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Putin invades Ukraine


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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

Welp. So apparently the Time (London, not NYC) published a piece stating Russia is defn. intent on capturing Moldova as a whole (not just Transnistria)...and unless I misunderstood the piece, the argument was that they will target Moldova before Odesa.

Russians (the regime) are masters of manipulation and mixed messaging, nobody can't definitely answer why Transnistria is mentioned so often even though it doesn't completely makes sense for them to enter the war. I can't find the article, but there seem to be two camps: people saying Russia will threatened Moldova only after Odesa is taken, and people saying Russia will want to establish a footold west of Odesa before attemping to take it. Personally, I find the arguments of the first camp more likely and I think Russia benefits from unrest and confusion in Moldova, but at the same time, we can't fully now..

 

Edited by FfFfFfFF
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⬆️(He’s the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister) United Nations secretary-general António Guterres has made a direct plea to Russian present Putin, saying: “In the name of humanity bring your troo

omg. This is so damn frustrating...war in Europe...never thought our generation would witness this. Praying for Ukraine and the people there and I am praying this is not a bloody long lasting war...go

The 2020’s decade has brought out the worst qualities in humans.  

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Is it just me or did the last 2 pages of this thread dissapear? @Magui I don't see your reply from yesterday.

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Sarah H
33 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Is it just me or did the last 2 pages of this thread dissapear? @Magui I don't see your reply from yesterday.

Yeah there's been a problem with the board and all the posts from the past day have gone. 

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1 hour ago, Sarah H said:

Yeah there's been a problem with the board and all the posts from the past day have gone. 

So thankfully we were not hacked by FSB agents. :air:

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@PartySick Do you know if there is a way to recover the old posts? :fatcat: I am asking this because I consider eventually taking all these daily updates and putting them in a single file once everything is over.

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47 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

@PartySick Do you know if there is a way to recover the old posts? :fatcat: I am asking this because I consider eventually taking all these daily updates and putting them in a single file once everything is over.

I'm not sure but I can ask Admin. It was just a single day lost it seems so you'd just need to look back to yesterday if not.

I'd do anything to numb the flame
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FfFfFfFF

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On 2 May, Russia did not conduct any ground attacks, only shelling/ use or artillery, but on 3 May, the fighting began again.

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1) Around Kharkiv, Ukraine reclaimed some land in the north-east of the city, but is not known exactly over how many settlements it regained control.

 

 

 

 

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2) In Donbas, after taking control of Yampil, the Russians reached Lyman. Yesterday they focused on completing the capture of Rubizhne and Popasna, which according to Institue for the Study of War, they will use for a future attempt to take over Severodonetsk. It also seems that the Russians no longer try to advance to Slovyansk from the north-west (Izyum), but from the east (Lyman, Sivers'k).

 

Screenshot_438.png

 

 

3) According to the Institute for the Study of War, there were no confirmed attacks in the south, but Russia prepares to advance towards Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhia, specifically wanting to capture Orihiv in the Zaporizhia direction.

 

 

Screenshot_437.png

 

4) The Russians launched a third strike at the bridge over Dniester's estuary. This is pretty significant, because destroying the bridge would disrupt the flow of supplies coming from Romania to Odesa and isolate Budjak/ southern Bessarabia from the rest of Ukraine.

 

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Posted (edited)

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Ukraine's counter-offensives over the last days in the north of Kharkiv made the Russians retreat 40kms to the east and allowed Ukrainian forces to reach the Molodova village.

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1) According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russians now have the option of attempting to retake these lost settlements in the north of the Kharkiv (in order to continue to threaten it with artillery), or abandon the area all togheter.

Even though the supply links to Izyum were not directely affected, the Russians took the decision to move them further to the east (the offensive to Barvinkove also resumed on 3 May).

FR3uNFGWQAANZF0?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

 

2) In Donbas, no ground attacks happened on 3 May, but according to ISW, Slovyansk and Lyman continue to be likely targets for Russians' advancements as Rubizhne and Popasna continue to be contested. There are reports that Russia's plans for Mariupol is to include in the so-called Donetsk People's Republic and eventually annex the whole of DPR to Russia, while other signs point to the city being annexed straight to Rostov  Oblast.

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3) The Russians conduced limited attacks in Zaporizhia in the direction of Huliapole, but they were unsuccessful in sezing new territory. In Odesa region, Ukrainian sources claim they discovered a Russian drone, which corroborated with the growing tensions in Transnistria, might mean Russia has immediate interests in the region.

Screenshot_438.png

 

 

4) Interestingly, Russia send missiles into the Transcarpatica region 1, a region inhabited to a great extend by non-Ukrainian ethnicities (Rusyns, Hungarians, Romanians) and largely spared by war so far. Coincidentially, an Ukrainian official revealed that Hungary's President Viktor Orban knew of the war and was offered Transcarpatica by Putin. In Hungary the desire to reclaim the WW1 loses is unfortunately prevalent.

 

Edited by FfFfFfFF
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13 hours ago, PartySick said:

I'm not sure but I can ask Admin. It was just a single day lost it seems so you'd just need to look back to yesterday if not.

There is need to ask Admin because I was actually able to find most of the previous posts in Cache!

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4 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

There is need to ask Admin because I was actually able to find most of the previous posts in Cache!

