to their close relationship with Turkey. But it's wild, they are pretty much getting their as* kicked in Ukraine and yet seem determined to keep on going.

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22 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

It's resembling North Korea propaganda at this point. Oddly enough, I never thought they would truly go for Moldova because that would bring them so close to Romania....but if they go for Transnistria I can see them going for the entirety of Moldova as they have basically no military whatsoever. Now they are rumbling about Kazakhstan, too.

Seriously feels like he's going to try and snatch up countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union but not in NATO and which don't have a strong military...so Moldova, Kazakhstan, etc. I think he won't try anything with Azerbaijan due to their close relationship with Turkey. But it's wild, they are pretty much getting their as* kicked in Ukraine and yet seem determined to keep on going.

Kazahstan is kind of already in Russia's sphere of infuence, being a landlocked country overpowered by Russia (not to say Putin sent its military during the protest which happened here at the start of 2022), many would would call Kazahstan a Russian puppet, in a similar manner to Belarus. Now Russia also mentains troops on Azerbaijani soil, in Nagorno-Karabah and Armenia is more or less in the pocket because of the conflict with Azerbaijan and Russia offering Armenia ''protection''.

This leaves two pro-Western states besides Ukraine: Georgia and Moldova, besides the Baltics which are in NATO.

Russia's aim also goes beyond the ex-Soviet space. While everybody was focused on Ukraine, Russian proxies fighting in the Central African Republic Civil War made gains, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia establishes a statelite state in Africa the same way it did in the Middle East (Syria).

 

Edited April 28 by FfFfFfFF

[pachinko 7,529]

Has the world forgotten about Ukraine? 

[FfFfFfFF 51,774]

Over the last day the Russians had some success in the east and tensions continue to rise in Transnistria, for some reason of the other.

 

1) It seems like the Russians want to advance from Izyum into three directions: west, southwest (to Barvinkove) and southeast (to Slovyansk). The Russians made gains along these axes and according to ISW, their advancement in the west is meant to join the one in the southwest rather than bypass the entire Donbas and head south.

 

 

 

 

2) Russian forces advanced in various locations in Donbas, capturing settlements such as Novotoshkirske around Severodonetsk and Zarichne around Rubizhne. Seems that Russia also made some progress in Popasna.

 

 

 

 

 

 

3) In Mariupol, Azovstal Steel Plant remains under Ukrainian control.

 

 

 

 

4) As Ukraine reclaimed ground in Kherson, Russia's attempts to advance towards Mykolaiv were unsuccessful. Russia continues its efforts to establish a Kherson People’s Republic by holding a referendum. This will replace the previous administration and help Russia solidify its control over the region. It remains to be seen what territory it and other satelets alike (for instance, the potential Zaporizhia People's Republic) will claim: the occupied territory as of the date of referendum, the old administrative borders or larger areas.

 

5) The situation continues to escalate in Transnistria. Men of fighting age can no longer leave the territory, Western intelligence points to possible danger in the region and Russian propaganda falsely accuses Romania of wanting to invade Moldova’s breakaway republic. The escalation can either mean Russia wants to set the conditions for Transnistria entering the war before Odesa is taken (which would mean the Russians want to occupy Budjak and use Transnistrian troops for that - this is consistent with the fact that the only bridge connecting Budjak and the main of Ukraine was struk), or only create panic and confusion. Another possibility is that by talking about potential threats related to Romania and NATO, Russia tries to prepare its population for a general draft.

Edited April 28 by FfFfFfFF

[FfFfFfFF 51,774]

 

1) In the last 24 hours, Ukrainians recaptured the town of Kutuzivka and its surrounding area in the north (Kharkiv oblast).

 

 

 

 

2) The Ukrainians continue to defend Slovyansk from Russian attacks, however the Russians seem to want to advance in 3 directions from Izyum. According to ISW, both the western and south-western advance are meant to bypass the well-defended road towards Slovyansk, so in fact all these three directions intend to go south and eventually reach Slovyansk, which seems to be a difficult task for the Russians.

 

 

 

 

3) In Donbas, the Russians were largely unsuccessful in taking new territory. Fighting occurred in Rubizhne, where the Ukrainians repelled the Russians, also in Donetsk region further south (though is more unclear how successful the Russians were in this area). A Russian official of the so-called Donetsk People Republic said Victory Day celebrations will take place once Russia takes over the entire Donetsk Oblast, which the Russians only control around 50% of as of now.

 

 

 

4) Mariupol is not completely taken as Azovstal Steel Plant in still in the hands of city’s defenders. Russia continues its attempt to establish a firm control over the city, sending dissidents and civilians to detention. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5) In light of the possible referendum meant to establish the independence of a Kherson ‘’People’s Republic’’, the Russians recaptured few settlements along the western borders of the oblast. However, they were unsuccessful in gaining ground north, in the Kryvyi Rih direction.