Oh neat :tony:

He said the posts weren't recoverable anyway :giveup:

I'd do anything to numb the flame
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Posted (edited)

During the last 24 hours, Russians made very little confirmed advancements in eastern Ukraine.

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Even in phase 2 of the conflict, the Russians remain for the most part unable to break through the Ukrainian defences in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate concludes the provocations in Transnistria were  meant to distract Ukrainian defenders from fighting in the east, rather than pose a concrete danger.

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1) Belarus will hold military drills on its soil, but according to experts, the threat posed by them to Ukraine is very low.

 

 

 

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2) Russia's goals in Donbas include the occupation of Slovyansk, Lyman and Kramatorsk, which are all said to be unlikely in the near term. That said, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russians are heading south to Slovyansk from two directions: from Izyum and from the north-west of Luhansk.

 

 

3) The Russians were succesful in seizingScreenshot_452.png some territory 15kms north of Lyman, at the same time it seems that the news that Yampil fell (10kms from Lyman) might have been false. It is also reported that the Russians continue to advance into Popasna.


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4) Russian forces entered for the first time in the Azostal Steel Plant's undeground. Russia continues to enforce its administrative control over the city and it's possible the city will play a symbolic role in the upcoming Victory Day parade.

 

 

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5) The Russians launched unsuccessful attacks in the south of Donetsk and in Zaporizhia.

 

 

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6) Ukrainian forces regained control over 4 settlements in Kherson oblast. The are reports the Russians prepare to launch offensives in Mykolaiv and in Dnepropetrovsk oblasts in the vicinity of Kherson.

Edited by FfFfFfFF
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In 2014, the Pope released two doves while praying for peace in Ukraine and they were instantenously attacked by a crow and seagul. They were nonetheless able to survive and fly away.

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This is honestly creepy, I don't get why it didn't receive mainstream attention at the time. :duck:

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4 new explosions reported in Rîbniţa in Transnistria.

 

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Posted (edited)

FSCF0MWXIAISEUB?format=jpg&name=4096x409

On May 5-6, Ukraine liberated some areas around Kharkiv, Izyum and Kherson, while Russia failed to take control of more territory in Donbas.

Screenshot_492.png

 

1) The military exercises in Belarus are said to not pose any danger to Ukraine. They seem rather meant to keep the situation tense and fix some Ukrainian troops in place (they have exactly the same purpose as the provocations in Transnistria).

 

 

Screenshot_501.png2) The Ukrainians officially announced they started the counter-offensives around Kharkiv and Izyum. Ukrainians were able to liberate several villages in this region to the north of Kharkiv and around Izyum. If the successes continue, that would take the pressure off Kharkiv and threaten Russians's lines of communication to Russia proper. The Russians not only failed to get hold of the lost settlements, but are increasingly vulnerable in this area.

 

Screenshot_524.png3) In Donbas, as it was the case for almost the entirety of the war, the Russians largely failed to meet their objectives. Despite attacks on Severodonetsk, Lyman and Popasna, the Russians didn't gain ground. Also concerning Donbas - there are rumors Russia will merge the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist republics into one bigger Donbas Republic prior to annexating them.

Screenshot_533.png

 

4) In southern Donbas, Russians' claims of seizing Troitske are probably false, while in Mariupol, the Russians entered inside the Azostal Plant. The last Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are seemingly losing ground. 

 

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5) The Russians continued attacks in Zaporizhia oblast (specifically targeting Huliapole). However, it was reported the Russians are more cautious compared to the early days of the war.

 

 

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6) Lastly, Ukrainians announced they liberated a handful of villages across the border between Kherson and Mykolaiv, to the west and north of Kherson province.

Edited by FfFfFfFF
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Posted (edited)

FSHMvyQWQAMd4np?format=jpg&name=4096x409

In the last 24 hours, it was reported Ukrainians continued what became their most successful counter-offensive yet in Kharkiv. On the less bright side, the Russians might set the conditions to occupy Severodonetsk.

Screenshot_548.png

1) Ukrainians were able to retake several key areas and villages (including Peremoha, Ukrainka, Fedorivka, Shestakove, Oleksandrivka etc) in their biggest and most well-organized counter-attack so far. Given their success in this part of the country, the Ukrainians might attempt to liberate more land in eastern Ukraine and cut Russians' lines of communication toward Izyum (though they are at a relatively great distance and separated from Kharkiv by a river).

 

Screenshot_550.png2) In Donbas, Ukrainian defenders reppeled attacks around Barkinkove and Popasna, however the Russians were able to capture several villages around Severodonetsk. The city is in a vulnerable position as is being approached from the north, east and south-east. One source says that if the Russians cross the Severodonetsk river, they will likely attempt to seize Lysychansk prior to taking Severodonetsk. Unfortunately, the terrain here is dry because of the lack of rain and this gives the Russians an advantage.

Screenshot_557.png 

3) The Russians won't be able to fully secure Mariupol in time for Victory Day. In their attempt to fully incorporate the city into Russia's, road signs in Ukrainian are being replaced with ones in Russian. Is unkown what is happening af Azovstal Plant after the Russians went underground.

 

 

Screenshot_555.png

 

 

4) Except for an unsucesful attack on Malynikva, nothing happened on the ground in southern Ukraine yesterday. Ukraine says Transnistria's claims of Ukrainian forces shooting the border with Moldova are simply provocations.

Edited by FfFfFfFF
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