Edited April 29 by FfFfFfFF

[FfFfFfFF 51,774]

In the last 24, not much happened over the country as a whole and Russia only made small gains in Donbas.

1) The Russians’ efforts to occupy land in Kharkiv oblast failed, however, there is a chance the Ukrainians will end up surrounded in the east of Izyum. Even though Russians’ advancement from Izyum to Slovyansk stalled, the Russians are attempting to reach the city from Kreminna, through Lyman. There is river Siverskyi Donets here which will play a significant role as a natural barrier/ potential landscape element that the Russians will use to encircle the Ukrainians.

 

2) The Russians scored minor gains in Donbas, notabily conquering Yampil yesterday as Rubizhne and Popasna are contested between the Russian and Ukrainian forces. If we consider how the last 2 months played out here and how this new phase of the war is going, it seems that Russia will gain very little ground each day over a longer period of time. 

 

3) In Mariupol, Russia is adamant of pushing the narrative that they liberated the city in order to improve civilians' lives and they are seemingly preparing to nationalize Ukrainian properties. Even though the city fell, Azovstal Steel Plant is not occupied and partisation actions within the city are and will remain a possibility. 

 

 

4) The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate says the aims of Russia’s false-flage attacks in Transnistria were: 1) to set the conditions for Transnistria to accept Russia’s demand to step in into the war (which would mean Russia doesn’t have as much of a firm grip here as previously thought, possibly related to corruption and secret affairs of Transnistria’s leaders over the years) and 2) to make Moldova reconsider its ascension to UE. Romanian government did not advise its citizens to leave Moldova, therefore it’s very likely the war is not imminent and the events in Transnistria were only meant to create destability (this is significant especially considering 25% of Moldova’s population has Romanian citizenship)

Edited April 30 by FfFfFfFF

[Nathan 1,846]

Thank you for keeping this updated ❤️

[FfFfFfFF 51,774]

 

[FfFfFfFF 51,774]

In the last 24 hours the invasion stalled and there is an increase possibility of Ukrainians reclaiming bits of land in the north of Kharkiv. Fighting is taking place in the east, but there no changes occured in Kherson/southern Ukraine.

 

1) In northern Kharkiv, Ukraine forces regained control over a handful of settlements (Verkhnia Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, Prylesne). This means the city will likely be shelled less intensely, plus this may distract forces from fully committing to the Donbas front (blue- Ukrainian control, red- Russian control).

 

 

2) Around Izyum, the situation remained stagnant. The Russian did not get closer to Barkinkove, neither Barvinkove. 

The Russians didn’t seize new territories in Donetsk and Luhansk. It seems that Russia’s plan is to take over Popasna and Rubizhne and head westerwards towards Lyman and Slovyansk, where they expect to link up with the axis of advancement going south from Izyum. 

Russia may be pushing the frontline very little in the south of Donetsk 1. In Mariupol, the Azovstal Steel Plant still didn't surrender.

 

Edited May 1 by FfFfFfFF

[FfFfFfFF 51,774]

The map on 18 March vs 1 May

They talked so much about regrouping to take Donbas and for what?

Edited May 1 by FfFfFfFF

[LilyLark 8,427]

Welp. So apparently the Time (London, not NYC) published a piece stating Russia is defn. intent on capturing Moldova as a whole (not just Transnistria)...and unless I misunderstood the piece, the argument was that they will target Moldova before Odesa.

[FfFfFfFF 51,774]

During the last day, there were news that Russia wants to replace Ukraine’s national currency to the rubble in the occupied territories, a sign that Putin wants to permanently seize the southern and eastern portions of Ukraine (this was clear from the beginning really, but this gives an additional confirmation this is the case).

 

 

 

1) In around Izyum, the Russians stopped making gains and may abandon their plans to drive south of the city all together and choose to advance to Lyman from the east instead. The general involved in the military effort here was seemingly killed, which is explains Russians' inertia over the last days.

 

 

 

 

 

2) In Donbas, the invasion stalled. Russia’s attacks in the south of the province (to Mar’inka, Zelene Pole, and Vremivka) were unsuccessful. Reportedly, the Russians want to reach Kurakhove to the NW of the Donetsk. We are close to 3 months into the conflict and the frontline here is to a great extend the same as it was pre-invasion (see the purple color).

 

3) In Kherson, Russia attempts to reach Kryvyi Rih by attacking the settlements in the north of the oblast. According to ISW, Russia’s goals include eventually launching offensives against Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih, but attempting to take the cities while they fight for Donbas at the same time would likely pose a lot of problems.

Edited May 2 by FfFfFfFF